Canada's housing markets get a lot of publicity.

The country has avoided a major housing crash like those that took place in the United States and Ireland in recent years, and Canada' average house prices have been rising steadily -- due primarily to the hot housing markets in Vancouver and Toronto.

"The average transaction price for Canadian home sales hit an all-time high of more than $500,000 last month," wrote Douglas Porter, chief economist of BMO Capital Markets recently. "That's up more than 60 per cent versus 2008, about the time the bears started growling."

Porter poked fun at some of headlines from economists and journalists who made startling doom and gloom predictions over the years, such as "Canadian home prices will crash 25 per cent" (a prediction made in 2011—prices have actually gone up by 35 per cent since then) and "Inside the great real estate crash of 2013" (which didn't happen).

"Hey, forecasting is hard," says Porter. "Da bears may some day be right, especially on the hottest markets, but getting the timing down is half the challenge."

A new report by Ben Myers, senior vice president of market research and analytics at Fortress Real Developments, says the latest round of dire predictions for the housing market are based on shallow analysis and inadequate data.

"It is impossible to fully assess the impact of foreign buyers, inappropriate mortgage activity or the extent to which Canadians are responsible borrowers based on the currently available data," says Myers. "With the limited information out there, and our own survey research, we feel the fears of a major house price correction are overblown."

In a public survey conducted by Fortress, 42 per cent of respondents listed overpriced housing as the top catalyst for a housing correction in Canada.

"Commentary around housing speculation and greed inflating the domestic housing market is a common theme," says Myers in the report. "Most of the ‘overvaluation' metrics are statistically unsound, and the results are terribly misleading."

Myers says that seven of the 11 major housing markets in Canada are currently experiencing stagnant or slightly poor market conditions, "yet the media and others that cover the market continue to use the phrase ‘hot Canadian housing market'. It is easy to see why many are confused about the market overall, and with the national, metro and neighbourhood level valuations."

In addition, "The regional divide in housing market conditions, the wide-ranging differences in the composition of built forms (for example, some provinces build a much higher share of rental) and age/growth of the housing stock makes it difficult to compare house prices to incomes and rents on a national level. This obviously doesn't stop many outlets from doing so and the public eats up the results year after year."

Myers says that many economists and financial institutions have warned of overheated housing, with "the international sources like Finch Ratings, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) making the most egregious housing price evaluations." In the Fortress public survey, "These foreign sources scored poorly in a separate poll question on the trustworthiness of sources of housing analysis on the Canadian market, ranking behind bloggers and financial institutions that work outside the housing industry."

Dozens of housing reports and forecasts are issued every year in Canada by government agencies; banks and other financial institutions; real estate companies; mortgage firms; real estate, home builder and mortgage associations; universities; third-party research firms; and the foreign sources mentioned above. The Fortress survey found that reports by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. and the Bank of Canada are the most trusted reports. Also ranking high on the list are reports by domestic bank economists.

Third-party research firms such as Altus Group, Realnet Canada and Urbanation came in next, followed by housing industry reports such as those issued by real estate boards and companies. The foreign sources reports finished last in the trustworthiness poll.

Myers says that "likely the most surprising result was how high the housing industry participants scored in these results…you shouldn't ask a barber if you need a haircut, should you?"

But Myers says, "The truth is that many members of the real estate industry have a unique perspective and inside knowledge of what is occurring in the residential marketplace, and are often quite conservative in their forecasts and analysis." He notes that the Canadian Real Estate Association and the largest real estate firms in the country, Royal LePage and Re/Max, all underestimated average resale price increases in 2015.

Myers says that economic fundamentals and demographics indicate that the housing market is not overvalued and in danger of imminent collapse.

"It is more likely that the catalyst that eventually causes national house prices to decline in Canada will be another Black Swan, or a completely unexpected global financial event, as opposed to ‘greedy and speculative' homebuyers, or a completely unexpected and sharp increase in interest rates," Myers says.