Focus on "Local" for Real Estate Prices

Written by Posted On Monday, 02 October 2006 17:00

Canadian property owners intent on following real estate price fluctuations using mainstream media reports from centres across Canada may be searching too far afield for the information they need. Local details should be more significant than national patterns. Local real estate professionals and local news are excellent resources regarding real estate prices on specific streets, in particular condominium complexes or in certain subdivisions.

By now most people are familiar with the "location, location, location" mantra of real estate value, but too often this triple-whammy criterion receives a dismissive giggle rather than the serious consideration it deserves. Paying attention to local changes, improvements and patterns is crucial when determining real estate value for many reasons:

  • Competition: If three similar properties were for sale on one street, an individual property owner may receive a slightly lower offer from a buyer who is comparison shopping. In an area where houses rarely come up for sale, a single listing may be snapped up at a price that reflects the rarity of this event.

  • Changes: A new neighbourhood development may drive area prices up or down depending on how well this project is integrated into the neighbourhood. Employment creation or job loss in the area may drive prices, respectively, up or down.

  • Total cost: Condominiums, houses and other properties that require little additional cash outlay, other than the relatively minor cost of redecorating, may exhibit more price stability that real estate where major renovation, modernization or accessibility up-grading is essential to property enjoyment.

  • Demographics: Population shifts on a local level may result in a net migration into or out of the area and a parallel impact on housing demand.

These and other factors affect local real estate prices, but there are also elements within each individual transaction that reflect positively or negatively on the final sale price. Learn the context for a sale price before using it as a benchmark for pricing your real estate. A property owner may accept a lower sale price and still consider they've received full compensation when there is perceived monetary value in other aspects of the sale, or the seller may demand a higher price when asked to make concessions to a buyer's needs:

  • Closing Date: If the seller has already bought and wants to match the closing date on the new property, this may allow a buyer to negotiate on selling price.

  • Conditions and Financing: When the buyer asks for few, if any, "subject to" concessions from the seller, including assistance in financing the transaction, there may be more room for price negotiation.

  • Inclusions: If the seller is not asked to include appliances, lighting fixtures, furnishings and other items in the transaction, a seller who will therefore not have to replace these items in their next property may be more flexible in negotiations.

Continue to track Canadian and North American real estate news, since buyers and sellers can take their cue from media hype, but search for local relevance. The insight and knowledge contributed by an experienced local real estate professional may prove invaluable in keeping abreast of shifts in pricing climate:

  • For instance, special reports like the TD Bank Financial Group 's "Long-Term Outlook for Canadian Home Prices" are useful tools for clarifying real estate pricing issues, including inflation and interest rates, involved in pricing: "The main conclusion is that the national average of home prices is expected to rise at close to 4 per cent average annual rate over the next 25 years, but with considerable variation at the individual city or neighbourhood level and with significant volatility from year to year." However, research findings and economic analysis may not be as easy for sellers and buyers to apply locally as it would be for real estate professionals to extrapolate to specific locations.

  • Statistics from real estate boards and other local organizations may offer useful context when the investigation goes beyond broad-stroke regional figures. For instance, according to Toronto Real Estate Board statistics for September 2006, "... the resale housing market in the Toronto Area performed solidly in the first half of September ... . Prices continued their upward trend, with the mid-month average price of $335,208 eclipsing the mid-September 2005 mark of $328,266 by two per cent. Average prices year-to-date are five percent higher than figures reported to the same point in 2005."

    House owners in the "Toronto Area" must be cautious before applying that 5 per cent increase to the value of their property. The reported 2,913 sales to mid-month are lower than the comparable period last year and reflect strong activity in condominium and townhouse sales. Some areas experienced overall increases in transactions in excess of 50 per cent, while others had less activity. Which statistics are most useful to sellers in their determination of the best pricing strategy and to buyers evaluating relative value? That's what professionals are paid to know.

Just as an average increase in area or regional prices does not add equal value to every property in the area concerned, an average decrease in prices does not forecast doom for every property owner. Facts matter when markets shift. Solid, reliable, intelligently-presented local real estate information is essential to owners and buyers intent on keeping a "pricing" finger on the real estate pulse -- locally, that is.

Sources: TD, TREB, The Catalyst

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