| October 26, 1999 |
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Peter G. Miller
The word has been given: In the new world of online commerce and communication there will be less need for big malls, warehouses, old-style suburbs, and traditional downtown office centers.
Those are some of the thoughts to be found in Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2000, a report from Price WaterhouseCoopers and Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, respectively a major constancy and a real estate investment firm with some $37 billion in property interests worldwide.
The scenario they suggest looks like this:
The reason for these changes, in part, is the Internet. What we're really seeing is the emergence of "24-hour cities," a new lifestyle made possible by technology and the search for efficiency.
I suspect the report authors are on to something, and yet while technology changes with rapidity I'm not so sure about human preferences.
Shopping malls, as an example, have always faced competition from catalogs, and yet there's room for both.
Big-box warehouses surely work well for big companies -- Amazon has 2.7 million square feet of warehouse space -- and yet there are a lot of smaller companies with space requirements.
We already have 24-hour core areas such as Manhattan and downtown Chicago, and yet a whole bunch of people would rather live where life is less hectic.
As to being the first with a major project, did you ever meet a developer who did not think his or her project was unneeded or second-best?
Moreover, the real contest is not e-commerce versus bricks-and-mortar, it's the transition to a clicks-and-bricks marketplace. In time you'll be able to compare prices with other outlets, check to see what's in stock in a local store before leaving home, decide to pick-up goods locally or have them delivered, return stuff locally, and check your account electronically.
In effect, shopping online does not mean local stores will be abandoned, rather it means that more choices will emerge.
In looking toward the future, I agree that the Internet has much to offer, and yet I would hope we desire more than to live in communities designed largely to assure that worker bees are efficient and productive.
It's a matter of personal preference, I'm sure, but somehow when I hear predictions of coming change I keep thinking about Gandhi and his remark that "there is more to life than increasing its speed."
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