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The growing disparity of wealth, not just between those at the top of the income scale and those at the bottom but also those in the middle, has been chosen by a panel of experts as the single most important influence that will shape the American metropolis over the next 50 years.
As might be expected, the group of 149 members of the Society of
American City and Regional Planning History had an easier time with the past 50 years, which
was covered in part one of this series yesterday, than they did with the next five decades.
But, reports Robert Fishman of Rutgers University, who led a panel of 10
urban specialists in developing a list of 25 possibilities for each era, most of
them foresee the continuation and even the intensification of the urban crisis that
characterized that last 50 years.
And if they are correct about their prediction concerning the disparity
of wealth, some of the negative consequences are detailed in the rest of the list of top
influences a perpetual underclass, deterioration of the first-ring suburbs, and greater isolation by
the most affluent in gated communities and other exclusive preserves at the edge of the region
Surprisingly, the Internet ranked only sixth on the list. But it might
have ranked higher, says Fishman, if its impact on metropolia was clearer.
Here's a rundown of the Society's top ten list:
Growing Disparities of Wealth: An increasingly divided metropolis is
on the horizon as home builders increasingly concentrate on expensive trophy houses or tract
mansions and commercial developers push upscale malls and office parks near these
enclaves, leaving the bulk of the populace with long, difficult commutes.
Also, the service void, including the quality of schools, between elite suburbs and
everywhere else will continue.
Suburban Political Majority: When it comes to political clout, the
suburbs rule, and will continue to rule, says Fishman. "If, as many argue, the most important
future challenge for metropolitan areas will be to create some kind of effective regional
governance for both central cities and their suburbs, this will happen only in ways the suburbs support."
Aging Baby Boomers: Though suburbia has exhibited an unexpected
capacity to take care of their elderly, most communities have yet to make the social
investments necessary to provide for the 61 million surviving boomers between ages 66 and 84 a group
that will amount to18 percent of our total population by 2030.
Perpetual Underclass: Perhaps what Fishman calls "the most disturbing
implication" of the poll's No. 1 prediction, the disenfranchised largely African
Americans and Hispanics have been left stranded in the cities. "And there is little evidence
government can scale the problems," the historian warns.
Smart Growth: For planned growth to be effective, proponents must
realize that such initiatives require regional action and acceptance, conditions "that have
rarely been met," says Fishman. "Nevertheless, the grassroots desire to stop sprawl and the loss of
open space have made smart growth a movement that politicians and developers must reckon
with."
The Internet: The web will invariably change the structure of the
built environment over the next five decades. But it is impossible at this stage to imagine
what kind of new metropolis will emerge as a result. However, it should be pointed out that
some observers believe the information super highway will doom cities to obsolescence.
Decline of the First-Tier Suburbs: Many of the initial suburbs built
in the early years after World War II have deteriorated badly. Too close to the central city and
its problems but too far from their affluent edge, they often lack the tax base and local
governments to deal effectively with their social ills. But if they are allowed to atrophy, the result will
be an increasingly divided
metropolis.
Smaller Households: Households are shrinking, which could spell the
end of suburbia, or at least the "somewhat mythical" single-family detached house. Perhaps it
could even contribute to the revival of central cities as non-traditional households
seek the flexibility, convenience and diversity cities provide, Fishman hopes.
Outer Beltways: Most of the experts who responded to the survey
believe the record $218 billion in federal funds to be spent on non-highway uses under the 1998
Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century will be used the same old way to lay more
concrete and asphalt to relieve inner beltway congestion by connecting the outer suburbs directly
with one another. If this forecast is correct, it would intensify many of the other top ten
predictions.
Racial Integration: In a projection that goes against the trend, the
experts are hoping the central cities and first-tier 'burbs will be able to support genuinely
diverse, culturally vibrant neighborhoods.
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