In an eye-opening article of the January 2000 BUILDER Magazine, "A New Dawn", the magazine staff's research reveals "Mega-Trends" it predicts will revolutionize the way builders do business in the new century. Citing the incredible advancements of the last hundred years, BUILDER sees great things for the future, but warns that no one should feel that their past successes are the laurels upon which they should predict future euphoria in the building industry. Some things will never change, however; " . . it's all about good craftsmanship, and that hasn't changed since the days of the early hominids. This business is all about finding the right piece of land, scheduling like the devil, building a quality home, and having the street smarts to sell it."

Here is a sampling of Mega-Trends BUILDER includes in its predictions:

Demographics

As one of the fastest growing segments of the home-buying market in the 1990s, immigrant and minority households will be changing the face of American homebuilding. Builders may be doing proverbial paradigm shifts as to what these groups will buy and whether they want to be "grouped" in geographic areas at all. According to Bill Ofstrem, a builder surveying land for future development in San Diego County, "Many ethnic buyers are second-generation Americans. They do not want to be seen as outsiders." This growing segment of homebuyers, although proud of their heritage, want to be treated on a equal plane with the rest of the population, with lifestyle choices including those incorporated throughout other new developments, such as golf, tennis, jogging, swimming, or cycling.

According to the article, some subtle changes are being implemented for various groups according to what may appeal to them. In Atlanta, for instance, a prosperous African-American population does not seem to demand more diverse floor plan selections from homebuilders, such as John Weiland Homes. They do, however, appear to prefer a more custom, European and sophisticated appearance to their homes' elevations, and builders are beginning to take note.

With Baby Boomers turning 50 as quickly as we can say …"and how old were you during the 'Age of Aquarius'?" households age 55-64 will be the fastest growing segment of the home buying sector in the first decade of the new millennium. This group exercises twice as much as their parents (See "Baby Boomers De-Bunk Retirements Myths"). Basketball and softball will replace bocci ball and badminton, second careers and high-tech home offices will replace the corporate grind, and, although Boomers will gravitate towards vacation-like surroundings for new home communities, they will generally not wander too far from grown children and the roots they finally put down as they became part of the "establishment."

Answers to Sprawl

Builders and developers will not be able to satisfy "all of the people all of the time," according to the article. Growth does not occur without trade-offs. Suburban sprawl can be lessened with high-density housing, but will there be a demand for homes such as these? And if everyone wants lower taxes, how can they take the NIMBY (not-in-my-backyard) approach to low income housing nearby, with a perceived eventuality of lowering their own property values in the end?

BUILDER cites the traditional neighborhood developments (TNDs) as the mostly likely model of neighborhood concepts to get permit approval stamps. These may be described as transit-oriented, in-fill parcels and brownfield developments. City planners love the concept, but many homebuyers may not be impressed unless the formulas are correct, market-wise. The question for the future is how to make this concept work best; too little density finds builders spending high dollar amounts on preparing these unimproved areas for the new and shiny without the necessary profits reaped to make it feasible. Too high a density does not appeal to homebuyers who resist the "apartment-like" feeling of smelling someone else's cooking odors. And, although buyers will pay well for shorter commutes, they must feel comfortable as well, with planned open space giving them room to breathe, walk dogs and play catch.

In newer suburban areas, demand for controlled or slowed growth continues to spread as the public perceives the "rape of the land" having already taken place in some areas. According to the article, "As metropolitan areas expand, many first-ring suburbs now find themselves in the throes of dis-investment, the same problem that afflicted cities in the '70s and '80s. "First-ring" is loosely defined as some of the earliest suburbs built, during a time when radio stations played songs depicting suburbia as "houses made of ticky-tacky."

High Tech Homes

BUILDER asks the question, "Just how much are buyers will to spend on a 'smart' home?" Will they buy HDTV, ISDN lines, and "Total Recall" type monitoring systems that "know" what type of music you like and keep an electronic eye on the kids in the pool, while turning on the oven to prepare dinner? New homes are even now being built with more computer power than many businesses had in the '80s, with a "quiet revolution" in new home wiring taking place. Structured wiring is now becoming standardized all over the country, providing buyers high-speed Internet access, network capabilities for home-based businesses and telecommuting, and distributed video systems that can send entertainment to every room in the house with just one set of components.

With structured wiring becoming the norm, true home automation may not be far behind. Those of us that chuckled at film clips from the '60s predicting push-button ease for home tasks, may soon be clearing our throats over the "Big Brother is us" syndrome in the new millennium. The article cites rising energy costs, air quality, electric utility deregulation, and a new generation of Internet-ready appliances as catalysts for the home automation boom-to-come. And, although it may occur in random, piecemeal fashion, we may marvel at voice-recognition technology sooner than we think, imitating scenes from Star Trek and "2001: A Space Odyssey", but wondering whose voice it is answering us back.

In addition to these Mega-Trends, BUILDER studies subjects such as the labor shortage in the trades, the quest for higher productivity through high-tech advancements, resource efficiency, and the building sciences themselves, sparking futuristic predictions and thought-provoking solutions to these issues.

What we know for sure, however, is that the new century holds limitless possibilities for the homebuilding industry. As sophistication levels rise within the home-buying public, builders must position themselves to grant the demands of these consumers. Their responses will no doubt confirm that American innovation and the pioneering spirit that has made this country great will continue to do so well into the new millennium.

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