Realty Times September 21, 2001

Have We Reached Capitulation?
by Blanche Evans

Lane Newbury, a retired investment banker living in Dallas, says that when the Dow crossed 10,000 a few years ago, he sold his holdings. While he sat on the sidelines during the technology boom, he also avoided the painful slide, and he says that he is just as happy to be avoiding the volatility of the current market.

"The nice thing about owning real estate is that you don't pick up the paper every morning and see what your house is worth," says Newbury. "With stocks, I don't see any sign that we have reached capitulation."

Capitulation? It's the stock market investor's state of crying Uncle. "That's the point that people call their brokers and say, sell everything," explains Newbury.

So if the stock market is too painful for most investors, will real estate and its related stocks look more attractive by comparison?

"You may be seeing some movement in some sectors related to the attacks, but the slide of the markets is about overvaluation, not fear," counsels Newbury.

Continuing low interest rates and new and existing home sales suggest that they might, but conflicting news and data from real estate and home-related stocks indicate that volatility is far from over.

Housing starts were down 6.9 percent in August, signaling a significant drop in new home building. Massive airline layoffs will affect key hubs across the nation, where real estate experts say the impact will certainly be felt.

Homestore's stock is taking the most punishment in the race to capitulation, but it is hard to determine whether the stock is taking a beating, closing at $8.47 Thursday, because of panic on the Street, or because it has yet to make a profit, according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP,) or because investors are worried about their subscription renewals

Homestore would not comment on the state of its stock or speculate on the reasons why it is slumping.

HomeSeekers has already been through its punishment phase, having born the brunt of the dot-com fallout last year. But that didn't stop investors from losing more by the end of trading on Wednesday.

Homeseekers has sold the majority of its holdings to an investor group called Homemark and is awaiting a special shareholder proxy to vote on the sale. Consultant and spokesperson John Giaimo believes that despite the terrorist attacks, business will continue as usual.

"There's a pause due to the enormity of the crisis," said Giaimo. "but, I'm assuming we are still on schedule. There should be a shareholder meeting announcement this week as to when a shareholder vote will be."

Cendant Corp. was hit with the double whammy - having key business models in the real estate and travel industries, both to be heavily affected by traveler fears and massive airline layoffs. Cendant is conducting a formal internal assessment to determine how earnings assessments will be affected.

Shares in Cendant closed at $11.69 Thursday on the NYSE, down from a 52-week high of $21.53, but above the 52-week low of $8.12.

Home improvement leaders, Home Depot and Lowe's, on the other hand, are riding out the storm with slight gains since the terrorist attacks. Analyst upgrades issued Monday and Tuesday raised both stocks from buys and market performs to strong buys. Home Depot earns $1.14 per share and pays a dividend of $0.16 a share, while Lowe's earns $1.16 per share and pays a dividend of $0.08 per share.

"There are two good times to act in the stock market," says Newbury. "When things couldn't look any better and when they look like they can't get worse."



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