It may take a few years to shake out what the numbers really say, but there is some growing evidence that Realtors are increasing in number and that more may be entering the real estate field as a first career. When demographics change, other changes are sure to follow.

That's why the National Association of Realtors' will be increasing the frequency of its member surveys, and its buyer and seller surveys, so that the organization can learn more about how to grow, retain and serve its formidable membership.

What the NAR would like to know is the same thing every company that markets products to Realtors would - who are these folks? What interests them? What are their skills? How do they work? How do they impact traditional business models? What trends are they producing? What will real estate business models look like in the future?

Changes are happening rapidly, and the NAR plans to use part of its revenues from an increased membership to step up its member surveys, which track demographics, economics and professional characteristics of members, from every other year to annually. It will correspondingly speed up its surveys of buyers and sellers so that the membership can learn the attitudes, search habits, preferred housing and preferred Realtor business models of housing consumers.

A countertrend in growth

While the numbers fluctuate from month to month, due to the attrition of members as well as additions, the membership of the NAR stands today at about 880,000.

"When I came in 1999, our boiler plate was 740,000 members," says Steve Cook, spokesperson for the NAR.

That's fast growth, especially when you consider that nationwide, the number of people who are licensed to sell real estate is declining according to the Association of Real Estate License Law Officials (ARELLO.)

ARELLO's numbers say that the 2001 total U.S. count of licensees was 2,309,985, while 2002 showed a reduction of one percent to 2,282,589 licensees. While same-period numbers do not exist between ARELLO and the NAR, it's clear that the NAR is doing something right. But what?

"We have been conducting a multimillion dollar public awareness campaign that every Realtor contributes to in order to promote the Realtor brand," explains Cook, "and this is our fourth year. When our spots break, I would argue that our advertising is having a positive effect on membership, and in surveys we are seeing that consumers would prefer to work with a Realtor."

Is NAR getting younger?

For a while, it looked like real estate was the profession of choice for middle-aged, second-career seekers. The industry has come under criticism by consumers (and frustrated Internet vendors) for failing to keep up with the times, especially in using technology, but that may change as NAR studies the correlation between the age of Realtors and whether they enter the field before or after pursuing other careers.

In 1978, the median age of a Realtor was 42. According to the latest Realtor survey, the 2001 NAR Member Profile, the median broker and agent are both 52 years old.

"By 2003, that could change," suggests Cook. "In 2001, seven percent of Realtors said real estate was their first career. We will ask that again this year. We didn't ask that before 2001. My suspicion is that it would slightly increase in the last two years. There is a lot of growth entering real estate from other professions, but the percentage increase in first-career Realtors will increase over time."

In recent years, the nation has lost thousands of jobs, encouraging many to seek their fortune in real estate as a second or third career choice, but the NAR sees growing evidence that many are entering the real estate field right out of college.

"There is more training being offered at the collegiate level, programs in place all over the country like Texas A & M and Virginia Commonwealth," says Cook. "They are bigger programs than they were because of the health of the real estate sector. Real estate is a more complex transaction, and it is more complicated by technology, laws, legislation, and changes in finance, so many people are finding a need to get that kind of background before entering the field."

"We continue to be pleasantly surprised," says Cook, who declined to plot-spoil the numbers. "We are seeing younger people going into real estate and more training is being offered at the undergraduate levels, so there is a continued growth of people who are entering as a primary lifetime career and who are getting training at the professional level."

He adds, "The next Member Profile will reflect some of these changes. We have had significant growth in the last two years due to the economy, and that is going to skew these other trends. The majority of newer Realtors come in from other careers - they may be laid-off telecom workers or whatever, but in the long haul, we are seeing people enter as a first career."

This is important to the lifeblood of an industry which complains of dwindling commissions and too many part-time workers.

"We view the growth as very positive," says Cook, "with additional membership we can increase services training, certification, government affairs, lobbying, and more. That number, 880,000, means a lot in Congress. We are able to generate support in that many more congressional states, and with the growth, we are able to do more in terms of services and undertake new programs that meet members' needs. We'll be able to increase the public awareness campaign to buy more radio and network television time. We were able to be on the radio from March to October, and this year, we'll have a media buy that is as large. If numbers were going the other way, it would be more difficult. The campaign is having a positive effect, and the membership is keeping the campaign positive."

The first annual buyer and seller survey will be completed mid-year, with the first annual mid-year member survey to follow, says Cook.