Realty Times March 26, 2003

Real Estate in The Uncertain Times Of War
by Greg Herder

It’s hard to grasp mentally. The United States is at war with Iraq. We see the pictures on TV, we have a vague feeling of nervousness. Yet life goes on, our daily routines keep unfolding, even if we are not totally engaged in living.

Every now and then our minds starts to race: How is the war going to affect the real estate market? How long will the war last? Will real estate come to a standstill? Will prices fall? What should I tell my clients? Can I survive financially? What should I tell my spouse? Where can I find the answers to these questions?

The times are uncertain and no one has a crystal ball that can tell us how it will all turn out. There is always the possibility it could all go south—home prices could free-fall, foreclosures could skyrocket, and our financial system could collapse and lead us into a full blown depression. I am positive there are agents in your office right now painting those pictures. The reality is that prices will probably not free-fall, people will still need to buy and sell homes, and professional agents will continue to do well.

The first thing to do is control your thinking: don’t let your imagination run wild. Most of us tend to imagine the worst-case scenario instantly. So, take a step back and look at the reality of the situation. The US is at war with Iraq, and the financial experts are split on whether war will help or hurt the economy. The real question is, “How will the war impact consumer confidence?” Consumer spending is the major force driving the US economy. If consumers spending keeps up or drops off a little, we will probably not feel a big impact. For most consumers, spending is bound to stay consistent because that’s what it costs to pay the mortgage and send their kids to school—things they are not going to suddenly stop doing.

Best of all, for the real estate market, is that everyone still needs a home to live in, and new home building is not keeping up with demand. If the economy falters, the Federal Reserve will lower the interest rate, making it even more attractive to buy a new home. Even though no one really knows what is going to happen, the odds are that things will not change so dramatically that it will be devastating. Once you realize this fact, you can move on to the issues that you can control and have an impact on, such as what to tell your clients and what marketing decisions to make.

Realize that you are a leader that your clients are going to look to for advice. Tell them that you don’t know exactly what is going to happen, but you believe that if a person invests in real estate with a long-term perspective they are going to do well. Your confidence and strength will be the confidence-builders that your clients need to get them to move forward.

In your marketing I suggest you battle the war head-on. Start by sending out a letter to everyone in your farm area and to your past client base. Express your confidence in real estate and encourage them to live their lives normally. Do not make light of the war or down play its importance. Also, avoid expressing support for or against the war. Invite people to call or e-mail you to talk about how the war will impact the real estate market. The worst thing to do is avoid dealing with the subject. If you try to avoid it, your clients will get the feeling you are simply hedging your bets and they will lose faith in your ability to deal with problems. If you would like to see a sample of this type of letter to a client, please e-mail me at greg.herder@hobbsherder.com.

Next, throw a big open house bash or block party that gets the whole neighborhood involved. This gives you a chance to reach out and touch your marketplace. Also, bringing your local neighborhood together will help them deal with their fears and make them feel less isolated.

Another technique is to send out a couple PowerKards per month showing recent sales activity. Drop the ‘Just Listeds’ for a couple months and replace them with ‘Just Solds.’

Finally, send in a steady flow of press releases (three per month) to your local media about everything you are doing. Having high visibility during times of crises will solidify you as a leader who is willing to meet difficult challenges head on.

The reality is that no matter what happens, some agents are going fail over the next year and leave real estate frustrated and disappointed, some agents will survive, and some agents will thrive. What happens to you will be determined by your thoughts and actions as we all deal with the uncertainty of the war with Iraq. In no way do I want to minimize the gravity of the war that we, as a nation, are dealing with. But I do believe that by being leaders in our profession, we can help fight the economic devastation that would come about if we, as a people, acted out of fear.



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