The California-Dreamin'-But-Leaving trip may be divided along geographical lines that are closely aligned with bubble market projection differences in the north and south.

From Los Angeles to San Diego home prices have a 5.8 percent to 7.7 percent chance of declining within the next two years. Up north, in the Silicon Valley-San Francisco Bay Area area, the price drop likelihood is as much as five times higher -- 20.4 percent to 39.5 percent (for the San Jose/Silicon Valley area, the highest in the nation), according to the latest PMI Risk Index, tabulated by PMI Mortgage Insurance Co.

The projected declines are alarming, but they shouldn't create any problems for those seeking loans to buy homes in the Silicon Valley area.

"Basically, that is a 1 in 2.5 chance (of price declines in San Jose). It doesn't predict the magnitude of any decline. Given the strength of the local real estate market in the recent past and foreseeable future, I would anticipate the PMI companies continuing their writing of policies on high LTV (loan-to-value loans," said Mike Donohoe, president of the Santa Clara County Association of Realtors.

"In fact, the market for 100 percent financing here in San Jose remains strong and I haven't seen any evidence of lenders tightening their underwriting in anticipation of a decline," said Donohoe, also broker owner of Silver Creek Financial in San Jose.

Nevertheless, it's not surprising that the U.S. Census says for the first time since it began tracking the state, more people are leaving California than are moving in from other states. From 1995 to 2000, California lost a net 755,000 residents, many of them in recent years from Northern cities. That's due in part, to the state harboring some of the highest housing costs in the nation and, more recently, because of the shrinking number of jobs in the north.

Silicon Valley lost jobs at a pace that outstripped any other metropolitan region in the nation from July 2002 to July 2003, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. Santa Clara County/Silicon Valley lost 43,300 jobs during the period. Only New York City lost a greater number of jobs -- 50,100 -- but Silicon Valley lost the largest share of jobs, 4.8 percent.

It doesn't appear to matter to most Americans who still dream of moving to California more often than any other state. Florida, Hawaii, Colorado and New York, followed the Golden State, according to a recent Harris Interactive poll about the most attractive states.

The PMI Risk Index for June 2003 also said other cities with a home price decline risk of 20 percent or more included Portland-Vancouver, OR-WA (35 percent); Dallas, TX (31.3 percent); Denver, CO (30.2 percent); Detroit, MI (28.7 percent); Greensboro-Winston Salem-High Point, NC (28.1 percent); Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA (25.6 percent); Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, Tampa-St Petersburg, NC-SC (25.1 percent); Austin-San Marcos, TX (24.2 percent); Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, NC (24.2 percent); Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI ( 21.2 percent); Kansas City, MO-KS (20.9 percent) and Indianapolis, IN (20.5 percent).

Among the 50 largest metropolitan areas the average PMI Risk Index revealed a 15.5 percent probability of experiencing a home price decline within the next two years. Just as with California, other states with regions where there is a higher probability of home price declines were also among the sought after put-down-stakes states. After New York, people most often dreamed of moving to Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, Virginia and Washington, according to Harris Interactive.

Certain states are popular often because dreamers may not be aware of the economic, political and other volatile conditions in those states, but are often attracted instead by the weather, travel destinations, diverse geography and related activities that are available.

"I'd wager that PMI spends more on research models than any other group. I cannot comment that San Jose is the most at risk because I don't have data for the other areas. I do believe that San Jose and all of Santa Clara County are at risk of price decreases. (How much) would depend on how you define the price decrease," said Richard Calhoun, broker-owner of Creekside Realty in San Jose.

"Property values will likely drop more than the median price ($565,000 in June). This is because buyers will spend as much as they can and will get more house as values decline," said Calhoun, who is also a real estate statistician who crunches area MLS numbers to create the monthly "Bay Area Real Estate Market Newsletter", a statistical analysis of five northern California Counties, including Silicon Valley.