Realty Times June 11, 2004

Anticipation That The Fed Will Move Aggressively Stabilizes Long-Term Mortgage Rates

McLEAN, VA -- In Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.30 percent, with an average 0.7 point, for the week ending June 11, 2004, up slightly from last week when it averaged 6.28 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.21 percent.

The average for the 15-year FRM this week is 5.67 percent, with an average 0.7 point, up a little from last week when it averaged 5.63 percent. A year ago, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.60 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 4.14 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, up considerably from last week when it averaged 3.98 percent. At this time last year, the one-year ARM averaged 3.54 percent.

"The 1-year ARM responds more directly to movements by the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) and market chatter has it that the Fed will not only raise rates at the end of this month, but may do so consecutively throughout the rest of the year," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. "News like that is good news for keeping long-term fixed-rate mortgage rates low since those are more sensitive to inflationary expectations.

"All eyes will be on the Fed for the next few months at least. How aggressive or how measured the coming rate hikes are will determine the future direction of both short- and long-term mortgage rates."



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