Wall Street’s economic soothsayers and sages may still be looking for home prices to sag, but out in the real world—metropolitan real estate markets in most parts of the country—the reverse scenario is underway.

The latest quarterly median home resale price survey covering 128 metropolitan statistical areas shows a gain of 9.1 percent from the second quarter of 2003 to the same period in 2004. Forty-nine metro areas saw median prices jump by double digits. Just 11 markets were in negative territory, with mainly small declines in selling prices.

The survey, released last week by the economics department of the National Association of Realtors, found annual quarter-to-quarter gains in some markets hitting unprecedented levels. Las Vegas topped the list with a median resale price of $269,900 during the second quarter of 2004. That is a staggering 52.4 percent higher than the median price of $177,100 during the same quarter of 2003. The 52.4 percent increase is the largest annual gain ever recorded by the survey, which NAR began in 1982.

A serious shortage of inventory appears to have led to Las Vegas’s record-setting price jumps. NAR chief economist David Lereah said the metropolitan area had barely a 1.7 month supply of homes on the market during the second quarter, compared with an average 4.2 month supply for the nation as a whole.

“By contrast,” said Lereah,”a housing supply in the range of six months represents a fairly even balance between home buyers and sellers.”

Other top-gaining large metropolitan markets include San Diego, where the median sales price of homes sold in the second quarter hit $559,700, 37.5 percent higher than during the same quarter of 2003; Los Angeles (30.4 percent); Sarasota, FL (29.9 percent); West Palm/Boca Raton, FL (25.9 percent); Providence RI (23.4 percent); and Washington DC and Baltimore, both also 23.4 percent.

Biggest declines in the survey were in Knoxville, TN (minus 7 percent), and Montgomery, AL and Lake County, IL, both down by 3.3 percent. The Midwest region had the lowest median price gains (7.1 percent), while the Northeast saw prices prices jump by 17.7 percent. California markets continue to have the highest median home prices in the nation, led by Anaheim-Orange County ($655,300), San Francisco ($647,300), and San Diego ($559,700)

At the other end of the price spectrum, South Bend, Ind. had the lowest median in the country--$93,800. Syracuse, NY ranked second at $94,700, followed by Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA at $95,400. The national median home resale price was $183,800 in the second quarter. A year earlier it had been $168,500.

The highest-gaining, “low cost” markets in the country—where median prices were below the national median and the annual gain was in double digits—appeared to be mainly in Florida. Ocala was tops on the “hot and affordable” list with a median price in the second quarter of $112,300, up 27 percent from the median $88,400 the year before. Next came Daytona Beach ($147,900 median price, up 20.4 percent); Pensacola ($132,700 median, up 16 percent); and Tampa-St. Petersburg ($158,200 median, up 14.1 percent.)