| August 16, 2005 |
|
With hundreds of thousands of articles written over the last few years about the "real estate housing bubble," which is still being debated strongly, Wall Street may be attempting to influence journalists into accomplishing what market fundamentals have so far failed to do -- let the air out. The hope is that investors, who have sidelined a see-sawing stock market tarnished by mismanagement, lies, and fraud, will stop buying homes and start buying stocks again. Is Wall Street really trying to undermine housing? One analyst says no. "In the past, it seems that there have been tensions between the real estate industry and Wall Street as they sometimes compete for investment/spending dollars," acknowledges Thomas Prendergast, a managed funds professional. "This tension is often used to place financial news stories and editorials in a context that suggests the author may have a vested interest in steering money away from real estate and back towards Wall Street. This is no longer entirely accurate and may oversimplify the matter." Prendergast explains, "First of all, Wall Streeters are well aware of Greenspan's long-held belief that the wealth effect from house price appreciation exceeds the wealth effect of stock market gains. Therefore, many understand that a slower real estate market could have broader negative economic implications." If housing were to collapse or even decline, the effects would not benefit Wall Street, maintains Prendergast. "Much of US job growth has been related to the housing industry," he points out. "This includes construction, financing and home furnishings. Meanwhile, the underlying collateral on mortgages would be compromised. Business and consumers alike would suffer." It may be the rabble-rousing press that is blowing hot air into bubble talk, not Wall Street. "The truth is that Wall Street is largely positive or neutral on the real estate outlook," argues Prendergast. "For example, many bullish analysts appearing on CNBC also suggest that the housing market will remain healthy. They share the NAR's view that rate of price increases and market turnover will simply slow in an orderly fashion." He continues, "I would also suggest that most of those who are bearish on real estate are also bearish on stocks (or at least taking defensive postions) because they feel that a declining housing market will hurt consumers in general for all the above reasons. Schiller, Roach and Fleckenstien are the most obvious bears that come to mind. None of them have been kind in their assessments of stock valuations." "The effect on the stock market would depend on the magnitude and cause of a decline in housing prices. Establishing a direct link between a potential decline the real estate market and a potential decline in the stock market is difficult because there are so many variables at play." Perdergrast identifies some general areas of risk:
Prendergast advises, "For all of these reasons, I believe that it is in Wall Street's interest that we have a healthy real estate market. But this should not be misconstrued to indicate that housing prices can continue at this pace indefinitely without creating threatening imbalances. A healthy real estate market should eventually show some moderation. If not, the imbalances would likely extend beyond real estate prices and also affect the broad economy including the stock market." |
With an award winning staff of writers providing up to the minute real estate news and advice, thousands of REALTORS® in North America reporting daily market conditions, and a nationally broadcast television news program, Realty Times is the one-stop shop for real estate information. That's why over 10,000 real estate professionals have turned to us for their publicity needs.