You could have knocked me over with a feather when I got a letter in the mail from Donald Trump asking me to contribute the best real estate advice I ever received for his new book that will come out in 2006.

Here's what I wrote:

Like any other investment, real estate comes down to the risk vs. reward. If you want to make money with housing, you have to sift through the current data to spot opportunities, be willing to go against conventional wisdom, and do what others are unwilling to do -- Get There First.

How do you do that? Skate to where you think the puck is going to be, not where it is. Hockey legend Wayne Gretsky didn't know it, but when he revealed his strategy for success, he was giving great advice for real estate.

Let's say you want to build wealth through owning housing but you don't quite know how to go about it. Start with learning the market conditions.

Seventy percent of Americans are homeowners, but last year nearly 36 percent of the homes sold were to investors and second-home owners.

Most of the loans sold last year were high-risk, low-entry adjustable rate mortgages, which means that quite a number of people bought bigger, more expensive homes than they would have if their loans were fixed-rate.

If you think through what that means, one-third of the homes sold last year will be non-owner occupied, with a strong leaning toward absorption in the high-end markets, leaving depressed older homes behind.

Now consider this. While buyers piled into luxury with their low-cost loans, there were record apartment conversions to condos, which depleted valuable workforce rentals. Condos overall appreciated faster than single-family homes last year. Unimproved older homes devalued in some areas, while in others affordable workforce housing was torn down, remodeled, or otherwise regentrified into luxury townhomes, high-rises, McMansions or other high-priced housing.

Meanwhile, interest rates are rising, loans are tightening, the government is cooling housing through federal and legislative means, and the luxury party is coming to a temporary end.

What this means is too much money is chasing luxury homes, while a serious need for workforce housing is being unmet. And that spells opportunity. Is it smarter to buy more luxury housing at this point (with an adjustable rate,) or take advantage of still-low fixed-rates and buy affordable housing for rentals?

You could probably argue the case either way, but ask yourself, where is the puck, or opportunity, going to be?

If you're going to make money at real estate, you have to get there first. Buy where the next boom is going to be. You're taking the risk that you're right, and if you are, the rewards will be higher than if you followed the crowd.

The alternative is to pay someone else a premium to take your risks for you, but that's just as risky. You don't want to buy at the top of the market because it could be years before the market reaches a new top and you can profit. While it seems counter-intuitive, you have to be willing to do what others won't, and that is position yourself out there alone where you think the next big opportunity is going to be.

So, learn everything there is to know about property management and invest in older workforce housing near vital city centers and public transportation. Hold off on the gentrification, but make the properties clean, safe, pleasant and livable to attract good tenants. Sit on the properties until they generate enough profits to buy more. Those semi-luxury properties will become available one day, and many at a discount, so be ready to buy when others are desperate to bail out because they bought more than they could afford.

This is one kind of real estate investing you can really feel good about. Making affordable housing available is a great community service, and it doesn't hurt that you can make money at it, too.