Realty Times May 3, 2006

'Perfect Balance' Spawns 'Year of The Apartment'
by Broderick Perkins

The high cost of buying a home is forcing more and more people to seek rental shelter and that, in turn, is driving up the cost of rent in a fast-growing number of markets.

Consumers considering the rental home alternative to buying are advised to quickly cash in on the dwindling number of rental concessions -- if any are still available in your market -- seek the best level of amenities possible and lock in a long-term rental contract.

Why?

Rents have turned the corner and are rising this year much faster than they did last year.

  • John Burns founder of Irvine, CA-based RealEstateConsulting.com has already dubbed "2006: The Year of the Apartment" because home prices -- up 13 percent in the last year and 58 percent in the past five years nationwide -- have moved beyond the reach of many middle-income households.

    During that time, apartment owners have been unable to raise rents because low mortgage rates fostered home buying, including second home investment purchases; developers were cashing in on low finance costs by building condos instead of apartments; and condo conversions took apartments out of the market, Burns said.

  • Novato, CA-based RealFacts says first quarter data reveals the new demand for rental homes is allowing more and more markets to find that "perfect balance" -- a 94 to 95 percent occupancy rate and demand generating a 5 to 6 percent annual rent increase rate.

    "The 'perfect balance' point has been illusive in recent years in all but a few markets. Now it is well established in the Los Angles and (California) Inland Empire Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), has consolidated in the Las Vegas and Phoenix MSAs during the last year, and has spread to the Seattle, WA; Reno/Sparks, NV; Oxnard/Ventura, CA and California's San Francisco Bay area MSAs in the first quarter of 2006," said Caroline S Latham CEO RealFacts

    Latham says Fresno and Albuquerque, with annual rent increases in the high 3 percent range and occupancies just short of 95 percent aren't far behind.

    RealFacts monitors some 11,300 apartment complexes of 100 units or more, in a swath of 15 states largely concentrated to the west of the Mississippi River, but also Florida and Indiana.

    Rents for the database increased 3.6 percent annually to an average $926, while occupancy increased 1.4 percent annually to 93.6 percent, indicating obvious movement toward that "perfect balance."

    The first quarter was the fifth consecutive quarter the rate of annual rent increases has grown. Every major MSA showed an annual rent increase, except Tucson, AZ and Colorado Springs, CO, according to RealFacts.

  • Meanwhile, National Real Estate Investor's senior associate editor Parke M. Chapman, reports the same ripple effect moving through the homes-for-sale market in the South, were lingering increases in home prices are destined to set off a similar rental market trend.

    "It seems that news of the deflating real estate bubble has not reached and prices of single-family homes continue to rise at rates that out pace the national average," Chapman reported.

    Merrill Lynch analyst Steve Sakwa told Chapman that 19 of the 48 markets Merrill tracks that saw strong home prices in the fourth quarter were in the South including Tampa and Orlando, FL; Houston, TX; Nashville, TN and Raleigh, NC.

    Indeed, recent research reveals an American migratory pattern of home buyers fleeing largely to the South and other areas where home prices are cheaper. Those left behind who can't afford to buy often rent to keep a roof over their heads.



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