Realty Times October 30, 2007

Does Housing "Fatigue" Signal The Bottom?
by Blanche Evans

When celebrities are overhyped by the press, their agents tell them to lay low for a while. Otherwise, the public suffers "Paris Fatigue" and so on. Once Fatigue has set in, you're box-office poison. You can't get work, and your promising career goes down the toilet ... until you get a chance to redeem yourself by taking a risky role, like Katharine Hepburn or Frank Sinatra did in their careers.

The trick is -- you have to show you've changed. You're either over your bad behavior, or you're ready to unveil hidden talents people didn't know you had. If you can do that, your career soars to new heights, and you're the next John Travolta.

Fatigue can also apply to news stories. People get so sick of the same story over and over, they stop paying attention.

That's where I think we are with housing. We're at Housing Fatigue. The news is so bad it's becoming difficult to absorb:

  • Consumer sentiment is down to the lowest reading since May 2006 for late October, says the The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

  • Home ownership rates are down, says the Census Bureau, to the lowest rate in four years (68.1 percent of Americans)

  • The Commerce Department revised July and August new home sales downward, with about 120,000 fewer homes sold than estimated. New home sales are down 23.3 percent from September last year, hovering at over an eight-month supply.

  • The National Association of Realtors reported the highest inventory of homes for September in nearly 20 years -- to over 10 months supply on hand.

  • Two million homes are now unoccupied, and could go higher as more non-conforming loans reset to unaffordably higher limits for some homeowners.

  • Consumers are shunning big ticket durable goods like cars, appliances, and electronics for the second month in a row, says the Commerce Department.

  • Oil has crossed the $90 per barrel price, headed for $100, making heating oil and gasoline more expensive for the consumer than it was in 1980.

Had enough? So has the financial press. And their change of stories may signal a bottom in the market. Why? They're starting to look for the positive.

Just as the absorption of good properties signals a turn from buyer's markets to sellers' markets, so does positive press.

For example, Business 2.0 has joined with Moodey's Economy.com to produce a list of cities that have hit bottom and offer a good opportunity to bounce back:

They name: Dallas, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Atlanta, Montgomery, Memphis, Mobile, Austin, Houston, and St. Louis as markets that have been overlooked, undervalued and up and coming.

This is a step in the right direction.

In Phoenix, San Diego, or Las Vegas, where gloom has clouded the market, it's a great time to be a buyer. Buyers are waiting for prices to fall further, but the ones who are looking for quality properties won’t wait for the bottom. They’ll go for availability.

Another news source, ABC is also turning proactive, with its story, "Finding a mortgage today is harder, but doable."

What? You mean there's hope?

In Phoenix, San Diego, or Las Vegas, where gloom has clouded the market, it's a great time to be a buyer.

And that's the point. In every market, there's opportunity. We already know the news is bad -- what do we do about it?

You’ll know we’ve hit bottom when somebody else buys that home you had your eye on.



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