Realty Times May 2, 2008

Hot Market: Foreclosure Markets Turning Red Hot
by M. Anthony Carr

To determine when a market is turning from buyer to seller advantage, one only needs to look at foreclosures in the area and see what's happening with that inventory. As prices meet the true market, buyers and investors come out of the woodwork, days on market begin to decline, multiple offers appear and the absorption rate drops.

Such is the case for Prince William County, Virginia -- about 20 miles outside of the nation's capital.

In less than eight months, the absorption rate of Prince William County has dropped from a 14-month supply to a 5-month supply – in essence, it has become a market in equilibrium – neither a buyers nor sellers market.

The driving force of this surge stems from pent-up demand of buyers sitting on the sidelines with the prices of homes finally meeting a level they're willing to pay. While values in the county have dropped 32 percent in two years for a single-family home, the current median price of $356,000 was apparently a signal to buyers to get off the sidelines and get in the game.

More than 1,000 buyers have written contracts in the last 30 days, which outpaces April 2007 by 104 percent. Meanwhile, nearly 40 percent of those contracts are classified as either short sale, foreclosure or bank-owned.

The average list price on those contracts, which include all housing types, stands at more than $288,000 – that's a drop of 33 percent from April 2007's average list price of $430,000. While the market may be hurting for sellers – the buyers are definitely winning and eating up inventory.



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