Realty Times May 14, 2008

Realty Viewpoint: Despite Steep Price Slide, One-third Of Metros Up
by Blanche Evans

National single family home prices declined nearly eight percent in the first quarter 2008, says the National Association of Realtors. That's the greatest quarterly slide in decades, but the good news is that 48 out of 149 metros posted higher home price than a year ago.

You can look at the glass half full and say 100 metros went south, but even then, the numbers don't tell the whole story. A disproportionate number of metros beleaguered by foreclosures and lack of jumbo loan bottlenecks on the West coast and other high-cost markets are impacting sales and prices. In the West, the median existing single-family home price was $296,300 in the first quarter, over 12 percent below a year ago.

"This is the area hardest hit by the slowdown in jumbo mortgage loan origination, which is just now starting to improve," says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the NAR.

Areas that appealed to speculators or to subprime borrowers without the income to afford median housing fared the worst.

California's foreclosure crisis has gotten worse with every month. In the first quarter, according to DataQuick, more than 500 foreclosures a day were reported in California. By April, more than 1,000 foreclosed homes were auctioned off every weekday on the courthouse steps in municipalities across the state, says ForeclosureRadar, an auction-tracking firm.

That explains why home sales were down 49 percent in Los Angeles in March and prices were down 27 percent year-over-year in Riverside. San Diego sales dropped by over one-third and prices sank over 19 percent.

The high-cost markets are wreaking havoc with national median prices, which are typical market prices, says the NAR. Today, median home prices are $196,000, down from $212,000 a year ago quarter.

The subprime mortgage problem is another reason home prices are down. While only 10 percent of all homeowners have subprime mortgages, those papers account for more than half of all foreclosures.

Which goes to show that the rules of investment haven't changed. Prices go up and they can come down. If buyers are in it for the long term, they'll continue to do well.

According to the NAR, homeowners who have owned their homes since first quarter 2002, have accumulated a 23 percent gain in equity or $37,700 on the median priced home.



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