| February 19, 2009 |
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The past year will be remembered as one of the most eventful years in economic history our country has seen in many decades. Scandals and financial crises dominated the headlines. Not a month passed without news about something "crashing", corporate or government "back-room deals", and emergency bailouts to fix problems that many consumers had been unaware of. Did this affect real estate? You bet it did. Did it create challenges for real estate agents? Yes. Did it confuse buyers and sellers? Absolutely! Let's take a closer look at what happened in 2008: JANUARY – Stock market volatility January was a very volatile month in terms of the world's stock markets. Non-U.S. market prices saw a sharp decrease on Monday, January 21, 2008 and, for some markets, this continued on January 22nd. January 21st came to be called "Black Monday," and the activities of that day were referred to a "global shares crash". Our American stock markets were closed on January 21st in celebration of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. In response to the fall in non-U.S. markets, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a surprise rate cut of 0.75% at 8 a.m. Tuesday the 21st in an effort to prevent large declines in the American stock markets. FEBRUARY – NAR announces 2007 numbers The National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced that in 2007, existing homes sales experienced their largest drop in 25 years. "It's the first price decline in many, many years and possibly going back to the Great Depression," said the group's chief economist, Lawrence Yun. This news further fueled the growing concern felt by home buyers and sellers. MARCH – Real estate fraud In a move that stunned many in the industry, 406 people across the United States were arrested for mortgage fraud as part of a comprehensive sting carried out by the FBI. Those arrested included buyers, sellers and mortgage lenders.
APRIL – Foreclosures / builders in trouble / inventory up / buyers disappear The troubles continued in April, with media coverage of high foreclosure rates. Builders began reporting difficulties in selling their existing new home inventory. Standing housing inventory (both for new and pre-owned homes) increased across the country. As a result of all of these factors, as well as the events that occurred earlier in the year, consumer confidence continues to erode, and fewer buyers make offers on homes. MAY – Department of Justice settles with NAR On May 27th, the Department of Justice and NAR reached a long-awaited settlement regarding NAR's multiple listing policy and how it pertained to the display of listings from the MLS on brokers' virtual office Web sites (or VOWs). The settlement brought a measure of calm back into the real estate markets.
JUNE – Government and corporate scandals Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd proposed a housing bailout to assist troubled subprime mortgage lenders, including Countrywide Mortgage. Dodd admitted that he received special treatment and campaign donations from Countrywide in the form of a $75,000 reduction in mortgage payments". The Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee and the head of Fannie Mae also received mortgages on favorable terms due to their association with Countrywide CEO Angelo R. Mozilo. Former Bear-Stearns fund managers were arrested by the FBI for their allegedly fraudulent role in the subprime mortgage collapse. The managers purportedly misrepresented the fiscal health of their funds to investors publicly -- while privately withdrawing their own money. JULY – Banks in trouble Indymac Bank, a subsidiary of Indymac (the Independent National Mortgage Corporation, is placed into the receivership of the FDIC. Indymac's failure was the fourth largest bank failure in US history. IndyMac Bank was the largest savings and loan association in the Los Angeles area, and the seventh largest mortgage originator in the US. AUGUST- Real Estate Recovery In August, a measure of consumer confidence was beginning to return to the market, as buyers and sellers felt we had weathered the storm. Pending numbers began to increase, as inventory was absorbed. SEPTEMBER – Financial crises The improvements that began in August came to an abrupt halt as a number of dire financial crises struck the economic markets. Among these:
OCTOBER – Government "bail out" In an effort to bring stability and normalcy to the economy, action was taken on several fronts:
Unfortunately, in spite of the approved bailout – or, some think, because of it – the stock market experiences its worst week of performance in 75 years.
NOVEMBER – World economies meet / NAR makes recommendations to Congress A group of twenty of the world's largest economies meets in Washington DC, and releases a summary of the meeting. Although no detailed plans were agreed upon, the group listed immediate and medium term action plans for each of the following five principles:
At long last, the government turns to the National Association of Realtors for their input on the housing / economic crises. NAR's urges Congress to include the following provisions in any future legislation relative to housing:
DECEMBER - Mortgage applications are up / interest rates are down By the second week of December mortgage applications were way up, as a result of the decrease in interest rates. Applications from borrowers using conventional loans were up 37% from the same time a year earlier as well as the percentage for borrowers using FHA financing was up by 39%. Mortgage rates were at their lowest rates in over four years! The 30-year fixed rates were at 5.47% in December, versus 5.40% in March of 2004. And 15-year rate fixed loans were as low as 5.13%. As a point of comparison, in December of 2007, the interest rate was at 6.11%. As we wrap up 2008, there is no doubt that we've been tumbled and tossed around by events and drama. But like I've always said, real estate will survive -- and thrive! Real estate isn't going anywhere. Property ownership is the cornerstone of a free country. People need a place to live -- and always will. Prices go up. Prices come down. But demand, on some level, will always be there. Moving forward into 2009 it is clear that 2009 will need to be a year of restoration and stability. While we will see adjustments in 2009, it's sure to be a much better year than 2008. |
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