When it comes to interpreting this week's economic and housing numbers, take your pick: You can focus on the global stock market jitters -- and grim predictions about a looming recession.

Or you can look to the undeniable brighter side for real estate: Mortgage interest rates in the mid-and low- 5 percent range, refinancings heading off the charts, the Federal Reserve poised to keep cutting interest rates -- as demonstrated by its three-quarter point cut earlier this week -- and home prices back down to 2004 levels in some major markets.

Then there's the massive economic stimulus package being readied in Washington that could put cash in millions of American consumers' pockets in the relatively near future.

If you are a potential buyer or investor, a good case can be made that the current combination of house prices at 4-year lows -- and 30-year mortgage rates at 5.6 percent and 15-year loans at 5.1 percent -- should have you riveted on what's available in your local market.

On the other hand, the economic headlines are sobering. And the housing numbers, such as the 3 percent drop in new single family home starts last month, aren't helping build confidence that we've finally turned the corner.

So what's a heads-up approach to digesting all these economic negatives and positives? Our view at Realty Times is this: Every down market is somebody's good market.

Real estate legends -- people like Sam Zell -- have all made fortunes when property values went negative, even when interest rates were in the double digits.

Ordinary home buyers can do the same right now -- provided they have a targeted and disciplined strategy focused on the type of property they're after, and a solid understanding of their local market dynamics.

You may not feel comfortable plunging in right now and that's totally understandable.

But the reality is: There are deals and steals out there for anyone who is seriously looking. For value shoppers, it doesn't get much better.

Published: January 24, 2008

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Kenneth R. Harney writes an award-winning, nationally-syndicated column on housing and real estate from Washington, D.C. He is also managing director of the National Real Estate Development Center, a professional education company. He is a past member of the Federal Reserve Board's Consumer Advisory Council, a committee that by federal statute reviews all Fed actions on home mortgage, consmer credit and banking industry regulation. He served as a member of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's Working Group on Computerized Loan Origination (CLO) systems, and is a member of the Editorial Board of the Fannie Mae Foundation's journal, Housing Policy Debate. He is the author of two books on mortgage finance and real estate.