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February 12, 2012
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Response To: How The Real Estate Industry Opened The Door For Fee-for-service (Blanche Evans - 05/05/2000)

Foresight or Fiction?
Posted By: Sam Valenti - 05/05/2000 07:20 PM

Blanche, this article is both informative and perceptive. In a general sense, the word foresight is derived from the mix of quality historical information, long experience, and a contemporary understanding of the dynamics of change. Having been in the real estate business for thirty years, and having completed a BA, MA, five designations, and had both formal and informal training in future studies since 1975, one might assume that what I am about to say has considerable merit. I make no such claim ! I realize just how treacherous the waters of prediction can be and do not wish to project such an image. Rather, I will instead attempt simply to state my opinion, one among many.

In my market, the Greater St. Louis Area, discount brokers have been given life by seller markets, and conversely death by buyer markets. In effect they are short-term business models designed to flourish in the summer of real estate and die in the winter of real estate. A myriad of discount models, like so many flowers in the garden, bloom then fade away. The Internet, being the largest machine in the history of mankind, will clearly have a long-term positive effect on the real estate industry. However, I do not believe that discounting, or single agency practice, will in the long run prove to be profitable endeavors, because their economic business models for a wide variety of reasons, will not be sustainable in a long-term market. Technology is adding to the agents cost per transaction, and I expect the costs of technology, particularly software applications, to continue to rise at the pace of consumer demand for novel services; thus, even factoring in the economics of scale, the technology cost per transaction will rise and "add" to the total commission charged.

Finally, the architecture of the Internet is fundamentally one of decentralization. As a result, full service technologically competent agents, in my view will set the real estate agenda for the future. Personal, not centralized web sites will prove to be more productive because of greater individual creativity, greater synergy, and faster application of novel ideas. Local or National databases of homes will merely serve as product warehouses which agents may or may not link to for listing information. One stop shopping will
prove unpopular because the technologically proficient agents, who survive the downsizing market, will be more intelligent, and more dedicated to their client's best interest. Centralized planning will fall into cultural disfavor. Agents will form competitive intelligence teams to productively deal with change. Smart Company ownership will focus on empowering their agents with substantial decision making capability. National and International companies will further decentralize by segmenting their companies into smaller regional units and empowering them with regional autonomy. We will move from a service to an experience economy where soft trumps hard, and relationship marketing becomes increasingly important to profitability. Quality agents who place the clients interest first, as opposed to quantity agents who place their own interest first, will become the hallmark of the new real estate era. Style, substance, and a high EQ will form the foundation of the successful future agent's personal qualities. Company leadership that develops a vision and foresight that aligns itself with the decentralized architecture of the Internet, and values and empowers "quality technologically competent," agents, will thrive in the information age.
Discount companies will play a creative but marginal part of the real estate future just as they have in the past. In sum we will have fewer agents and companies, much higher quality service, and higher commissions.


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