The logic of this article is good, and the primary supposition I agree with, but in the end it relies on a questionable assumption about what the future holds: that the real estate transaction will be fully and successfully automated and transferred to the web. This sounds to me like the "paperless office" promise that we have all been hearing for decades. (Paper usage is actually steadily increasing, year after year.) For me, the bottom-line reality is that the transaction is quite complicated, every home is very different from the next, and I doubt we are going to see a scenario anytime soon where a home is commoditized and the entire transaction takes place over the web, regardless of all the promises that so-called "XML" and all the rest seem to make. (Like the promise that "plug and play" makes for operating systems like Windows. Ha! Just try installing that digital camera?) Therefore a Realtor will always be involved. True, the premise of this article does not question whether or not a Realtor will be involved at all, pointing out instead that the Realtor is no longer in the driver's seat in regards to the transaction, for various reasons. But the article ends up with a tone that seems to question the viability of the very ground upon which Realtors walk, using quotes from others with words like "Armageddon". It seems like everyone can't but help bring up images of the so-called coming demise of Realtors, where they become unimportant little order takers enjoying but a fraction of what they currently make. (Notice that you tend to see this "vision" from large companies who would prefer THEY got a bigger piece of the transaction pie.) What is happening in the automotive world with sales people? More and more you see "set prices" and sales people on salary, with no commissions. Consumers, armed with more information (such as dealer invoice prices, consumer-advocate reports, freely available information on the web), are forcing this. But to my knowledge, even in dealerships where new cars are sold by non-commissioned sales people at "set" prices, used cars are still sold by commissioned sales people. This is because used cars are NOT commodities. Everyone knows that one used car could be very different from the next, even if they are the same model and year. But new cars are a commodity. People perceive a new car more or less the same, no matter what dealer they buy it at. There are two key factors that define a commodity for me. One is inherent difference between each iteration of the product. And the other is the complexity of acquisition. So what do we have with homes? Homes are simply NOT commodities. They are the antithesis of commodities. Each home is decidedly very different from the next. (I hope this point is not disagreed with.) And the transaction is inherently very complicated. (When was the last time you had to do a title search to buy something other that real estate?) Here is the import of this analogy: To whatever degree a consumer product is commoditized, there is a push towards non-commissioned sales people. In real estate, a non-commissioned sales person is equivalent to a Realtor who works based on a set fee schedule (or a salary, such as agents employed by ZipRealty.com). In my opinion the only way a home is to any degree commoditized is by high demand. You can't commoditize a home simply by making the availability of homes for sale ubiquitous, as Realtor.com and their ilk has done. You might be able to get a list of homes for sale in your area off the web, quite complete even, but each home is still decidedly different from the next. These are not commodities. So listings being everywhere on the web will not jeopardize Realtors at all. But, if homes in an area are experiencing high demand, and are being snatched up left and right, as in, for example, Silicon Valley, then the consumer is going to be FORCED to view homes more as a commodity, wherein the key is just getting the home, with less regard for the individual features of the home. I can see that in areas of the country such as this, that there might be some pressure to move towards fees for services, or even salaried agents. But what of the complex transaction? Who holds the consumer's hand throughout? Regardless, these high-demand areas are isolated. (Maybe the reason that everyone on the web tends to talk of the demise of Realtors is that they predominantly live in these high-demand areas like Silicon Valley, and their view of reality is thereby warped.) And even within these high-demand areas, what happens when the economy slows? All I am really saying is that most of the prognostications about the future of real estate in a web-enabled world are looking too far forward and let's not get hysterical just yet. I actually tendered an offer today on some real estate. (I really did.) I know a lot about real estate, a lot about business, and am pretty web-literate. I used a Realtor. I'm paying full commission. I'll start thinking differently when someone starts coming up with hard statistics that the average percent a Realtor takes home on the average real estate transaction across the country is actually falling. I think what you might see in the long run is less Realtors, each making more money, but altogether the Realtor's pie is going to be about the same size. What the web is doing is increasing competition amongst Realtors - even dramatically. But there will always be Realtors, just less of them.

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