Market Conditions for San Juan Capistrano, California Reported by Team Cox, Broker, ABR, CRS, GRI, e-PRO, RECS, WCR Updated July 13, 2009.

Current Market Rating: 2 1 2 3 4 5 Buyer's Seller's

Current Price Trend: 2 1 2 3 4 5 Falling Rising

Search the ENTIRE MLS from my site.

March 20,2009

If you are waiting for housing prices to hit rock bottom before you buy a home to live in or rent out, wait no longer.

Orange County home prices last month ACTUALLY ROSE for the first time since June, according to DataQuick.

The median selling price was $375,000 — up $5,000 from January but still down 27.9% from a year ago.

For calendar month February 2009, Orange County saw
$375,000 median selling price that is 42% below June 2007's peak of $645,000.

Single family homes sell for 41% less than their peak pricing (June '07) while condos sell 46% below their peak in March 2006. Builder prices for new homes are 42% below their February '05 top.

Home prices usually rise in February vs. January. Last time they fell in this period? 1999!

January was the 7th straight month of sales gains vs. the year-ago period. That follows 33 consecutive months where sales failed to beat the previous year's pace

Delores Conway, a real estate economist at the University of Southern California, says home prices have come down 40 % in Los Angeles and Orange County since the mid decade peak.

She notes that those prices, coupled with record low interest rates, mean today's buyers can secure the same monthly payments home buyers enjoyed six years ago.

So please call me and let's go out and find you a home together.

Is THIS the time FOR YOU to find bargains on homes or what?

January 27th--New York Times

Don't let the plunging median sales price fool you -- December's Existing Home Sales data has home sellers smiling.

Just one month after falling below the 5-million unit trend line, sales volume roared back by 300,000 homes in December, surprising housing analysts and making a case that this spring's Buying Season could be a competitive one.

Falling home prices helped fuel home sales. Nationally, the median sales price -- the point at which half of all homes sold for more and half sold for less -- was $175,400, down $32,000 from last year.

However, the most important part of December's Existing Home Sales report isn't making headlines.

At December's sales pace, it would now take 9.3 months to exhaust the existing home supply. Last month it was 11.2 months. This means that buyers are competing to purchase fewer homes which, in turn, puts upward pressure on home prices.

This is Supply and Demand at its most basic definition.

Economists have long said that the keystone of housing's recovery will be rebalancing in home supply. Coupled with the all-time low in housing starts, December's Existing Home Sales data signals future strength.
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· The most-recent survey from Freddie Mac shows interest rates on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.19 percent last week, the lowest level in 37 years. While lower interest rates have resulted in a dramatic jump in homeowners seeking to refinance, now also is a great time to purchase a home. The lower interest rates also are making mortgage payments more affordable, especially on larger homes that previously may have been out of reach.

· In addition to lower monthly mortgage payments, a lower interest rate also allows more home buyers to qualify for larger mortgages with less income. Generally, a buyer applying for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage loan of $400,000, with an interest rate of 5.5 percent, needs an income of $92,000, assuming a 10 percent down payment. If the rate drops to 4.5 percent, the borrower would need an income of $84,000 to qualify for the same mortgage loan.

· Despite the increase in the number of homeowners who sold their homes at a loss, home sellers who owned their properties for a longer period of time were less likely to experience a loss from their home sale, according to the "State of the California Housing Market 2008-2009" report.

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The Orange County Register says that as of July 20, 2008, the typical Orange County house seller cut the price of their home $17 every hour over the past year. Talk about DISCOUNTS! Sheesh!

That 17-buck discount is what a $150,000 drop in DataQuick's median selling price for Orange County residences from June 2007's peak amounts to. Yes, we went from a record high home price of $645,000 a year ago -- basically triple 1997's pricing -- to $495,000 last month. Better Hurry...those low priced homes are going fast. Call me at 949-463-4111 | Debbie@DebbieFerrari.com ----

As of July 8, 2008, SOUTH Orange County sales are up 115% since the end of 2007!!!! This is for the cities of San Clemente, Dana Point, San Juan Capistrano, Laguna Niguel, Laguna Beach, Aliso Viejo, Rancho San Clemente and Laguna Hills. YES, people are buying bargains now!

As of June 26, 2008, current Market hotspots: Orange County short sales and REO sales currently account for nearly 50% of the pending sales and about 37% of the current listings.

As of June 13, 2008, the past two weeks Orange County sales are the greatest numbers in over 2 years. Inventory continues to fall by an average of about 100 per week, compared to increases of about 200 listings
per week at this time last year. Also, the index of how long it would take to sell the existing inventory at the current rate of sales is at its lowest point since August of 2006. Yes, since 2006!!

The Orange County Register says on June 2 the following: "Economists at Global Insight and National City Bank say Orange County housing is now 5.2% undervalued — yes, undervalued. That's the first time this math shows local homes as relative bargains to broad economics since the second quarter of 2003. It's also the largest undervaluation since the final three months of 2002." Great news! Buyers take note!

Smart buyers are sensing bargains and that now is the time to buy. To wit: As of May 17, 2008, the number of weeks required to sell the existing inventory at the current rate of sales is the lowest that it has been since April of 2007, when the market was not yet affected by the sub-prime meltdown.

Trust a 30-year veteran. You'll like visiting my site and finding ALL the MLS homes for sale in Orange County and most of Southern California. Email your San Juan Capistrano realty
questions to me at Debbie@DebbieFerrari.com
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In Orange County, for the first time in 11 years, the median home price dropped in 2007. The median home price was $618,000, which was down 1.9 percent from the median home price of 2006.

54,000 homes sold in Orange County in 2005, . But in 2007, the total was cut in half, at 27,000 homes. In the past 20 years, that is the lowest total.

Long time experts in Orange County estimate that prices in the OC were about 10 percent off the June 2006 peak, which means they matched levels seen in 2005.

In 2008, the prices may well drop to 2004 levels, but only on a median level. Great exceptions are found in beach and near-beach communities.

Sure, there have been some big drops for homes with dreadful floor plans, poor locations, such as by a noisy freeway or park, or in some declining neighborhoods in north Orange County zip codes (which had a 7-8 percent drop in median prices). However, Inland zip codes lost only 5.4 percent and homes in mid-county zip codes dropped only 4.4 percent.

The worst losers? Three areas, North, Inland and Mid-County suffered sales drops of approximately 33 percent.

But happy days for some: Coastal areas in Orange County were hardly impacted by the housing bubble bursting.

In the beach cities, starting in the south through San Clemente, Dana Point, Capistrano Beach, Laguna Niguel, Monarch Beach, Laguna Beach, Corona Del Mar, Newport Beach, Huntington Beach, Sunset Beach, and all the way north to Seal Beach, home prices dropped just 2.9 percent, with sales levels dropping only 18 percent.

In 73 of the County's 83 zip codes, sales fell in 2007. In Santa Ana's Zip Code 92707, sales were off a whopping 62 percent.

The overall gainer in sales volume in 2007? Irvine's 92612 where sales increased 30 percent.

Regarding median home prices, some went UP in 2007. Dana Point saw the median home price RISE by 15.6 percent to over one million dollars in the city's 92624 zip code. Parts of San Juan Capistrano, Huntington Beach and Newport Beach, also enjoyed home price increases.

In Orange County, the cities of Laguna Hills, Ladera Ranch, the eastern side of Santa Ana, eastern Mission Viejo and north Orange had no changes in price in 2007 compared to 2006.

Garden Grove's 92840's zip code showed the leading price drop of 15.3 percent, down to $500,000. Oddly, some normally top neighborhoods in Newport Beach, Huntington Beach, and Irvine had double-digit price decreases, too.

Is the credit crunch terrible in Orange County? Well, it could be a lot worse...Real Data Strategies, a Brea consulting firm, says that 54.6% of homeowners in default emerge from the foreclosure process by bringing their payments current, refinancing, or selling the home and paying off what they owe.

The Pacific West Association of Realtors says that Orange County sales REVENUES for real estate agents dropped by almost 40 percent during the last five months of 2007. And that represents a $3.1 billion drop from the same period in 2006.

This is not so good for real estate agents because only 55 percent of Orange County's active real estate agents took part in one or more sales last year. And half of those had just one or two sales apiece. The other 45 percent had no income in 2007!!

You can expect many agents to drop out of real estate during 2008.

A leading local newspaper reported that historically, housing downturns average 27 months so we may be near the end. And we are told by the housing analysts that we are in the 25th month of the current housing downturn. And so far in 2008, while there has been a significant decline in sales volume, home prices in many areas have continued to show small amounts of appreciation.

The newspaper further believed that with the Fed cutting interest rates, Congress passing bills to aid housing, and more money available for home lending, the financial markets will begin calming down. This down cycle will come to an end, just as they have done since 1970, and an excellent buying opportunity may lie ahead.In the outlying areas of San Juan Capistrano, going East, into the mountains, there are many homes with extensive land for horses or raising or enjoying other animals.

When you are in San Juan Capistrano, be absolutely certain to tour the Mission there. You get soooo much California history (from 1775 when the Mission was founded by Father Junipero Serra) just by walking through and reading the many signs and placards.

You can even hold a wedding or social function inside the Mission, with prior approval. San Juan today has plenty of tourist stores near the mission property, but also some very classy stores, jewelry firms, and nice restaurants like Sarducci's down by the railway station.

Remember, you can search the entire SoCal MLS right from my web site. Call me and tell me what you're looking for. My specialty is helping home buyers find the right home and get settled here. Debbie

ZIP Code: 92672

Approximate Location Boundaries: South Orange County, CA - On the coast, halfway between Los Angeles and San Diego

Location Characteristics: San Clemente and adjacent Dana Point feature beaches, piers, yacht harbors and jetties for water fun. San Juan Capistrano hosts the famous Mission. Aliso Viejo is a new suburban city laced with many rustic and developed parks. Laguna Niguel is an upscale community with fine hotels and many million dollar-plus homes.

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