Market Conditions for Pacific Palisades, California
Reported by Sharon Schammel & John Wild, REALTOR, COLDWELL BANKER - INTERNATIONAL PRESIDENT'S PREMIER & ELITE
Updated December 11, 2011.
Current Market Rating: 3
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Current Price Trend: 2
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** www.PALISADESHOMES.com **
** December 2011: MARKET UPDATE & OPINION for Pacific Palisades - INCLUDING - the Palisades HIGHLANDS ("One of L.A.'s Best Kept Secrets") -- from SHARON Schammel & JOHN Wild -- Coldwell Banker Real Estate, Pacific Palisades / Palisades Highlands. * SHARON & JOHN *
*** IT'S HOLIDAY TIME IN THE PALISADES !!! - "Merry Christmas" and "Happy Hanukkah" to all !!! New Year's Eve and 2012 is just around the corner!
** CURRENT PALISADES TRENDS:
* Our Palisades "Micro-Market" is stabilizing. * A 20% INCREASE in the numbner of sales compared to the same period last year!!
* SALES CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE FOR "WELL-PRICED" PROPERTIES - ESPECIALLY SINGLE FAMILY HOMES. * THERE ARE 36 HOMES "IN ESCROW" !
* MARCH SAW A SLOWDOWN IN OVERALL ACTIVITY - BUT, WITH THE BEGINNING OF APRIL, THE PACE PICKED UP AGAIN - ALTHOUGH NOW (DECEMBER) IT'S A "LITTLE SLOWER" BECAUSE OF ALL THE ECONOMIC "ISSUES" (read "European debt crisis", slow job growth, high oil and gas prices, etc.).
* SALES OF SINGLE FAMILY HOMES HAD A "FLURRY" OF ACTIVITY IN NOVEMBER OF LAST YEAR (2010), THEN EASED AS WE WENT THRU THE HOLIDAY'S AND INTO JANUARY OF THIS YEAR.
* HOWEVER, AS OF MID- JANUARY, OPEN HOUSE ACTIVITY HAD PICKED UP ALONG WITH SHOWINGS, AND THE NUMBER OF HOMES "IN ESCROW" (SALES) HAS INCREASED - A GOOD SIGN.
There is now a sense AGAIN of "uncertainty" which has replaced the "CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM" that seemed to be gaining in the market during the first 2+ quarters.
This can be attributed to the ongoing "Eurpoean Debt Crisis", high gas and oil prices and the continued lack of positive job growth here in the U.S. On the PLUS SIDE, keep in mind various recent POSITIVE earnings reports and projected GDP growth (little as it is) for 2011. The glass is still "HALF FULL" :)
** The market continues to "tilt" toward being a "BUYER'S MARKET" even though the INVENTORY OF SINGLE FAMILY HOMES DECREASED to under 100 in April - and now stands at 92 !! (as of 12/10/11)
NOTE: Single Family Homes are still selling, with buyers looking for deals, motivated sellers - AND -"CORRECT PRICING".
** The CONDOMINIUM MARKET market is still UP AND DOWN - with ONLY 3 closed sales in November, 6 in October, 2 in September, 7 in August, 3 in July, 5 in June, 2 in May, 7 in April, 3 in March, 0 in February, and 2 in January - for the end of 2010; there were 5 in December, 4 in November, 2 in October, and 3 in September.
* NOTE: there are now 8 condos currently "in escrow".
* SINGLE FAMILY HOMES: "For Sale" INVENTORY is DOWN from the last couple of months - DOWN approx. 29% from this past August!
It was basically around 130 to 140 +/-in July, August and September of 2010. There was a dramatic DECREASE the first part of the this year - then the number of "Active" listings went UP AGAIN - (up approx. 30% to right around 130 +/- as of 8/1/11.
There remains a good number of homes IN ESCROW ......... now 36 - compared with 37 in November, 39 in October, 40 in September, 35 in August, 41in July, 39 in June, 42 in May, 48 in April, 45 in March, 43 in February, 32 in January - for 2010; it was 35 in December, 39 November, 40 in October, 35 in September 31 in August, 48 in July, 56 in June and 43 in May) - (as of 12/10/11).
** ALERT ** SINGLE FAMILY HOMES ARE SELLING !!!!! (see below for monthly info & stats)
* CONDOMINIUMS: "On Market" inventory also saw a DECREASE at the start of 2011, but then INCREASED to about 36, and is now down to 28 for sale in the last month or so.
(All property INFORMATION as of: 12/10/11).
Go to: www.PALISADESHOMES.com for all the latest Multiple Listing Service home search information.
************************************************************** *** Please contact us regarding "PROP-ORTUNITIES" in various market areas (310) 573-7737 / 573-7733
"PROP-ORTUNITIES" are great real estate property OPPORTUNITIES! They are either a really GOOD DEAL, an unusually GREAT house, or simply a home that no one knows is available. In other words ..... an OPPORTUNITY PROPERTY ...... CALL US to find out more!!
************************************************************** Pacific Palisades is considered by many to be what is called a local "Micro-Market" - as opposed to national, state and county "macro markets". PACIFIC PALISADES IS A VERY SPECIAL LOCATION AND ONE OF THE LAST "WALKING VILLAGES" IN L.A.
** See Below For Details & CURRENT SALES **
Real estate IS selling! However - Price, Location, & Quality are still king, with PRICE (Price, Price, Price) being the PRIME FACTOR! Buyers are BUYING and there are still multiple offers on well-priced properties! Price is RIGHT and it will SELL !!
*************************************************************** ** 252 Single Family Homes closed escrow (SOLD) in all of 2010 !!!!!!!!!!!!! That's a 55% INCREASE over 2009! (Almost matching the 269 homes sold in 2007).
181 Single Family Homes closed escrow (SOLD) in all of 2009: 4 in Jan., 12 in Feb., 10 in March, 14 in Apri, 14 in May, 14 in June, 33 (!) in July, 19 in August, 14 in September, 15 in October, 12 in November, and 20 (!) in December.
This compares to 179 CLOSED ESCROW in all of 2008.
** (NOTE: The 181 SOLD in 2009 compares to 179 SOLD in 2008, and to 269 sold in 2007. The 2009 number is a 1.12% (!!) INCREASE over 2008, but a DECREASE of 33% from 2007).
* SEE BELOW FOR CURRENT (as of 12/10/11) -- STATS & DETAILS *
(Still, this 252 SOLD (in 2010) represents an average of a little OVER 21 single family homes per month, 5.25 per week ---- or, almost 1 (.75) every day !!!)
** 43 Condominiums (including townhomes) sold in all of 2010 - that was down from 51 in 2009 - a 15.5% DECREASE.
In addition, the 51 Condominiums (including townhomes) SOLD (closed escrow) in all of 2009, compared to 47 in 2008 - an 8.5% INCREASE!
*************************************************************** *** THE NEW NORMAL ***
Although nationwide and statewide sale PRICES have continued to settle, the sale numbers have picked up in California and here in L.A. The local Palisades and Westside (read .... Palisades, Brentwood, Santa Monica) market is still more RESILENT, although it too continues to be VERY PRICE SENSITIVE.
Single Family home inventory peaked in the second to third quarters of 2009 and has now DECREASED significantly. However, "Days-On-Market" is still high. We currently have approximately 92 (+/-) single family homes on the market as opposed to almost 200 at the start of the 2009 summer !! - ABOUT A 64% +/- DROP IN INVENTORY !!
Some types of listings are going to sell at the same price range they did six, or even seven (or more) years ago (2004 - 2005). Yet others are selling for slightly less than 2008-2009 (depending on the property), and still others are generating multiple offers.
*** It truly depends on Location, Quality, Condition and Price -- but above all -- it's PRICE, PRICE, PRICE (+ Location) !
************************************************************** ** PLEASE SEE BELOW FOR CURRENT MARKET INFORMATION SINCE THE START OF 2011 ** **************************************************************
IS THE SKY STILL FALLING ??? The answer is very simply ..... NO !! We think it's very important to keep things in PERSPECTIVE - compared to the last five to six years, today's market can feel, and is, challenging. However, if you take a close look at what is really going on .... we are back to a more "NORMAL" real estate market - especially when it comes to Buyer qualification (i.e. down payment amount, quality appraisals, full Buyer documentation, very good credit, etc.).
The national housing market of the last NINE YEARS has brought into sharp relief the wisdom behind the real estate mantra .... "Location, Location, Location". The PACIFIC PALISADES is truly LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION ! That's one of the main reasons Forbes.com has named Pacific Palisades a "BLUE CHIP" neighborhood !!
The Palisades real estate market continues to be a "POPULAR MICO-MARKET" - and is ACTIVE for SERIOUS SELLERS.
************************************************************** *** CURRENT PALISADES MARKET ***
Comparing 2010 vs. 2009: After a slow start to 2009, there was a large INCREASE in buying in April-June, and then a slowdown. NOW, with 2010 in the books we can REVIEW --- as of the start of June (2010), there was a LEVELING OFF in the number (134+/- in May / June / Sept.) of LISTINGS (after an increase at the start of the second quarter) coupled with an UPSWING in BUYING ACTIVITY in April, May and June - and a FLURRY of activity in October/November.
** 2011: NOW there has been again a DECREASE in INVENTORY, after having seen a "peak" of 135 +/- over the summer - (as of 12/10/11).
There has been a SHIFT in the DYNAMICS of the market place. INVENTORY LEVELS are UP AGAIN
(from Oct.-Nov. & Jan./Feb.) and
SALES are ACTIVE for Single Family Homes that are "PRICED RIGHT"; while sales remain SLOWER for condominiums (also unless "priced right").
One of the KEY numbers to look at is the Months- Supply-of-Inventory (MSI) figure. Right now there is a 4-6 month supply of homes on the WESTSIDE. A year ago the number was 15.2 months. Technically speaking, any number below 4 months is a SELLERS MARKET, and any number above 6 months is a BUYERS MARKET. So technically speaking, we are currently in a NETURAL market in general here on the Westside - although specific "micro-markets" can vary. This is a big shift from where we were in January 2009.
People are buying. LOANS ARE AVAILABLE. Good properties, PRICED CORRECTLY, and in good condition are selling - sometimes even with multiple offers!
INTEREST RATES are AFFORDABLE (although they continue to shift depending on the economic news of the week). Serious seller's want to sell, and there is generally more of a selection of "CORRECTLY-PRICED" properties than last year. So NOW (!) is a good time to be a SERIOUS Buyer - or - SERIOUS Seller!
As we end the FOURTH QUARTER of 2011 ....... with .... 1.) the "TARP" rescue plan completed, 2.) the 2009 VERY LARGE Stimulus Package done, 3.) the ongoing "work-out" of the credit / liquidity issues, COMBINED with the easing of the real estate market, inventory swings, and CONTINUED affordable interest rates -- PLUS -- much more assistance by Congress .... (read ....... continuing un-employment and "mini-stimulus" bills) and -- NOW -- the completed Federal Reserve ACTION (!) (known as QE2) -- a "WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY" can be found.
SELLERS are becoming more MOTIVATED and REALISTIC, interest rates are AFFORDABLE, prices are more feasable/reasonable, and in most cases you will not be bidding against other buyers for the same property.
The FEDERAL RESERVE (during the 1st Qt. of 2009)LOWERED the federal funds rate by 75 basis points to .00-.25 percent -- which in turn saw the "PRIME RATE" for banks lowered by three quarters of a point - to 3.25% (and still holding).
In some of their latest remarks, the Fed hinted they are prepared to do what is necessary to keep the economy moving forward (read continued AFFORDABLE INTEREST RATES & AN EASY MONEY POLICY) ...... but NOW that credit markets continue to "feel" constricted, coupled with the latest NEGATIVE economic news from Europe, the "DEBT CRISIS" issues and VERY HIGH oil prices -- it looks like the Fed will continue to keep interest rates low into the foreseeable the future - GOOD NEWS!
************************************************************* Some believe there is no point in worrying about what prices are going to do in the short run (they feel this is something out of their control) and that REAL ESTATE is still a very, very GOOD LONG TERM INVESTMENT -- and, SERIOUS Sellers are still seeing "decent" numbers (depending upon when they bought).
With prices continuing to settle and stabilize going forward - compared to the buying environment of the past several years, and with still FAVORABLE INTEREST RATES, many QUALIFIED (read - 20% or more downpayment, + excllt. credit score, + full Buyer documentation, + current up-to-date appraisal) Buyer's sense this is an OPPORTUNE time to buy!
** Please contact us directly (310.573.7737 / 573.7725) or visit our website -- www.PALISADESHOMES.com **
************************************************************** Pacific Palisades SINGLE FAMILY Home Sales: ** 11/01/11 - 11/30/11 ** (As of 12/10/11)
# HOMES "Active / On Market": 92 - DOWN 29% since the start of July (as of 12/10/11) and a 48% DECREASE from the approx. 176 at the start of 2009; and 16% less than the 110 at the start of April 2010.
# HOMES "In Escrow": 36 (as of 12/10/11) - 40 in November, 38 in October, 39 in September, 46 in August, 45 in July, 42 in June, 53 in May, 45 in April, 47 in March, 43 in February, 32 in January. 2010 "In Escrow" numbers were; 35 in December, 39 in November, 40 in October, 35 in September, 31 in August; 48 in July, 56 in June, and 43 in May.
Compared to 2009 numbers of: 7 in Jan., 13 in Feb., 15 in March, 14 in April, 31 in May, 42 in June, 34 in July, 37 in August, 30 in Sept., 28 in Oct.,37 in Nov., 42 in Dec.)
The 2010 "IN ESCROW" numbers were: 38 in Jan., 26 in Feb., 35 in March, 36 in April, 43 in May, 56 in June, 48 in July 31 in August, 35 in September, 40 in October, 39 in November and 35 in December.
Number of HOME Listings "SOLD" (2010): 15 in Jan., 26 in Feb., 20 in March, 11 in April, 23 in May, 31 in June, 28 in July, 16 in August, 16 in September, 23 in October, 20 in November and 23 in December (!!) (closed escrow) ---- for a GRAND TOTAL of ........ 252 in 2010 !!!!!
That's an average of almost ONE HOME SOLD in less than 1.5 DAYS!! Compared to 181 in all of 2009; which was UP from 2008 numbers.
HOMES.........Active......Backup.....Pending..........Sold (as of: 12/10/11 - Sold info is for November 2011)
# of Listings.........92...........19...............17...............23
Avg.Days...........106...........87...............80...............55 on Market
# CONDOS "Active / On Market": 28 (As of: 12/10/11) # CONDOS "In Escrow": 8
Number of Listings "Sold" 2010: 1 in Jan., 8 in Feb., 4 in March, 2 in April, 3 in May, 4 in June, 6 in July, 0 in August, 3 in September, 2 in October, 4 in November and 5 in December (closed escrow) --- there were 54 "sold" in all of 2009 (UP from 51 in 2008). The 42 sales in 2010 is DOWN 22% from 2009.
CONDOS........Active.....Backup.....Pending..........Sold (as of 12/10/11 - Sold info is for November 2011)
# of Listings.......28.............5................3...................3
Avg. Days..........90...........99.............126.................79 on Market
** Please contact us directly (310.573.7737 / 573.7733) or visit our website -- www.PALISADESHOMES.com **
** Email: homes90272@aol.com
In POSSIBILITY, OPPORTUNITY & ABUNDANCE,
** Sharon & John ** --- (310) 573-7737 / 573-7733
ZIP Code: 90272 Location Characteristics: Pacific Palisades - "Where the Mountains Meet the Sea" is one of the last "Walking Villages" in Los Ageles.
The Palisades is bordered by the Pacific Ocean and Santa Monica Bay to the south & west, Malibu to the west, the Santa Monica Mountains to the north, the city of Santa Monica to the south and Brentwood to the east.
"The Village", as the locals call it, is reminisent of a small east coast town where neighbors greet neighbors in restaurants, coffee shops, markets and places of worship. Our current honorary mayor is boxing great Sugar Ray Lenard. On Sunday mornings there is an open-air Farmer's Market that is extremely popular and very well attended. There are also numerous community sponsored events including a Polo Tournment, Movies in the Park, a Health Fair, the annual Car Show, the Village Fair, and the ever popular 4th of July Parade!
Today, with a population of 27,000 residents and approximately 530 businesses - including retail shops and professional services - the atmosphere and small town feeling of a village still persists.
Though the community is within the City of Los Angeles, in keeping with the original intent of the founders, Pacific Palisadeds has kept its own name, post office designation, Zip code (90272), and functions as a town through the Community Council. It has a first class and well-read weekly newspaper, a hometown band and symphony, a community theater, service clubs, fine schools (including public "Charter" schools), and places of worship, a YMCA, plus many active clubs and organizations. Civic pride by local residents is readily seen by the amount of volunteerism and community service.
