Market Conditions for Berthoud, Colorado Reported by B.J. Johanningmeier, GRI, MCSP, ePRO, CMP Updated December 3, 2009.

Current Market Rating: 2 1 2 3 4 5 Buyer's Seller's

Current Price Trend: 5 1 2 3 4 5 Falling Rising

Sales statistics for the month of NOVEMBER 2009 are included here.

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"The underlying glut in housing means that it is only a matter of time before house prices begin to fall again. Delinquencies hit another record in the third quarter of 2009. The 6.25 percent 60-day delinquency rate was 58 percent above the level for the third quarter of 2008. Even with a higher percentage of delinquent homeowners now benefiting from mortgage modifications, the foreclosure rate is still running at near record levels. With unemployment virtually certain to remain high well into next year, there is little prospect for any sizable drop in foreclosures.

As a result, foreclosures will be putting homes on the market at an annual rate of close to a 2 million. This is guaranteed to depress prices in a market with total demand of close to 5 million. In short, house prices will almost certainly resume their decline. The only questions are how soon and how fast."

~ Dean Baker, Co-Director
Center for Economic and Policy Research
"Housing Market Monitor" - 18 November 2009

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You have come to the right place for accurate and specific reporting of current real estate market conditions for Berthoud, Colorado, and surrounding area. Here you will find targeted narrative and statistical reporting designed specifically to give you the most recent and best possible information to assist you in your decision-making regarding buying or selling real estate in Northern Colorado.

On Wednesday 4 November 2009, the Federal Open Market Committee announced that it would keep the range for the Fed Funds Rate at 0 to 0.25%. [The decision to set a range for the fed funds rate reflects an admission that the US central bank--which normally targets an exact rate--is no longer able to tightly control the actual rate that prevails in the market because of the massive creation of reserves.] To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $175 billion of agency debt by the end of the first quarter of 2010. The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted.

For the week ended November 27th, the Mortgage Bankers Association said that the Refinance Index increased 1.7% from the pace of the week before and seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 4.1% from last week. Borrowing costs on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, excluding fees, decreased to 4.79 from 4.82 percent, with points decreasing to 1.0 from 1.19 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The average rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.27 from 4.32 percent, with points increasing to 1.33 from 1.05 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The four week moving average is down 2.0 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 1.5 percent for the Refinance Index.

TOP TIP ON HOW TO SELL YOUR PROPERTY: Many people start with an overly-optimistic price, knowing that they will be prepared to negotiate. But such tactics could prove counter-productive in the current market conditions and simply deter potential buyers. Sellers whose property is overpriced for the current market are taking a very considerable risk of loss in value.

We report median prices rather than average prices because they are a more reliable indicator of current trends. The median is simply the middle price; half the buyers paid more and half paid less. Some reporters use average real estate prices, which are usually higher than median prices, because they include some very expensive properties that skew the central tendency upward.

However, now the median price is being skewed downward because of the difficulty that borrowers are having refinancing or qualifying for jumbo mortgages (loans exceeding the limit for what government-chartered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can buy). This has become increasingly difficult as lenders tightened standards and as home prices drop.

For the month of November, 2009, here are the numbers for SINGLE FAMILY HOME and MULTI-FAMILY (Condo and Townhouse) sales:

In Fort Collins, during this period there were 143 single family homes sold (as compared with 87 during the same period last year), up 64% in number of homes sold from the same period last year; new median price $227,883 (down 8.85% from last year, when the median price was $250,000). Sixteen (16) new homes were sold (median price $234,750), as compared with twelve (12) new homes sold (median price $292,230) in November last year, up 33.33% in number of homes sold, but down 19.67% in median price.

Also, in Fort Collins, 36 condos were sold (median price $154,000), as compared with 28 sold in November last year (median price $160,000), up 28.6% in the number of units, but down 3.75% in median price. Four (4) new condos were sold (median price $201,500), as compared with eight (8) new condos (median price $175,000) sold in the same period last year, down 50% in number of units, but up 15.14% in median price.

In Fort Collins, in November, we had 6 sellers for every buyer of homes on the market priced under $250,000; 7.65 sellers for every buyer of homes priced from $250,000 to $350,000; 15.78 sellers for every buyer of homes priced from $350,000 to $450,000; 20 sellers for every buyer of homes priced from $450,000 to $600,000; 101 sellers for every buyer of homes priced from $600,000 to $1,000,000; and 58 sellers but no buyer of homes priced over $1,000,000. No homes sold for more than $700,000, although 111 higher priced ones were available. [Only 12.79% of all available listings were sold. The ones that were priced correctly, i.e., the ones that sold, were on the market for an average of 97 days. Overall, in Fort Collins in November, there were 7.82 sellers for every buyer.]

In Windsor, during this period, 26 single family homes were sold, median price $241,000, as compared with 14 single family homes sold in November of last year, median price $216,885 (up 85.7% in number of homes sold, and up 11.12% in median price). Four (4) new homes were sold, median price $337,900, as compared with three (3) new homes sold in November of last year, median price $449,000 (up 33.33% in number of homes sold, but down 24.7% in median price).

In Windsor, in November, we had 29 sellers for every buyer of homes priced under $200,000; 15.17 sellers for every buyer of homes priced from $200,000 to $350,000; 19.5 sellers for every buyer of homes priced from $350,000 to $450,000; 57 sellers for every buyer of homes priced from $450,000 to $600,000; 18 sellers but no buyer of homes priced from $600,000 to $1,000,000; and seven (7) sellers but no buyer of homes priced over $1,000,000. No homes sold for more than $558,556, although 37 higher-priced ones were available. [Only 4.07% of all available listings were sold. The ones that were priced correctly, i.e., the ones that sold, were on the market for an average of 164 days. Overall, in Windsor in November, there were 24.55 sellers for every buyer.]

In Johnstown, during this period, nine (9) single family homes were sold, median price $205,000 (as compared with 11 sold during the same period last year, median price $219,900); down 18.18% in number of homes sold, and down 6.78% in median price. No new homes were sold in November this year, as compared with three (3) sold in November last year (median price $292,947).

Also, in Johnstown, two (2) condos were sold in November this year (median price $191,605), as compared with two (2) sold in November last year (median price $148,000), up 29.46%.

In Johnstown, in November, we had 18.67 sellers for every buyer of homes priced under $250,000; 5.5 sellers for every buyer of homes priced from $250,000 to $300,000; and 10 sellers but no buyer of homes priced above $300,000. [Only 6.49% of all available listings were sold. The ones that were priced correctly for current market conditions, i.e., the ones that sold, were on the market for an average of 63 days. Overall, in Johnstown in November, there were 15.4 sellers for every buyer.]

In Berthoud, nine (9) single family homes were sold, median price $220,000, as compared with seven (7) single family homes sold in November of last year, median price $179,000 (up 28.57% in number of homes sold and up 22.9% in median price). No new homes were sold, same as in November last year.

In Loveland, 75 single family homes were sold, as compared with 62 sold in November last year; new median price $187,500 (up 20.97% in number of homes sold, but down 1.32% in median price from the same period last year, when the median price was $190,000). Eight (8) new homes were sold (median price $375,000), as compared with six (6) sold in November last year (median price $270,000), up 33.33% in number of new homes sold, and up 38.89% in median price.

Also in Loveland, nine (9) condos were sold (median price $145,000), as compared with nine (9) sold in November last year (median price $150,000), same number sold, but down 3.33% in median price.

In Loveland, in November, we had 8.854 sellers for every buyer of homes priced under $250,000; 11.71 sellers for every buyer of homes priced between $250,000 and $350,000; 13.75 sellers for every buyer of homes priced between $350,000 and $450,000; 27 sellers for every buyer of homes priced between $450,000 and $600,000; 46 sellers for every buyer of homes priced between $600,000 and $1,000,000; and 14 sellers but no buyer of homes priced over $1,000,000. No homes sold for more than $670,000, although 53 higher-priced ones were available. [Only 9.07% of all available listings were sold, and the ones that sold were on the market for an average of 109 days. Overall, in Loveland in November, there were 9.07 sellers for every buyer.]

In Greeley, 94 single family homes were sold, as compared with 95 sold in November last year, down 1.05%; new median price $144,900 (up 38.34% from last year, when the median price was $122,500). Four (4) new homes were sold, median price $235,000 (as compared with six (6) new homes sold last November, median price $139,900); down 33.33% in number of units, but up 67.98% in median price.

In Boulder, 77 single family homes were sold, as compared with 37 sold in November last year, up 108%; new median price $404,500 (down 3.04% from the same period last year when the median price was $510,000).

[Source: Information Real Estate Services, IRES]

WORD TO THE WISE: The number of Americans able to find prospective buyers for their homes has fallen to a record low since August 2007. The housing market is continuing to decline since lending conditions tightened and credit markets seized up.

Sellers who have their property priced too high may find themselves with NO SALE or CHASING THE MARKET DOWNWARD, eventually having to settle for MUCH LESS than they could have gotten by correct pricing from the beginning.

Resellers are having a very tough time competing with new home sales, since homebuilders (in many cases) are liquidating assets in desperation sales. Often, they are selling new homes at any price they can get, in addition to which they are throwing in huge buyer incentives that make such deals impossible to resist.

New home sales have continued to drop, however, because builders cannot slash prices as ruthlessly as banks have on foreclosed homes. Also, there is a huge "shadow inventory" out there, including not only foreclosures, but also frustrated sellers who have temporarily taken their homes off the market, and others who are waiting to enter it.

The vast majority of sellers on the market right now are forced sellers--those who don't have any choice. So, if you don't need to sell, you should not be in the market now. You are almost certainly not going to realize any profit on your sale. Moreover, you definitely need to be priced at or BELOW current fair market value (as determined by a VERY RECENT comparative market analysis or professional appraisal) to generate a sale. Homes priced "right on the money" will sell. Buyers with poor credit have essentially been closed out of the market now, and buyers with sterling credit (and a sizeable down payment) have the luxury of waiting now. The longer they can wait the better deal they are likely to get.

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Deciding to sell or buy a home is a big step. Make sure it's a step in the right direction by choosing the person best qualified to handle your real estate needs: a RE/MAX Sales Associate.

ZIP Codes: 80521, 80522, 80523, 80524, 80525, 80526, 80527, 80528, 80553, 80537, 80538, 80539, 80550, 80551, 80620, 80631, 80632, 80633, 80634, 80638, 80639, 80534, 80513, 80534, 80546, 80549

Location Characteristics: Northern Colorado - Front Range of the Colorado Rocky Mountains


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