The annual sales volume and number of units sold in New Paltz in 2011 are both down 13%, though average and median prices show little change, which to me means that prices are starting to stabilize. However, both sales volume and units sold are about half of what they were at the top of the market. Results for the 4th quarter are slightly worse than those for the year as a whole, partially due, in my opinion, to the impact of those homes that missed the closing date required in order to benefit from the Homebuyer's Tax Credit (had to close no 9/30/10).
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors foresees a recovery in the real estate market:
"After six years of a demoralizing and protracted housing market recession, a light is finally appearing at the end of the tunnel - and it is not a headlight from a freight-train. It is a genuine warm sunny glow. The latest pending home sales index - which reflects contract signings to purchase a home - rose more than 10 percent in October from the previous month and more than 9 percent from one year ago. Because the wide swings in sales related to the homebuyer tax credit are largely over, that year over year increase is a clean jump and not just a rise due to some artificially low comps of the past year. Clearly the data implies something is brewing out there. Yes, there are still cancellation issues related to appraisals, tight underwriting, and other issues. But buyers are evidently recognizing the great opportunity to own real estate and acting accordingly."
He bases this prediction on - reduced home inventory - rising rents - mortgage rates that are too low to pass up - the addition of 2.5MM jobs to the economy
Here are the numbers for single-family houses:
Year ending 12.31.11 compared to the same period a year ago
The absorption rate for New Paltz i.e. the amount of time it would take for the entire inventory of houses to sell, based on the rate of prior sales, is 10.5 months, but less than that of the entire county which is 15.7 months. Absorption rates across the county are substantially lower than previously. I attribute this to fewer houses currently on the market either because the owners have given up, realizing that they won't get the price they thought they would, or because owners have taken their house off the market for the winter to avoid the costs of winter maintenance if the house is empty. There are currently 56 houses on the market, ranging from a 1-bedroom bungalow on 1.7 acres) for $135,000, to a 2,300-square-foot circular dome that rotates to maximize solar energy for $1,200,000.
Of the 59 houses that sold during the previous 12 months, here's a breakdown by price range:
Over $1MM: 0
$800k-$999k: 1
$700k-$799k: 2
$600k-$699k 1
$500k-$599k: 3
$400k-$499k: 6
$300k-$399k: 12
$200k-$299k: 29
$100k-$199k: 5
Below $100k: 1
The highest priced property that sold was a 3300-square-foot contemporary on 13 acres for $770k. The least expensive property that sold was a 3-bedroom, 800-square-foot foreclosue that sold for $73,000.
Ultimately, if you can afford to, this is a great time to buy. Inventory is high, prices are the lowest they've been in years, and interest rates are still low, though expected to rise over the course of the year. The average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages is 3.89%.
If you're a seller, pricing and presentation are key: properties need to be priced 10% below market value to attract buyers and offers. As for presentation, a house needs to stand out in its price range, in other words be "staged". The basics of staging are cleaning, doing obvious repairs, decluttering and depersonalizing.
About Nancy Brenner:
After being a weekender for 10 years, I moved upstate permanently in 2001, and have never looked back. My background as an executive recruiter made real estate a natural progression, using my intuitive and negotiation skills.
My clients, whether buyers or sellers, appreciate the knowledge I bring to the table.
For more information, access to listings, as well as a library of real estate articles covering just about everything, please visit my website www.nancybrenner.com.
These reports reflect the views and opinions of their authors and are not necessarily the views and opinions of Realty Times.
