Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors foresees a recovery in the real estate market:
"After six years of a demoralizing and protracted housing market recession, a light is finally appearing at the end of the tunnel - and it is not a headlight from a freight-train. It is a genuine warm sunny glow. The latest pending home sales index - which reflects contract signings to purchase a home - rose more than 10 percent in October from the previous month and more than 9 percent from one year ago. Because the wide swings in sales related to the homebuyer tax credit are largely over, that year over year increase is a clean jump and not just a rise due to some artificially low comps of the past year. Clearly the data implies something is brewing out there. Yes, there are still cancellation issues related to appraisals, tight underwriting, and other issues. But buyers are evidently recognizing the great opportunity to own real estate and acting accordingly."
He bases this prediction on - reduced home inventory - rising rents - mortgage rates that are too low to pass up - the addition of 2.5MM jobs to the economy
For the county as a whole, the number of units sold and sales volume is down -15% and -11% respectively for the year 2011 compared to 2010. Average and median prices are up 4% and down -5% respectively. But bear in mind the annual figures still reflect the increase in sales driven by the Homebuyer's Tax Credit where the property had to close by September 2010.
About 2/3rds of the towns in the county showed a decline in the number of units sold as well as sales volume compared to the previous year.
Here are the numbers for single-family houses:
Year ending 12.31.11 compared to the same period a year ago
Number of units sold:
Year ending 12.31.11: 994 Year ending 12.31.10 : 846 Percent change: - 15%
The absorption rate for Ulster County i.e. the amount of time it would take for the current inventory of houses to sell, based on the rate of prior sales, is 15.7 months, down from 20.9 months in September 2011. There are currently 1119 houses on the market, (compared to 1564 three months ago) ranging from a 4-BR, 2-bath house in Ellenville in need of a gut rehab for $27k, to a state of the art equestrian facility in Gardiner on 100 acres.
Of the 875 houses that sold during the previous 12 months, here's a breakdown by price range:
Over $1MM: 9
$800k-$999k: 5
$700k-$799k: 13
$600k-$699k 14
$500k-$599k: 18
$400k-$499k: 44
$300k-$399k: 99
$200k-$299k: 223
$100k-$199k: 325
Below $100k: 96
The highest priced property that sold was a 6200-square-foot contemporary house with an indoor pool on 50 acres for $2.1 M. The least expensive property that sold was a 2-bedroom, 855-square-foot handyman special that sold for $15,000.
Ultimately, if you can afford to, this is a great time to buy. Inventory is high, prices are the lowest they've been in years, and interest rates are still low, though expected to rise over the course of the year. The average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages is 3.89%
If you're a seller, pricing and presentation are key: properties need to be priced 10% below market value to attract buyers and offers. As for presentation, a house needs to stand out in its price range, in other words be "staged". The basics of staging are cleaning, doing obvious repairs, decluttering and depersonalizing.
About Nancy Brenner:
After being a weekender for 10 years, I moved upstate permanently in 2001, and have never looked back. My background as an executive recruiter made real estate a natural progression, using my intuitive and negotiation skills.
My clients, whether buyers or sellers, appreciate the knowledge I bring to the table.
For more information, access to listings, as well as a library of real estate articles covering just about everything, please visit my website www.nancybrenner.com.
These reports reflect the views and opinions of their authors and are not necessarily the views and opinions of Realty Times.
