Current Market Rating: 2 1 2 3 4 5 Buyer's Seller's

Current Price Trend: 3 1 2 3 4 5 Falling Rising

OCTOBER 2009 MARKET UPDATE

by Stephen Cantrill of the "DoubleC" Team

It's pretty much a given that if people know you are a Realtor© they're going to ask you: "how's business?" Over the last three years though, I should be out of breath for every time I answered the question. Property-owners really want to know an answer with insight and what they hope to hear is that: "things are getting better."
As I ponder conditions three-quarters of the way through the 3rd year of suppressed sales, my cautious answer is that: "things ARE getting better, but….." Month by month in the Central Arizona Board of Realtors© [Payson area], sales activity is about twice as good as for the same period in 2008. But…they are no more than 70% as good as a "normal" year—and we're not talking about the infamous "bubble years" either. A record number of escrows are falling out. I also temper my conclusions with discussions I have day by day with other professionals in the industry: appraisers and other Realtors©.
We have a record 1,196 listings available in our MLS—more than double the average inventory of the "bubble" years. Year to date sales units are 400. On an annualized basis we would predict 533 sales for the year—which is no better than last year and half what it should be. Another measure of current conditions would lead us to believe that with that level of sales activity, we have a 2 year supply of homes in the inventory.
By the way, the average price of sold homes this year is $238,275 which is a long ways off the average list price of $362,456. This disparity is another troublesome observation that I have mentioned frequently for years before the "bubble" price boost. With never-ending solid consistency in this statistic, it means only one thing: buyers who are making decisions in this market generally do not choose or cannot afford homes at the average list price. They can and will make purchase decisions for a third less than the average list price. Still, as always, we do indeed live in highly desirable, premium area and find that some buyers will pay the price.
If you are a seller there are a couple of other troublesome statistics that reveal a lot about your competition. Of the 1,196 homes on the market 519 are priced at over $300,000 [43% of the inventory], while only 94 of the 400 sales were over $300,000 [23%]. Thus it doesn't matter what your home is or was worth or how much it costs to replace it. The market speaks and it says you are going to have twice the effort or twice the difficulty in this area getting a home sold that is over that price. Appraisers have given a pearl of advice over the last couple of years that still stands: If you don't have to sell your house now, don't. Sit back and enjoy it. Hook up that porch swing.



ZIP Codes: 85541, 85544

Location Characteristics: This is Central Arizona mountain country in Northern Gila County. 1% of the land is privately owned and the principle towns are Payson, Pine, Strawberry and Star Valley

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