Carmel Valley detached home sales were down 4% from October 2008 but increased 38% from October 2007. Sales for October were down 27% from the average Carmel Valley detached home sales for the past 6 months. The October sales level reflects the low pending sale activity in September; however, October pending sale activity showed a marked 46% increase from September indicating that November will come back in line with the sales levels of the past 6 months. While San Diego County detached homes are showing a year to date sales increase of 17%, Carmel Valley YTD sales have decreased by 7%. Since Carmel valley is in the upper price ranges and the sales recovery this year has been in the lower price brackets the sales decline is not unexpected. While Carmel valley detached homes are suffering sales declines the condo market had a year over year sales increase of 14%, of course the price points on condos are much lower than on detached homes. Condo pending sales activity for October is very much in line with the sales indicating that November should maintain the current sales levels.
Both detached and condo inventories in Carmel Valley declined in October versus September. Combined with the increased pending activity both months supply numbers declined as well. In fact Carmel Valley condo months supply is below 1 months supply and detached declined to 3.5 months supply. Both detached and condo homes are in short supply based on the current demand. For the past 3 years detached new listings have decreased while listings that expired, canceled or withdrew increased having the effect of reducing the number of Carmel Valley homes for sale. The trend in E,C,W has seen a reduction as a percent of new listings and ytd is at 38%, down from 50% 3 years ago.
While prices have declined in Carmel Valley, the declines have been modest compared to San Diego County as a whole. The balance between supply and demand has helped Carmel Valley from the large price declines seen elsewhere in the county. Also, distress sales have been a very minor part of the overall Carmel Valley market virtually eliminating the negative distress price pressures. Looking at October sold homes versus the same home prior sale we see that the prices dropped only from 2005 to 2008. This is an improvement from just 3 months ago when we were seeing price declines from 2003 on, indicating some recent move up in prices. Carmel Valley prices during 2009 appear to be reasonably stable with some home sizes showing slight increases lately with the October average price showing an increase over September.
As long as Carmel Valley maintains the current supply/demand relationship the current price trends should continue moving forward. Only the homes over $1 million appear to be out of balance and should face negative price pressure until they come into balance.
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Data from Sandicor is deemed reliable but not guaranteed
About Bob Casagrand 619 507-4878:
As a Real Estate Consultant I serve both Buyers and Sellers with the goal of 'sell for more buy for less'. For Buyers, my Preferred Buyer Program provides you with the tools, information, guidance and council to assist you in making the buying decision that best meets your goals. For Sellers, my Magnetic Home Marketing System will market your home to be sold not just list your home for sale, with the objective of 'selling faster for more money', even in today’s market. Oh yes, for those of you that sell and buy your home from me I have a Total Value Program, which gives you the best of all worlds. For more details on any or all of these programs just e-mail your request to me at bcasagrand@searchinsd.com
In this transition market, if you are looking to buy or sell a home now or even 6 months or more away there are a couple of things you should do. Remember, information is the key to wise decision making. First, you should sign up for the home locator program on this website. The up-dates on new listings will keep you current on what is available on the market. For Buyers this will the opportunity to see the new listings as they happen and for Sellers you will be able to see what is going on with competing homes. Of course, I am only a 'click' away from being of assistance to you on any questions you may have about a specific property or the market in general. Second, you must keep up-to-date with current market trends; unit sales, average price and interest rates. The perfect tool for you to do this with is the premier real estate newsletter, Realty Times. This newsletter has daily up-dates on interest rates, a library of buyer/seller relevant articles and once a month a Market Trend analysis of San Diego and various neighborhoods. The beauty of this newsletter is that if the neighborhood of interest to you is not included I can add it to out list. To get your free subscription to Realty Times just e-mail your request to me at bob.casagrand@gmail.com .By using these two tools you will be current with the market and it's trends, this will enable you to make the best buying and selling decisions of the most valuable asset you will ever have.
These reports reflect the views and opinions of their authors and are not necessarily the views and opinions of Realty Times.
