Market Conditions for Carmel Valley, California Reported by Schahrzad Berkland, REALTOR Updated September 17, 2009.

Current Market Rating: 4 1 2 3 4 5 Buyer's Seller's

Current Price Trend: 3 1 2 3 4 5 Falling Rising

** SEARCH CARMEL VALLEY BANK OWNED HOMES FOR SALE
As a former housing bubble blogger, warning about the housing bubble since 2005, I sure missed what would happen in Carmel Valley. This popular area has not succumbed to the big price declines. The reason - stable incomes, very little mortgage equity withdrawal, no kitchen remodels (even $1 mil homes have tile kitchen counter tops, original 1980's cabinets), and plenty of savings and equity to ride out a downturn. In short, they don't have to sell.

Most of the sellers did make some money, or presumably paid money at closing, because there are few short sales. There are few foreclosures.

Carmel Valley prices will fall when the economy collapses, I have concluded. Some of my clients, who had waited for an economic collapse so they could buy in Carmel Valley, were themselves the victims of the recession and lost their own jobs. Be careful what you wish for.

Carmel Valley is a bellweather for our city. As Carmel Valley goes, so goes our city. By that I mean, if we start to see foreclosures in Carmel Valley, that means the job losses and hardship would have infiltrated to the most secure and highest paying middle class jobs, and then who is secure? So I hope Carmel Valley stays strong, for all our sake.

ZIP Code: 92130

Approximate Location Boundaries: East of Del Mar, north of La Jolla

Location Characteristics: Carmel Valley's house prices did not rise as much during the bubble, and have not fallen as much during the bust. Although I think the prices are still too high, buyers don't seem to think so; the low supply and high demand is keeping a floor on prices.

This area of the city of San Diego is just a couple miles inland. It's desireable due to its newer subdivisions, proximity to job centers along the coast, and its acclaimed schools. The core buyers, engineers in the high tech sectors, have not seen the unemployment hit them. Just about every Qualcomm or Genentech engineer who rents, has a dream to buy in Carmel Valley.

Most of Carmel Valley is tract homes built in the 1980's, where the higher prices are in the land, not in the quality of the homes.

Detached homes start at close to $600,000 and go into the millions of dollars. A 2200 sq ft home starts in the high $600's.

Some newer homes in gated communities have a condominium ownership of the land. These are PUDs, or planned unit developments. They are priced in the $500's for a 1400 sq ft home.

Newer homes in San Diego, including Carmel Valley, come with small lots and the Mello-Roos tax, a property tax paid over 30 years to fund the cost of infrastructure for that development. California's Proposition 13, which limited annual property tax increases, shifted the cost of infrastructure for new homes from the entire base of taxpayers, to the buyer of new homes.

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