We had a somewhat positive surprise when we performed our month-end counts last week - inventory did NOT increase as expected. Despite 26 new listings (some of which were certainly replacements of the 15 expireds and withdrawns), inventory remained below 180 (and it still is at this writing). Contributing to this result (and also a refreshing recovery) were 18 new contracts written during the month, although after 12 being written by the 12th, things slowed down a bit - we've only got 2 so far this month - 28 pendings is indeed a comfortable place to be - the highest we've seen this year.
Sailboat inventory increased 7 while Powerboat declined 5 and new contracts were split down the middle; 4 Sailboat closings' collected almost the same $$$ as September's 5 (a big jump) but 3 Powerboat closings included two in the low $200s but still not low enough to prevent a modest increase in overall selling prices. Keep in mind that these populations are very small, so we cannot really attach any significance to theses averages.
Year over year 2009 Sailboat water sales WILL top 2008' counts (a sufficient number is already pending), but median and mean closing prices are lower again - through October 31 they're down 15% and 21% respectively. Powerboat water SHOULD match last year's counts - closing prices (both mean and median) are down about 7% from 2008 full-year levels. Combined, the median is currently down 6%; the mean is down 15% - of 90% of list works for transactions currently pending, the mean might improve to down 11-12%; the median will not change much.
Not exactly what homesellers want to hear, but remaining attractive to buyers.
November 8, 2009
*****
October '09 Commentary **
After 8 consecutive months of steady declines in the number of active waterfront residential listings in Punta Gorda Isles (nearly 20%), we've hit our seasonal increase one month earlier than in 2008 - active listings are up 11 (to 174) at the end of September. Not surprisingly, the number of transactions closed in September declined (August and September always post the lowest sold counts) - mean and median closing prices were up from August, but in our opinion, the lower volume somewhat offsets the impact of that news. While new contracts matched those that closed, pending transactions declined 3 (to 20, still healthy) - the number of deals that fell through.
Actually, 21 waterfront residences were newly listed in September (1 "new" listing was a withdrawn being relisted during the same month) resulting in declines in both mean and median listing prices overall. Powerboat properties' mean and median barely budged, but the Sailboat median dropped almost $50K and the mean was down more than $30K. We did not investigate further as to whether or not the specific properties' attributes would account for the lowered pricing, but a healthy reversal was evident in the "sailboat premium" (in listing prices - the closing price premium, while erratic, spikes only occasionally) that had been steadily trending higher during the course of the year.
The headlines have definitely turned away from the negative slant of the last two years, and this is definitely (rightly or wrongly) affecting the public's perspective. Buyer prospects appear to be impatient as opposed to their previous indifference, and Sellers are drawing the line on price reductions "because they can". We'll always have lower-priced houses for sale, but barring any major negative economically or otherwise, we see the means and medians improving throughout the upcoming season.
At quarter-end we also look at:
Burnt Store Isles waterfront residential listings number 27 at September 30, the lowest number since we started recording them on December 31, 2007 and there are four transactions currently pending at an average list price of $356,725. 7 transactions closed during the third quarter for a total of 21 year-to-date - closing prices are higher than earlier this year but still significantly lower than the full-year 2008 average for 19 transactions ($367,924 versus $445,232).
PGI Vacant Waterfront Parcels - Another 5 closings during Q3 put us ahead of last year's full-year count; closing prices are down 6% on average.
BSI Vacant Waterfront Parcels - Sale #2 for 2009 closed in mid-September; closing prices are significantly lower by 34% on average (but again, there are only two).
Inventory in PGI today stands at 168 and 10 new contracts have been written thus far in October - we probably won't hit 31 by Halloween, but we're off to one heck of a start.
October 10, 2009
*****
September '09 Commentary **
One last reminder, then this notice will only appear in the "permanent" footnote at the end of our commentaries:
If you are on our list to receive a monthly email notification that this commentary is available, please use the link (soon to be linkS) contained in that message (which you've probably been using since you registered with us) to access the complete versions of our Trends in the Isles reports. For those readers who are readig this commentary on our website, please sign up for these notifications in order to gain access to the complete versions of those reports.
The good news: The inventory of gulf-access waterfront homes in PGI declined again and, for what is usually considered to be the hottest (temperature-wise) time of the year, 41 homes went under contract in June, July and August. The bad news, but with a positive slant: Two of the ten closings in August were at prices below $200,000 (a $164K and a $175K), resulting in the means and medians dropping to their lowest levels this year; the slant is that five transactions have already closed this month (the lowest of which was at $335K) AND there are presently only two active listings offered at less than $200K. We did have a high close of $660K in August, but general speaking, the lower third of the pricing scale is where all the action has been. Maybe, just maybe our prices will start looking a little healthier as we approach year-end.
Another "analysis" of our closing price levels - assume (explained later) that on December 31st, 2008 Powerboat Water single-family residential inventory stood at 70 and Sailboat Water inventory was at 135. We have recorded 46 Powerboat Water closings and 60 Sailboat Closings; Powerboat inventory on August 31st was at 67, Sailboat at 96. Yet another - the net of New Listings YTD and Expireds/Withdrawns YTD - Powerboat is a plus 38 (roughly 75% of sales), Sailboat is a plus 11. It appears that Powerboat owners have been in a relative "rush to sell" this year, and the competition has resulted in their monthly mean closing prices ranging (not necessarily trending) from low 400s (in February) to the mid 200s (in August - both of those sales were Powerboat properties); monthly mean Sailboat closing prices have seen $500K (in March) and their low was $357K (in May). The math won't work out exactly (you'll recall that we were incorrectly reporting lower active counts earlier this year due to some PGI waterfront listings not being categorized as "Gulf Access", so our starting points are guesstimates), but when inventory doesn't decrease, prices are unlikely to increase.
FYI, there are just over 1,800 single-family Powerboat parcels with about 300 vacant; Sailboat parcels are about 3,050 with 900 vacant.
Here are a few different perspectives of our current inventory: The lowest-priced gulf-access waterfront pool home in PGI is listed at $229,900 - it's a 4/2/2 with 1,900 sq ft under air and was built in 1974; there are 9 gulf-access waterfront pool homes currently listed below $300K; 133 (81.6%) of all gulf-access waterfront listings have pools. The lowest-priced gulf-access waterfront home currently listed in PGI built in 1985 or later (generally accepted as the year during which ceiling heights began to increase) is listed at $220,000 - it's a 3/2/2 with 1,740 sq ft under air; 93 (57.0%) of the currently listed gulf-access waterfront homes were built in 1985 or later. 29 gulf-access waterfront homes have 3+ car garages, 120+ have 2-car garages and 3 have 1-car garages. Of the remainder, one has a 1-car carport, and there are a few with no covered parking facilities, but one has garage parking for 5 cars - who says PGI doesn't have something for everyone?
We knew we had a good reason for this month's delay in getting our commentary written - CNN, just today, named Port Charlotte Number 1 of 25 Best Places to Retire. Calling it a "laid-back Gulf Coast town, just across Charlotte Harbor from pricier Punta Gorda", the article goes on to extol the great prices (of real estate, we presume) and great amenities of the area, one of which has to be its proximity to Punta Gorda, eh? One of the more interesting statistics they provide is that "about 40% of the houses in Port Charlotte sit on canals and waterways leading to the harbor". Seems a bit high to us, but if that motivates someone to pick up the phone and ultimately end up living here, that's good for everyone.
Buyers ARE here, they ARE LOOKING, and they ARE MAKING OFFERS!
September 9, 2009
*****
August '09 Commentary **
We're going to be getting these out earlier each month in the future - yeah, we know you've heard one that before, but - part of reorganizing our website (which we said we were going to do earlier this year), included reducing the amount of information we freely make available to ALL visitors. If you are reading this after clicking on the link in your monthly email notification, you are much more important to us than a visitor; you are one of our subscribers and as such, you will have the same access you have always had, albeit now through a private link. And in order to get that link to you on a timely basis (without sending a separate notification), we will now be penning (?) our commentary, at a minimum, during the first week of the month. We were in practice mode last month (the 9th) and we barely made it this month - let's see, isn't there a holiday in early September?
Anyway, the Trends in the Isles link in your email notification (which you've probably been using since you registered with us) will still take you to the complete report, and we'll be adding some new features going forward. We've got some other ideas (a number from your suggestions) that we'll be incorporating, but we're always looking for more. One of them is to prepare a trend chart for the two separate "inventories" - Powerboat and Sailboat - we'll link that to the private Trends page as soon as it's available.
If you're not receiving our monthly email notifications, you will see that some content has been removed from the tables that are available on our website. To gain access to the complete reports (and some other additions that we have planned), simply register for our newsletter notification email on either of our home pages (.com or .info) and we'll add you to our list.
In last month's note we pointed out that although 2009 YTD has not matched 2008's pace in transaction volume and closing prices are lower year-to-year, the trend in 2009 appears to be turning upward. Apparently the wire services picked up on our message, because for about a month now the headlines have been nothing if not ebullient about real estate's prospects. Next thing you know, Realtors® will be collecting retainers before allowing anyone in their car.
July is not seasonally expected to be a month of high activity and, while this one was no exception, we did tread water fairly well. 14 new contracts matched June's performance and inventory dropped again (to 167), bringing us back to under a year's supply. Mean and median closing prices lost a bit of ground as five of the ten Sailboat Water closings averaged $322,800 (the other 5 averaged better than $450K) - two in the 200s is always hard to believe. And no, that $189K hasn't closed yet - in fact, now there's also a $169K pending…
Mid-August will see a lot of visitors coming to Punta Gorda for the Five Year Xtreme Makeover Celebration set for the 15th and to be held at Laishley Park & Marina. The festivities begin at 1:00 p.m. and will continue (way past Punta Gorda Midnight) 'til 10:00 p.m.; the highlight of the evening will be a giant fireworks display at 9:00 p.m. We've heard that there will be five bands (plus some ceremonies that will include both local high school bands), that 45 (a LARGE number) vendors have signed up and that many special invitations have been accepted by people from, literally, around the world. According to Mayor Larry Friedman, "we Punta Gordans do know how to throw a party."
Otherwise, it will probably be just another quiet month in River City.
August 7, 2009
*****
July '09 Commentary **
At mid-year, 2009's PGI waterfront single-family residential closings stand at 80, 10% below 2008's June YTD count; the median closing price for the last 6 months is at $351,500, down 5.4% from the full year 2008 level; the mean is down 13.4% to $375,985.
Sounds pretty grim, eh?
How about this version -
Since January of this year, when 4 transactions closed wrapping up the contracts written during the fourth quarter of 2008 (the elections, the beginnings of both the "Bailout Era" and the "Credit Crisis"), PGI's waterfront single-family residential market has seen five months of impressive transaction activity (76 contracts written); the median closing price has risen $23,000 or 6.6% to nearly $400K and the mean is up $9,942 or 2.6% to nearly $425,000, despite May's precipitous drops to the low $300s on both median and mean.
Same numbers, different level of analysis, perspective, call it whatever you wish...not where you've been, but where you appear to be going.
Based on the month-end composition of pending transactions (there's still a $189K waiting to close, but in the company of 3 fives, a six and a $795K), closing prices probably will not "spike", but 27 "in the box" is not a bad situation to be in.
Transaction activity did decline in June (to 14 from 20), but the $409,450 median list price is the highest level we've seen this year.
Active listings declined again to 171, yet another low (since late 2005), dropping another dozen or so for the third consecutive month, again somewhat expected from a seasonal perspective, but when accompanied by this year's new contracts to date, we see a confirmation of continuing improvement. Based on YTD closings, PGI has about a 13 month supply of active listings - based on June closings, it's 9 ˝.
Taking our quarter-end peek at Burnt Store Isles, we note that active listings declined from 50 on March 31st to 34 on June 30th, a very significant drop. In contrast, median and mean list prices both increased by about $60K, most likely a result of the 10 closings (3 below $250K and 5 in the $300s) - just as in PGI, the lower-priced homes are at center stage. Based on YTD closings, BSI has about a 15 month inventory.
And wrapping up the statistical side, vacant land in PGI repeated first-quarter performance with 5 closings, 4 in the $100s and 1 at $215K - nothing too exciting there with 149 still on the market; no vacant parcels sold in BSI - 46 are currently listed for sale. Year-to-date in both areas, 12 have closed at an average selling price of $191,583 - the median selling price was at $166,500.
The question still at the forefront of every potential purchasers' mindset is still "Are we there yet?", meaning, of course, "at the bottom".
Who knows? BUT…
Restating (a bit more succinctly) our current position - this "window of opportunity", 9 months old right now, will be soon be closing, capping a seemingly endless three-and-a-half-year decline in our market values.
And one from back when things were going crazy: "If you like it and you can afford it, buy it! It might not be there tomorrow".
And finally, there will always be people wanting to own waterfront real estate. We have some for sale and no one is making any more.
July 9, 2009
*****
June '09 Commentary **
May's transaction activity (20 contracts written) reinforced our belief that Buyers are indeed present AND active, but list prices of those 20 properties as well as the selling prices of the 16 closed transactions were not (statistically) pretty from Sellers' perspectives. The highest closing price paid in May was for a home that was on the market for 12 days (in March) before the successful offer (at 98% of list) was accepted; the lowest was for a house that's primary value was that the impact fees have already been paid - mean and median closing prices both fell to the low, low 300s.
On the other hand, the number of active listings nosedived to the lowest levels we've seen since late 2005, dropping another dozen or so for the second consecutive month, again, two-three months earlier than in 2008.
A word of explanation is in order since our published numbers don't reflect a drop this month -
We were reviewing closed transactions and came across one that had not previously appeared as active (or pending). Our investigation revealed that our search criteria, "Gulf Access", was not present - this one was coded "Canal - Salt". We adjusted our search criteria and found another 15 listings that were also missing our "Gulf Access" criteria. We're not sure why this characteristic would not be attached to a qualifying listing, but it has resulted in our past reporting of active listings being understated - we believe that transaction counts were only off by one since this was the first closed sale we've encountered with this coding. We have since adjusted all our statistical (and customer-related) searches, but those 15 listings netted against the increase of three (in our report this month) result in a net decrease of 12 for May.
Today's active listings are at 179 - still declining - the median listing price appears to have flattened from its steady decline throughout 2008 and the average listing price (the more volatile of the two) reflected a 4% increase from April (both had hit "new" lows in March). There is still a significant gap between the median listing prices for Sailboat & Powerboat, $499K versus $359K (which is MUCH larger than is reflected in YTD closed transactions, $384K versus $306K) - a couple of generalizations / considerations come to mind: 1) Powerboat is Powerboat (71 actives with 38 contracts YTD equating to a 9-month supply) - travel time maxes at 25-30 minutes, all ages of homes are present and everyone comes out on the river - while 2) Sailboat (112 actives with 46 contracts YTD equating to a 13-month supply) ranges from the "original" section (27 actives with 9 closings YTD) with some VERY old homes and a max of 10 minutes to the river, the Birds (25 actives with 11 closings YTD), newer homes with between 30 and 70 minutes to Ponce, and everything in between (62 actives with 17 closings YTD), also all ages of homes, but not that many of the '60s and early '70s vintages,
Hopefully the above provides a bit more perspective of why our selling $$$ have been trending downward, but -
At almost mid-year, contracts written thus far are 12% behind '08's May YTD, 62 versus 73 - Powerboat contracts are down 15 and Sailboat contracts are up 6 AND this gap just developed during April & May (they were dead-even at 25 each through March 31st).
Our read is that we are in the middle of a turning point - Sailboat appears to have begun regaining its proportionate share (2 out of 3) of contracts written - of course, it's still the lower priced properties that are selling, but take a look at last month's review of properties with "non-positive" attributes, paying particular attention to how many were "left-overs" - buyers have rejected them for at least a year - on the other hand, someone jumped on the highest closing price (43% higher than May's mean) back in March in less than two weeks. Couple this with the fact that even the newspaper headlines are turning positive about the real estate market (and the economy), and we're looking for a bit of a "rush to buy" to take place BEFORE our "season" gets under way.
Of course, a hurricane or two won't do anyone any good…but we're all rebuilt and stronger now, right?
We repeat - this "window of opportunity" will be closing after its impressive four-year development -
June 11, 2009
*****
** PERMANENT FOOTNOTE: Please remember, the numbers that we collect and subsequently present to you and that we interpret to form our opinions are derived from an MLS database. There may be other transactions that have taken place but are not included in our numbers. Our data and opinions are intended to relate only to gulf-access waterfront residential properties in Punta Gorda Isles (monthly) and Burnt Store Isles (quarterly). Statistics pertaining to other areas and property types can be made available upon request.
If you are on our list to receive a monthly email notification that this commentary is available, please use the links contained in that message (which you've probably been using since you registered with us) to access the complete versions of our Trends in the Isles reports and other informational resources. For those readers who are reading this commentary on our website, you will need to register with us in order to gain access to the complete reports.
ZIP Code: 33950 Approximate Location Boundaries: Punta Gorda Isles Gulf Access Waterfront Residences
Location Characteristics: A Waterfront (40+ miles of canals with Gulf access) / Golf Course (St. Andrew's South) community with an active Civic (voluntary) Association - the Isles Yacht Club is also located in Punta Gorda Isles. PGI is wholly contained within the Punta Gorda city limits, a substantial benefit of this being that seawall maintenance is provided by the City via a separate taxing authority. Visit our website and learn more about Punta Gorda on our Relocation Page.
About Ken & Karen Rolland:
Whenever you see "Me" & "My" in either this newsletter or on this website, it's really "us" & "ours".
We live in Section 12 of Punta Gorda Isles, we're the second dock in from the perimeter canal about twenty minutes from Charlotte Harbor via the channel at Ponce de Leon Park. We are boaters, we are boomers, we were "second home" purchasers in 2001, dutifully utilizing the equity in our then-primary residence (on Lake Minnetonka in Minnesota) for the down payment, as all boomers should.
We are pleased with our decision to become full-time Florida residents in 2002 (a "return" for Ken) and would welcome the opportunity to share the rest of our story with you. We are both full-time real estate consultants and offer our own (midwestern) definition of professionalism for your consideration.
These reports reflect the views and opinions of their authors and are not necessarily the views and opinions of Realty Times.
