Market Conditions for Bolton, Massachusetts Reported by Mark Kavanagh, REALTOR licensed in MA & NH, CBR, e-Pro, Notary Public Updated September 15, 2008.

Current Market Rating: 2 1 2 3 4 5 Buyer's Seller's

Current Price Trend: 2 1 2 3 4 5 Falling Rising

September 15 2008
The market continues to feel the pinch of the sub-prime woes, though the government takeover of Fannie and Freddy has positively affected mortgage rates. The market is looking slow in town with 3 properties under agreement. With 62 on the market, that leaves a bulky 20.6 month supply of inventory. For more specifics visit http://www.grotonhome.com or call us at 978-857-5440.

April 25, 2008
The market is continuing to trend in favor of Buyers, with an increase of inventory of 7.69% over the last twelve weeks vs the previous twelve weeks, with no change in the total number of properties selling (an average of one property per week is going under contract).
As in most places, this is the tale of two markets with those that are in the market (priced right and selling quickly) and those that are on the market (overpriced and going nowhere fast). If you have specific questions about statistics, trends or properties, give us a call or visit us on the web.

Jan 14 2008
Bolton is currently experiencing the "Buyer's Market" that the media has been preaching about. There are currently 44 Single Family Homes available in town (320 Days on market average, though in the $500-800k range that number goes down to 146 days; $833,047 average asking price.) The absorption rate is currently zero, since no homes have gone under agreement in the last 30 days, and only one home sold (93 days on market; $770,000 sale price). The list to sale ratio for the single home that did sell was 93%, showing that the sellers conceded nearly 77K from their original price. If you would like to discuss more specifics feel free to contact the Groton Home Team at 978-857-5440 or online at www.grotonhome.com

The following information re: recent home sales is from an e-mail sent out by David Bremer of Metrocities mortgage that I thought would be of interest.
(feel free to e-mail David at dbremer@metrocitiesmtg.com if you have any questions.) If you are interested in specifics for Bolton send me an e-mail (mark@grotonhome.com) & I will get it out to you or you can visit my website @ www.grotonhome.com.
Mark


This is going to be a long one, but you want to be armed with the FACTS to combat the spin you are getting from the news media.

As you have seen, the media loves to spin. Yesterday we got the monthly report on New Home Sales from the Commerce Department and today we got the monthly report on Existing Homes Sales from the National Association of Realtors. Here are some of the headlines and beginning sentences to the articles you may have seen:

NPR - Jump in New Home Sales Sends Mixed Message
The struggling housing industry seemed to show signs of recovery in April with one its biggest gains in more than a decade, but the increase is largely seen as reflecting a plunge in prices.

Fox News - April New Home Sales Jump By Largest Amount in 14 Years, Prices Dip
WASHINGTON — Sales of new homes surged in April by the biggest amount in 14 years, but the median price of a new home dropped by the largest amount on record. The mixed signals left no clear picture of whether the worst of the nation's housing slump is over.

Associated Press - Existing home sales down in April
WASHINGTON - Sales of existing homes fell by a larger-than-expected amount in April while the median price of a home sold during the month fell for a ninth straight month as the troubles in the subprime mortgage market acted as a further drag on housing.

Reuters - Existing home sales fell 2.6 pct in April
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The pace of existing home sales in the United States in April fell to their lowest since June 2003 while inventories swelled, the National Association of Realtors said in a report on Friday that showed more weakness than analysts had expected.

TheStreet.com - Existing-Home Sales, Prices Fall
Existing-home sales in April fell 10.7% from a year ago, as prices dropped and inventories hit the highest level since 1992.

If you don't delve deeper into the data and just read the headlines you might even consider just giving up. Before you do, check out the truth in this edition of SPIN VERSUS FACT:

NEW HOME SALES:
They were up to a surprising level of 981,000. Some of the biggest gains and most of the sales were seen in the South and West. Why were so many more homes sold than analysts were expecting? Two reasons, 1) builders offered incentives and price reductions to move homes and 2) builders built and sold smaller, less expensive homes. This resulted in a national median price for a new home of around $229,100 and an average price of $299,100 (VERY significant drops from previous months). Does that mean that we saw such drastic price reductions in the Northeast? - NO WE DID NOT!

These are extrapolated numbers (they take the actual sales for the month, adjust it for the season, and assume that sales will be like this for the year). One month does not make a trend or even give you factual numbers if you look at it like this (but it makes for great headlines).

Now take a look at the data they didn't show you:
Actual sales and sales prices for the country:
92,000 new homes sold in April - up from 81,000 in March and down from 100,000 last April
Of the 92,000 new homes sold in April, 17,000 were under $150,000 - that's a 90% increase over last month. Guess what? Those sales aren't in our area.
22,000 new homes sold in April were between $150,000 and $200,000 - a 25% increase over last month. Guess what? Again, those sales aren't in our area.
22,000 new homes sold in April were between $200,000 and $299,999 - a 10% drop from last month in the number of homes sold in this price range. You may find SOME of these homes in parts of our area.
14,000 new homes sold in April were between $300,000 and $399,999 - the same number as last month. Certainly these are in our area.
6,000 new homes sold in April were between $400,000 and $499,999 - a 15% drop from last month. Yep, these are in our area.
6,000 new homes sold in April were between $500,000 and $750,000 - the same number as last month. Some are in our area.
4,000 new homes sold in April were over $750,000 - not too many of these were in our area.

Now what does all that mean? I doubt our builders are lowering their prices from $450k to under $300k. While we are seeing incentives and price reductions, they are not at the level being reported in the media. The median price dropped because the South and West sold A LOT more new homes under $300,000 and statisically a WHOLE LOT more under $150k. While it affected the National Median Sales Price - it doesn't mean that new home prices actually dropped that much.

Here are some more FACTS:
New Home "Sales" are actually anything with a deposit taken or sales agreement signed. These are not closed deals.
Of the 92,000 new homes "sales" in April, only 31,000 were complete. 30,000 were under construction and 31,000 weren't even started yet. Guess what? Builders aren't stupid! Do you think those 30,000 under construction and 31,000 that weren't started yet are the same size as the ones they built last year? No they aren't! They are building SMALLER, LESS EXPENSIVE homes.

EXISTING HOMES SALES:
I love the one that says median prices fell for the ninth straight month. It's a lie with just a touch of truth. April 2007 showed a lower median price than April 2006. Each month for the last 9 has shown the same thing. Does that mean that prices have dropped for 9 straight months? NO WAY! Actually median prices for the Country and for the Northeast bottomed out in January. They were up in February, up higher in March and..... you guessed it, UP HIGHER in April. Now they aren't huge increases and we are lower than we were at this time last year but it isn't horrible. Nationally the median sales price is only down 0.8% from this time last year. In the Northeast we are only down 0.6% from this time last year. But again, we are up from January, February and March.
Median sales price again is the price at which 50% of the homes sold below it and 50% sold above it. It isn't even an average price.

Want some GREAT news that you probably won't see anywhere else?
The AVERAGE sales price of an existing home in the Northeast was $308,800 in April. Why is that so GREAT? It is higher than the average sales price for 2004, 2005 AND 2006. Now again, one month does not make a trend, however the average sales price in April was up from March which was up from February which was the same as January. That DOES start to indicate a trend.

How about the number of sales?
The seasonally adjusted number (remember that sort of fake number assuming we stayed selling the same number of homes for the rest of the year) was down a little from expectations and lower than this time last year, that's true. But what about the REAL number?
In the Northeast there were actually 86,000 existing homes sold in April. That number is higher than March which was higher than February which was higher than January. As a matter of fact, more existing homes sold in April than any of the prior 5 months.

Now this doesn't mean we are about to enter a seller's market. It doesn't mean prices will skyrocket again or houses will go flying out of inventory. It does mean that if the house is priced right, people are buying. Don't let your buyers sit on the sidelines waiting for the bottom of the market. We've already seen it. Asking prices may be coming down because sellers are finally getting realistic, but once a home is priced right, the actual SALES price isn't dropping like a stone despite what you may see in the news media.

Thank you for taking the time to read this one. I hope you found it helpful.

Please remember David Bremer and Metrocities Mortgage when looking for your mortgage. With up to date market information and over 7,000 loan programs available I can provide timely, accurate advice and a multitude of financing solutions. If you are already working with another lender, I can offer a second opinion. When dealing with the largest financial transaction of your life, a second opinion is always a good idea.

January 2007:
Happy New Year!!!

Unexpectedly positive news for the housing sector recently arrived in the form of the Mortgage Applications Index, which showed the largest percentage increases in home loan applications for purchasing and refinancing since mid 2005. This indicates that home loan rates are favorable, and most markets are stabilizing in terms of home values. In fact, many experts feel that August of 2006 was the bottom for the housing market. So if you have been thinking about investigating a purchase or refinance, now may be the time - give me a call or email and let me know how I can help.

There are currently 55 active single family homes on the market in Bolton, with an average market time of 288 days and an average asking price of $809,329. During the past 30 Days, 2 homes went under agreement ($504,900 avg asking price and 197 days average market time.) & one home sold (189 days on market; $355,000 sales price; 97% list to sale ratio)

At that rate, Bolton has somewehere between 10 and 18 months of inventory (taking into account seasonal changes), making it an opportune market for discerning Buyers or motivated Sellers.

Most economic indicators point toward a recovering housing market...(So much for the bubble!) and rising interest rates, so if you are one of those waiting for the bottom, don't wait much longer or you may just miss the boat.

If you have any specific questions, please contact me at 978-857-5440 or feel free to visit my website http://grotonhome.com

October 2006:
From an article in Boston.com entitled "Housing prices put at or near low
Study sees slump ending in Boston" by Kimberly Blanton dated October 23:
See the full article at http://www.boston.com/realestate/news/articles/2006/10/23/housing_prices_put_at_or_near_low/

a recent detailed study of 379 US metropolitan markets by a well-regarded Pennsylvania consulting firm, Moody's Economy.com, says that while home prices are falling nationally, the worst may be over for Boston area homeowners. Prices may not rise any time soon, the study said, but they are probably not going to fall much further.
Boston "is very close to the bottom," said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com. "If the price declines aren't over, they're pretty close to over."
Predicting is tricky. The highs and lows of any market, be it stocks or homes, become clear only after the fact. But a number of factors indicate that, despite the fact that the Boston area remains one of the most expensive housing markets in the country, prices may stabilize.
Most important, the state's economy, badly hurt in the recession earlier in the decade, is bouncing back strongly. The state has added 33,000 jobs over the past year and 61,000 since the labor market hit bottom in December 2003. The technology sector has been particularly strong, with payroll employment growing nearly 5 percent in the past year. A growing economy and improving job market translate into more home buyers…the number of homes on the market, a figure that has been on the rise for five straight years, is beginning to decline. The laws of supply and demand dictate that prices are likely to fall when supply is high, and likely to rise as supplies drop. With fewer homes on the market, sellers don't have to compete as fiercely for buyers.
Other economists say Zandi's study makes sense. Nicholas Perna, an economic consultant in Ridgefield, Conn., was skeptical of attempts to precisely predict the course of home-price declines, which could continue into 2007. But Perna said the report's central point was valid.
"What he's saying is that the adjustment in Boston is going to be quite mild compared to other cities," he said, agreeing that "the odds of it spanning a couple of years are low."

September 2006:
With the summer months winding down, we have actually seen a decrease in the number of active listings. Currently there are 74 single family properties
available in town with 232 days of market time on average. The average asking price is $812,832 (down about 3.5k since late June). The increase in average market time coupled with the decrease in average asking price would lead one to believe that the market is still moving towards a Buyer's market, but don't forget that there are actually less homes on the market to compete with one another. During the past 30 days, 7 single family homes went under agreement: Average market time 245 days; average asking price $473,957. Also during the past 30 days, 9 single family properties closed escrow: 183 Days on market; Average Sale Price $621,888; average list to sale ratio 97%.

June 26, 2006
The absorption rates for Lancaster have slowed over the past several months. There are currently 87 properties on the market with 214 average days on market and an average asking price of $816,418. During the past 30 days, 5 properties have gone under agreement (145 days on market average $824,760 average asking price)and an additional 6 sold (213 Days on market average $555,550 average sale price; 97% list to sale ratio). If the current trends continue, we have just over seventeen months of inventory. This will continue to create great opportuinities for buyers and any sellers willing to price their homes competitively.

May 12 2006
Absorption rates for Bolton actually improved over the past month. 8 homes went under agreement (298 days on market average; average list price $521,550) in the past 30 days, and with the current inventory of 86 homes (183 Days on market average; $852,227 average list price), we now have just under 11 months of inventory. During the same time 3 homes closed escrow (130 days on market average; $790,000 average sale price; 95% average list to sale price).

As can be seen from the active vs. the sold and those that went under agreement, there is some discrepancy in home prices. It would appear that the homes that closed last month are more in line with the prices of those homes currently on the market, while the homes that went under agreement tend to be on the lower end of the spectrum.

This may be due to Buyers taking advantage of long market times to get better terms, but more likely is due to larger number of buyers in the lower price ranges (which is supported by the fact that the average seller achieved 95% of asking price).


April 12 2006
The absorption rates for Bolton show that we have approximately 17.4 months of inventory currently on the market. There are 87 homes active currently in the MLS with 191 days on market average and an average listing price of $871,226. 5 Homes went under agreement in the past thirty days ($765,140 average list price and 166 days on market average), while only 3 homes closed ($515,000 average sales price and 194 days on market average)

If you have any specific questions about the market feel free to contact me at 978-815-5864. Happy Spring!

March 2006:
The OFHEO (Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight) released their most recent housing data the other day. Many Newspapers put it out with doomsday headlines like Home Sales Keep Falling, Hit 10-year low, Home Sales Cool Off, etc...

However, if you read the articles and look at the data, it isn't nearly that bad. For the measureable areas in Mass and NH in the fourth quarter, the median home price actually increased. It was a modest increase, but an increase nevertheless. Pricing from December 2004 to December 2005 also increased, anywhere from 6.79% in Essex County to 12.26% in Springfield.

The following is a breakout of the "local" housing data for MA; RI & NH. The numbers represent the percentage increase in the average home price for those markets. As you can see, there are no declines. There may be isolated incidences of people selling below market for whatever reason, and they certainly may not be getting the same high values as when the market peaked early to mid 2005, however year over year (and even in the fourth quarter) prices are still increasing, even if less than in times past.

Percent Change in Average Home Prices as of December 2005. The set of 3 numbers represent the 1-year, 4th qtr.& 5-year changes respectively


Barnstable Town, MA 8.86 1.14 88.01
Boston-Quincy, MA 7.26 1.5 68.38
Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA 7.34 1.01 54.19
Essex County, MA 6.79 0.67 59.1
Manchester-Nashua, NH 9.11 1.78 67.3
Prov, RI -New Bedford-Fall River,-MA 10.63 1.89 94.06
Rockingham &Strafford County, NH 8.97 1.6763.55
Springfield, MA 12.26 2.06 69.91
Worcester, MA 8.68 1.72 69.46

January 2006:
According to the National Association of Realtors®, existing-home sales declined last month (December 2005) but still set an annual record, with Total existing-home sales down 5.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.60 million units in December from a pace of 7.00 million in November. These numbers mean that December '05 Sales were 3.1 percent lower than in December 2004.

2005 saw 7,072,000 existing-home sales, a figure which is up 4.2 percent from (6,784,000)2004. This marks the fifth straight record year. The National Association of Realtors has been tracking this data since 1968.

The NAR's chief economist, David Lereah: "This is part of the market adjustment we've been discussing, with a soft landing in sight for the housing sector," he said. "The level of home sales activity is now at a sustainable level, and is likely to pick up a bit in the months ahead. Overall fundamentals remain solid, driven by population and employment growth as well as favorable affordability conditions in most of the country, so we expect the housing market to remain historically high but lower than last year's record."

Continued low rates in the national mortgage industry, with the rates actually trending down from November (December saw 6.27% average vs. November's 6.3%) will likely lead to some unexpected activity. Though the average mortgage rate is up from 2004 according to Freddie Mac, (the rate was 5.75 percent in December 2004.), Freddie Mac reported last week that the 30-year fixed rate had dropped down to 6.10%.

Nationwide, the median home price for '05 was up 12.7% from the '04 median of $185,200, as it reached $208,700. Thomas M. Stevens, the President of the National Association of Realtors recently stated that home price growth might take a little bit longer to slow than many people have anticipated: "We're coming off of five years of tight supply, and many sellers are accustomed to expecting very strong price gains and exceptional returns on their investment. With the supply of homes improving and buyers having more choices, the rate of price growth should come down to more normal levels this year."

Total existing-home sales in the Northeast region held even at an annual sales rate of 1.09 million units in Dec. '05, about 3.5 percent lower than Dec.' 04. The median price was up 11.4% from a year ago in the Northeast to $245K.

To see the latest information on home sales and prices for the past year as shown by the NAR: Cut and paste this link into your browser: http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/files/REL0512EHS.pdf/$FILE/REL0512EHS.pdf

October 2005:
There are currently 71 single family homes available in Bolton (124 days on market average; average list price of $785,331). Only 6 single family homes went under agreement during the past 30 days with the average market time of 77 days. Obviously, the apporpriate marketing strategies are being utilized for the properties that are going under agreement, as the average market time of those still active versus those pending is 47 days. Marketing is the combination of price and advertising, and while I can't speak to the advertising of the properties in question, the average list price of the 6 properties was $655,483. In other words, the average home currently listed is just under $130,000 more than the average list price of the homes that are now under contract.

Even with the uncertainty in the economy and the effect of the hurricanes on gas and oil prices, the market continued to move at a fairly good clip last month, with 9 homes (130 days on market; $637,777 average sale price) selling during the thirty day period. If the market were to continue at that rate, approximately 20 more homes would change hands over a one year period than did last year.

When studying the absorption rates, signs point to longer marketing times and higher competition for sellers in certain ranges.

Check out my website at http://GrotonHome.Com for more information or feel free to call me at 978-815-5864 for specifics.

August 2005:
80 homes sold in Bolton during the past 12 months ($607k avg; 99 days on market avg; 94% list to sale price; 38% of all homes sold were in the $500-600k range). Last month proved to be a better than average month for closings with 12 single family houses changing hands ($695k avg; 137 days on market average; 87% list to sale price; 33% of all homes closed last month were in the $800-899k range).
Under the past twelve month standards, there are currently 8.5 months of inventory available in Bolton (70 single family homes active). Of those homes, 19 have price tags over 1 million. During the previous twelve month period 6 homes over 1 million changed hands, equating the current inventory to 3 years of higher end properties currently on the market with average market times over 220 days already. This competition under the high end properties is already creating a potential buyer's market in that range, while the smaller inventory of lower to mid priced homes has kept more constant and therefore is maintaining a neutral or mild Seller's market.
Feel free to call me at 978-815-5864 or visit http://GrotonHome.com should you have any questions or desire further information about Bolton or the surrounding area.

July 2005:
Bolton has seen some fairly drastic changes over the past month, but when taken into the context of the past six months nothing has been out of the ordinary.
Sale price ranges have changed from $334,500-$850,000 last month to $300-$1,240,000 this month. Eight homes closed during each month. The median sale price has fluctuated from $475k last month to $590k this month based largely on the number of homes selling from $300-500 last month (4) and $500-700 (4) as well as the sale of a single property for 1.24 million, that raises this month's average.
Sale to list price ratios appear to be considerably lower this month with an average realized sale of 92% of the list price vs 98% last month. This trend shows that there is a slight movement toward a Buyer's market particularly in the $500-600k range. It would appear that several property owners "tested" the market by listing their homes at prices that were considerably inflated and as a result they saw their average market time raise from 54 days last month to 137 days this month (again predicated largely on two homes that were overly ambitious in their pricing-avg market time 337 days).





ZIP Code: 01740

Approximate Location Boundaries: Harvard, Berlin, Hudson, Clinton,Lancaster

Location Characteristics: Incorporated in 1738, Bolton is located west of Boston and northwest of Marlboro. Agriculture is still listed as the primary industry in the town, which is well known for it's apple orchards. Bolton is a residential/agricultural community on the east slope of the Nashua River Valley on an historic east-west corridor. With many hills but few streams for power, it developed as an agricultural community. Rich forests and lime deposits also supported limestone quarries and kilns which once produced potash, lime, and brick products. After the devastation of early Lancaster in the 1675-76 massacre, the land to the east of the river began to be settled by displaced settlers and new English immigrants who built prosperous farms for a population that increased slowly after King Philip's wars. In 1681 the earliest birth was recorded in the Bolton Territory, and in 1738, the town was incorporated. By the 1800's, the economy added orchards and dairy farming. Much of its rural heritage is preserved in its current form as a residential suburb for nearby industrial communities and an exurb of Greater Boston. The community utilizes the Nashoba Regional School District, which is shared with Lancaster and Stow.

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