Housing Inventory Plummets in Bend !! In an encouraging sign that the local real estate market is shaping up for recovery, the number of single-family homes for sale in Bend is roughly 50 percent off its peak. October home sales were at highest levels since August 2006.In August 2007, there were more than 1,600 single-family homes listed for sale in Bend, according to the Bratton Appraisal Group. This month, the number is averaging close to 785, according to Bratton. Redmond is showing a similar pattern.
"That's absolutely good news", said Bill Watkins, a California economist who studies the Central Oregon economy "A decline in housing inventory is a precondition for a recovery". It's particularly beneficial for sellers, as less inventory generally translates into higher asking prices as long as demand stays strong, which it appears to be doing
In October, 175 single-family homes sold in Bend, the most in any month since August 2006, according to the Bratton Report, a monthly sales report released on Tuesday by Bratton. What's behind the decline in inventory? The short answer is more homes are selling. "Record-low interest rates have probably been the biggest motivator and, secondly, the ($8000) first -time home buyers credit has gotten people out of the chairs" and the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage as of Nov. 5 was 4.98 percent, according to Freddie Mac's weekly national mortgage survey.
In October 2009, according to an analysis of the Bratton Report, there were 416 homes listed below $300,000 in Bend and 132 sales, which means it would take a little more than three months to sell all of the inventory at currant sales levels. In other words, the housing inventory was three months. Housing inventory of less than six months traditionally signals a sellers market, and inventory of more than six months is considered a buyers market. In October 2008, there were 602 homes listed below $300,000 in Bend and 68 sales, or a housing market of more than eight months.
Watkins follows the region's economy in his role as executive director for the Central Oregon Economic Forecast Project. which is sponsored by local business and produced by the Center for Economic Research and a Forecasting at California Lutheran University in Thousand Oaks, Calif. He believes banks have generally been slow to list foreclosure properties, and that may account for some of Bend's decline in inventory. More than 3,000 notices of default - a filing that initiates foreclosure proceedings- have been filed in Deschutes County this year. " There's some evidence banks are slowing down their foreclosure process to keep the market more orderly, but that's probably not enough to account for a 50 percent decline in inventory," Watkins said Watkins said strong sales that have helped whittle housing inventory, especially in the lower price ranges, have likely been fueled by first-time buyers taking advantage of the tax credit, Californians who still find the regions housing cheap by comparison and investors looking to turn homes into rentals. More retirees are showing a renewed interest in moving to the region now that the stock market has somewhat recovered. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained more than 57 percent in the past six months. They know things are better and can retire and get a foothold on out market.
The median price for a single-family home in Bend bottomed at $195,000 in April, and ticked up to $220,0000 in October, according to the Bratton Report. The peak median price was $396,000 in May 2007
This winter will be THE time to buy before the incredible deals are gone.
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