As the homebuilding industry struggles with its crystal ball to predict the homebuyer of the future and to produce the appropriate housing for that market, some interesting statistics on household characteristics are providing sources of information as well as inspiration.

While the baby-boomer market is at its heaviest market weight and spending power, homes are reflecting the trend by increasing in size and stature, but that demographic is far from telling the whole story on American households. By U.S.Census definition, a "household" is an individual or a group of people who occupy a housing unit, whereas a "family" is a group of two or more people -- one of whom is the householder -- who are living together and who are related by birth, marriage, or adoption.

But major sociological trends -- such as a 50 percent divorce rate, same-sex marriages, the "graying" of America, singlehood, and other trends -- are affecting our ideas of what constitutes the family/household. One thing is certain: Our society is no longer dominated by the traditional "nuclear family" composed of mother, father, and two children. That shift away from tradition opens the front door to some interesting speculations about the housing of the future.

If housing can accurately reflect occupant demographics, soon we may see a reversal of the trend toward bigger and better housing. During the last 25 years, families have reduced in size by a person and a half. Households occupied by one person represent one-quarter of the market. Single-parent families are increasing yearly, with attendant loss of income and purchasing ability.

Among the more interesting statistical data recently compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau that may affect the "universal" home of the future:

Singles, by choice or otherwise:

• People living alone make up 25 percent of all households;
• One-third of people age 25 to 34 have never been married;
• In 1996, more than 29.2 million households were maintained by women with no husband present, representing an average of three out of 10 households;
• More than 3.2 million families are maintained by men with no wife;
• There are 3.7 million unmarried-couple households;
• Thirty-two percent of people age 65 and older live alone;
• The proportion of the nation's households maintained by a person living alone is expected to increase slowly between 1995 and 2010, from 25 percent to 27 percent.

Marrieds :

• Married couples with their own children under age 18 account for 25 percent of all households, down from 40 percent in 1970;
• The number of married couples with no children under age 18 at home is expected to grow by 7 million between 1995 and 2010, with all of the growth occurring in the 45-and-over age groups, which consist of aging, "empty-nest" baby-boomers.

Children:

• The average number of people per household stands at 2.65, down from 3.14 in 1970;
• Thirty-two percent of all family groups with children were single-parent situations;
• In 1995, nearly three out of 10 (27 percent) children under age 18 lived with only one parent;
• Currently, 52 percent of American families have no children under age 18 living at home. By 2010, however, this proportion could increase to 59 percent, as the number of families with no children under 18 grows from 36 million to 46 million.

General occupants:

• Only one out of every 10 households has five or more people, as opposed to 1970, when one out of every five households had five or more occupants;
• The number of family households is projected to increase by 15 percent between 1995 and 2010, adding more than half the growth of total households. These households, according to current data, increasingly will be occupied by childless couples, single-parent families, and people living alone.

According to these statistics, the consumer for the four- and five-bedroom home is rapidly dwindling, but what building trend will take its place? Two-bedroom condominiums, anyone?

Published: January 14, 1998

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