Hardly a day goes by without blaming something on El Nino. Rain in California. Must be El Nino. Hot air in Washington. What else? El Nino. Storms in Kansas and Iowa? You guessed it. El Nino.

Given the powerful, documented, certain impact of El Nino, life is certainly more risky and therefore property insurance rates should rise - Right?

Er, well, not precisely.

El Nino's curious reality is that the results of this weather pattern have been disappointingly normal.

One way to measure the general impact of a given weather phenomenon is to count the dollars spent for disaster relief by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). If El Nino has played havoc with property values, one would expect substantially higher winter claims than in years when El Nino was resting in the south Pacific.

As it turns out, the winter of '98 was well within the realm of normal, according to figures provided by Val Bunting, FEMA's director of Emergency Information and Media Affairs. In recent January-to-May winter periods, FEMA's "obligations" for disaster expenditures have looked like this:

• 1998:    $427,983,884
  
• 1997:    $1,252,724,830
  
• 1996:    $860,411,856
  
• 1995:    $398,431,499
  
• 1994:    $363,390,654
  
• 1993:    $451,713,486

The view here is that El Nino has received exaggerated attention for reasons not especially related to weather. Since the last El Nino hit in 1982-83, there have been several changes which make current weather patterns seseem more destructive than earlier events.

• Our population has increased from 235 million people to 269 million, thus more people are likely to be endangered by natural events, even if those events are equal in terms of size, power, and location.

• Inflation has increased apparent damage costs. Goods valued at $1 billion today were "worth" just $667 million in 1983, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The result is that storms today appear more damaging than earlier weather events of the same power.

• We have more media, thus we can cover topics in greater depth -- perhaps too much depth. How many cable channels were devoted to weather in 1983? Where were the two-hour local news broadcasts and fancy radar systems back then?

• More media means more need to win ratings wars and, alas, weather disasters make for higher ratings than mundane "good" news. For instance, a warmer winter means less fuel use, reduced oil imports, lower energy bills, and longer growing seasons. But do such events televise as well as a flood? Plainly no.

Major storms and floods cause enormous damage, but it is not clear that El Nino is particularly better or worse than any other weather pattern -- just think of the freezes, floods, and hurricanes we have had in recent years.

What is certain is that a weather system with a name gets more attention than one without a handle. Since we are soon to be visited by La Nina, don't be surprised by media coverage rivaled only by the Super Bowl -- or by cries for higher property insurance rates.

Question Of The Week

Q My lender keeps asking for documents and piles of paperwork. At what point can I just say "no"?

A You can call the lender this moment and say you've given as much information as he or she needs -- and the lender will instantly decline your loan. The lender is right to ask for paperwork. The lender wants to reduce the risk associated with each loan, and part of that effort requires the lender to verify such matters as credit, income and debts.

The solution to the problem is to provide whatever the lender wants, as quickly as possible. In a few weeks you'll be in your new house and the irritation that you now feel will be forgotten.

Weekly Resource

July 4th is upon us, a time to remember that both the Declaration of Independence and the U.S. Constitution are online, living statements of conscience and commitment admired worldwide.

Mr. Miller welcomes your questions, comments, and news releases. All correspondence shall become the property of Mr. Miller upon receipt. He can be reached by e-mail at OurBroker.

Editorial Notice: Content on this page reflects the opinions of Mr. Miller only and not necessarily the views of any publication, organization or website owner.

---

Published: June 30, 1998

Use of this article without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.