Have real estate sales peaked in your area? When the National Association of REALTORS® released its preliminary figures in the first quarter of 1998 that single family homes had reached the highest sales total on record for the second consecutive year at a new high of 4.21 million units, it seemed there was no stopping the momentum. Supporting NAR's findings was a concurrent study by The U.S. Census Bureau which cited that in 1997 the national homeownership rate was the highest in the nation's history - at 65.7%.

For some areas, 1998 was just the beginning. For others, it is the beginning of the end.

But one thing is certain - this question solicited the biggest response yet from the Agent News opinion poll and with very interesting results. Never before have agents' opinions been so evenly divided on an issue. 49% yes, and 51% said no.

Are the results regional? We examined the responses to discover that area and employment factors, predictably, had the most to do with agents' answers.

Of all the areas, San Diego, Dallas, Orange County, Middleburg Heights, Ohio, West Palm Beach, and Atlanta agents most often responded in the positive - the peak is far from happening.

"The San Diego market is on a tremendous up-swing after a seven year downturn in property values as a result of massive lay-offs in local aerospace and related industries. Currently all and then some of the thousands and thousands of lost aerospace jobs have been replaced by high-paying high-tech and bio-tech jobs. Inventory is low and demand is high coupled with low interest rates, so our hot real estate market will continue to improve..." wrote one respondent.

In Dallas/Fort Worth, where home values are up as much as 18% in some areas and inventories at less than two months on hand, respondents were united. "I know there is an end in sight, but I can't see it," wrote one. Another wrote, "It seems to still be going up in Dallas."

Other agents in parts of the South, where new home construction is at a record peak, wrote in acclaims as well. From Carthage, Tennessee (east of Nashville,) home of Vice President Al Gore, Jr., came this message. "...we anticipate that the market peak is still a little ways away. With the increased publicity that Nashville is getting now that the NFL and NHL are coming, we are seeing an influx of people wanting to get out of the rat race and the high cost of living in Davidson County."

In some areas of the country, there was a vast difference in the way real estate is moving. New York is a state that seems to be divided in prosperity, economically depressed in Upstate, and prosperous in Downstate, according to one homeowner, Carol Skawinski. She wrote, "Despite the positive spin put on the housing market by the Ithaca economic development people, Realtors and other business people believe things are pretty grim. What will become of Upstate? Jobs are still scare, many pay poorly, and there are few jobs being created because businesses seem to shun the area." Meanwhile, an agent in Queens, New York wrote, "A house comes on the market and there are numerous offers in a matter of days (as long as the price is right) and also the consumer is much more educated today than ever. But in upstate New York, another Realtor complains, "

In Fayetteville, North Carolina, as well as Wilmington on the Atlantic seashore and a former top ten area for relocation's in the nation, agents believe their areas have peaked. "This market seems flooded with new and existing homes. Sales are tough to get and listings stay on the market a long time. This is not encouraging for a new agent like myself."

From St. Paul/Minneapolis, an agent writes " The market has definitely slowed down for homes $170,000 and up and even less in some areas."

And some are looking ahead to the future of real estate.

"My location is the northwest and north shore suburbs of Chicago. I believe most property has peaked, especially in the condo market. I also believe that as the baby boomers begin to move on in the year 2005-2008, that their down-sizing will cause a decrease in property value and housing will deflate," says Andrea Brim, CRS, GRI, Broker/Owner Brim Realty Concepts.

As long as economic indicators remain as positive as they have been (at least for most of the country), there should be no reason why the homebuyer boom should abate. According to John Tuccillo, economic consultant to NAR, "This is the first period in history when all major economic indicators have been in alignment and one of the few times when they favor both the buyer and the seller."

Published: July 10, 1998

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