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Day One - The Day The Earth Stood Still

When Klaatu (Michael Rennie) emerges from the Space Craft, the world and every human being in it is his, if he wants. The science fiction classic "The Day the Earth Stood Still" has a gentle and concerned space traveler arrive on earth with his laser throwing galactic police robot Gort. Their mission was to convince us to change our destructive, inconsiderate and selfish ways. To neuter our aggressions or be nuked.

Before heading back to his home planet, Klaatu speaks to a world audience, warning them that unless the Earth ceases its headlong race into nuclear war--which has endangered the rest of the universe--Gort and the rest of the robots on Klaatu's planet will destroy the world. "The choice," declares Klaatu, "is yours."

Based on the story "Farewell to the Master" by Harry Bates, this movie is said to have legitimized the SCI fi genre. On Monday of this week, Microsoft finally released their long anticipated real estate web site, HomeAdvisor.

The day opened with a serious shock wave, set off by no less than the Wall Street Journal. They published the baptismal piece on Microsoft's HomeAdvisor, and Reuters Wire service quickly spread the whisper of "GOLDRUSH" to every shout Meister publication known. By mid morning the news was everywhere. A digital age "Sutters Mill" had struck the motherload of Internet commerce vein, worth $1.2 Trillion dollars per year.

The GoldRush is on, and Microsoft's HomeAdvisor is the first interloper to strike a claim.

Did you know that within seven years of the discovery at Sutters Mill, nearly all Native California Americans were captive or dead, and the great Sierra Nevada Grizzly was officially extinct? Seven years of goldrush. Within the first year, the point of no return was past.

Most Realtors seemed to take the interloper news with a calm, look see, attitude. eRealty is one crowded space. Of course they went to the HomeAdvisor site for a tour. Well, actually that might be an understatement. The Microsoft site was getting tagged so hard that the Server could barely move. The world's largest caravan tour, with the world's newest real estate rookie serving snacks, and it's lunch time on Monday, the day the earth stood still.

Needless to say, for much of the day the HomeAdvisor site stood still.

It's also fair to say that the goldrush numbers being thrown around by the media caught everyone's attention. Makes one wonder what they thought real estate was all about anyway? Let's face it, since the dawn of civilization the wealth of the world has always been measured, stored and traded in terms of real property, eventually always dumbing down to the dirt, as in real estate. Everything else is but a momentary value, soon to change with the wind as the sands of time pass. Only in recent times has the idea of "Creative Intelligence" as a source and repository of wealth come to challenge the territorial riches of property value.

Yet on Monday, surprise was everywhere. Bloomberg press even tossed out a motherload claim of a $4 Trillion dollar mortgage business by the year 2005, 30% of which will go to "on line", can you say Microsoft, providers.

Wired Magazine had the temerity to refer to Chairman Bill as the "Mortgage Meister", noticing that his bankers grasp was reaching out to grab a huge piece of the loan origination pie. What they didn't note was that his reach happens without having to either disclose his interests, or, balance his "funding" resources. Risk free participation used to be something reserved for family owned protection rackets. Hello big time. Gotta wonder though why Countrywide, founding member of the Microsoft advisory board, decided not to pay the tribute demanded? Where's Cameron King when you really need an insiders confession?

All media coverage of Day One sighted the obvious challenge Microsoft has yet to overcome. Face it, HomeAdvisor is a near content free site! Where's the beef? Where's the listings? What are real estate consumers shopping for anyway? Advise? C'mon! Only noble Inman believes that. And who could possibly care about the ghostly 400,000 listings anyway if you can't get in to see them?

This thinking is twisted. Even if your Momma don't dance, and your Daddy don't rock and roll, it's really not the time to be dumping Cendant!

Cendant controls near 40% of the nations "Listing Contracts". To get the right to publish those listings, Microsoft has to first fight through the MLS Balkans, which so far has made Serbian guerrilla warfare look like a walk in the park, and then they have to deal directly with Cendant Brokerages. If they had too, Cendant could choke off the HomeAdvisor baby while it's still in the crib. Perhaps Chairman Bill might want to consider a rear guard action and start scooping up some of those listing monger options. Even if the pot is getting steep, Cendant is holding all the cards in this game. They acquired them, remember?

Sometimes you've just got to wonder how many otherwise reasonable people have been watching those late night cable infomercials, you know, the ones with "get rich quick king" Thomas Wu. Oh those women, a mansion and rolls to boot!

In the shadow of the GMAC purchase of Better Homes & Gardens, and the persistent whispers that Prudential is desired for desert, has anyone asked the question if they want to share the mortgage space on what could possibly become near 400,000 "listing contracts"? BH&G books in near 300 K of the nations most commission promising contracts. To think for a moment that GMAC is not wise to the Cendant business blue print is the equivalent of assuming HomeAdvisor does not intend on getting between the nations property transaction consumers and the services they need.

The low key introduction of HomeAdvisor and the subsequent goldrush fever has everyone popping off. The shills, sycophants and apologist are the best. By the end of Day One, one couldn't help but think of the movie "Mars Attack". As Martian lasers toast and roast waves of fleeing screaming humans, a loud speaker from the mothership pleads in soothing, relaxing tones, "Don't run, don't be afraid, we are your friends!" It does seem a little late in the day for that pitch though. Even Realtors are aware that certain techno business 101 fundamentals rule. The most basic fundamental of course is, "Since when did a Microsoftian cut of the action not end up becoming the whole pie?"

The real estate space is crowded, a fact which most media discussions included. But we are reminded of a distant insight from global visionary and technologist, Paul Saffo. His insistent belief is that technical innovation always has certain consequences. The first is that consumers will have more options to choose from and more providers to contend with. The second fact is that the cost of transacting will go down.

Go figure, but don't for a moment doubt that he isn't right. Newtonian physics does not apply here. Otherwise, you might find yourself with the sinking feeling and creeping anxiety that, on this day at least, indeed the Earth does stand still.


Editor's Note: Content on this page reflects the opinions of Mr. Gary Edwards only and not necessarily the views of this or any other publication, organization or Website owner.

Published: July 14, 1998

Use of this article without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.


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Today's Headlines 07/14/1998

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