" Nevada to Lead as Prime Senior Housing Market through 2006"

There is no imminent threat of declining ticket sales for Wayne Newton, but the pigeon population in Las Vegas may start fattening up some over the next eight years.

Nevada will be the nation's most popular seniors housing market for the next eight years, according to findings of a new National Association of Home Builders study, "Seniors in the Market for Housing: State Forecasts Through 2006."

Using population forecasts from the U.S. Census Bureau, NAHB projected which states will have the greatest appeal for graying market in search of housing in years to come.

Nevada came out on top in ratings of "demand intensity" for households headed by people aged 55 and up that are projected to be in the market for housing between 1999 and 2006.

Ratings of demand intensity go beyond telling which states will have the greatest overall number of seniors in search of housing.

Since most seniors who move remain within the same state, and because all states have a significant share of senior households, states with the largest overall populations--California, Florida, Texas and New York--easily have the largest seniors housing markets.

Weighting the figures based on a state's current population, however, yields a reading of "demand intensity," meaning the actual appeal one state has compared to others. Nevada had the highest projected demand intensity for seniors housing for 1999-2006, with an annual average of 1,439 households headed by people aged 55 and older expected to be in the market for housing per 100,000 residents.

This means that Nevada can be expected to have the greatest number of seniors moving from one area of the state to another, and into Nevada from elsewhere, per 100,000 residents.

Florida was second on the demand intensity scale, with 1,351 senior-headed households in the market for housing per 100,000 residents each year.

Arizona was third, with 1,216, while Arkansas was fourth with 1,059. Rounding out the top 10 were Oregon, New Mexico, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho and West Virginia, respectively.

The forecast does not cover seniors moving into nursing homes or other group quarters. Its findings have numerous implications for home builders who are intent on meeting the growing demand for seniors housing nationwide as the next century begins.

Published: December 15, 1998

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