The growth of immigration will have a distinct impact on commercial real estate, mostly in the retail sector, experts say.

Although housing markets will feel the most direct impact from immigration, the effects will ripple through retail, office and industrial markets. In the retail sector, ethnic stores that provide specialized food -- as well as a wide range of services from dry cleaning to dentistry -- have revived dilapidated strip malls and shopping districts.

The growth of retailers serving immigrant markets is creating a "bottom-up" revival in demand for space. Though demand initially will focus on smaller retail properties, as these ethnic retail markets grow, so will the need for larger spaces.

Inner city neighborhoods have traditionally been undeserved by large supermarkets, but retailers are starting to recognize the opportunities in ethnic areas.

One success story is 99 Ranch Markets, which carries a wide selection of Asian foods and produce as well as the staples of an American supermarket. Founded by a Taiwanese immigrant, the company is now expanding from its Southern California base to Asian communities elsewhere in the United States.

More immigrants are trying their hand at being entrepreneurs. In New York City, many immigrants continue to open traditional businesses like restaurants and grocery stores, but others are breaking the mold. In Manhattan’s Chinatown, for example, immigrants are starting construction companies to build or renovate housing for the growing number of new residents.

In the West Indian community flourishing in the Crown Heights and East Flatbush areas of Brooklyn, travel agencies are joining restaurants as the small business of choice. Among Hispanics, McDonald’s and Kentucky Fried Chicken franchises are favorites.

Also favored are car services, beauty salons, restaurants and minimarkets. Immigrant-owned businesses will account for a larger share of the small-business market and help drive demand for space in small office buildings, retail outlets, warehouse and distribution centers and other facilities.

Some immigrants are using their links to their home countries to start new businesses. There appears to be a strong linkage between the ethnic makeup of New York City and its trading patterns. New York has immigrants from more than 200 countries and trades with more than 200 countries. For example, as more immigrants from Latin America and the Caribbean have settled in New York, the city’s exports to those regions have increased. The increase in export-import activity is creating new demand for warehouse and distribution centers and office and industrial space.

In the downtown industrial area of Los Angeles, many immigrant-entrepreneurs run family owned businesses in export-import, apparel manufacturing and food wholesaling and produce. With modern industrial space in rather short supply, developers have started projects to provide more space. The mini-boom in development is revitalizing a depressed and antiquated industrial and warehouse distribution area. Among other projects, a developer completed a modern industrial park that was designed for and sold to the area’s immigrant entrepreneurs. The development activity is helping to attract new investment. A company owned by a Mexican immigrant has invested in a new warehouse distribution facility.

EY Kenneth Leventhal Group's analysts forecast the following as a result of the United State's current immigration policy and trends.

One of the major impact of the new immigration wave in the short run will be to physically rejuvenate local real estate including neighborhood and community shopping centers, industrial parks and central business districts in inner cities and older neighborhoods.

Investors will find opportunities to create "venture capital" resources for immigrant-owned real estate interests similar to those created for the high-tech industry.

If immigrants band together to create new real estate service companies to serve their own markets, existing non-ethnic service companies will need to form strategic alliances or partnerships with these new entities to compete.

A market will evolve for ethnically themed entertainment, recreational and retail facilities as specific ethnic enclaves become large enough to support them.

Published: January 8, 1999

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