Will the web so change real estate that an elite battalion of super agents, say 75,000 or 50,000, will be able to handle most transactions?

If the answer is "yes" we ought to consider the implications.

What level of services will be available to consumers from brokers handling one transaction every two days, or one transaction per day?

Will brokers reduce the range of services they offer to handle a large number of transactions? If yes, how is this different than the menu-of-service firms which are now active in most markets?

If super agents offer fewer services, will their income per transaction rise or fall?

What happens if a local home market slows? Can super agents in a stagnant market survive if they offer fewer services and earn less per transaction? If brokers are doing more work without gaining additional income, what's the point?

A really good broker with a number of licensed assistants may well be able to handle a large business volume. But in such situations what we usually have is more than one person handling the transactions.

Every local market has mega-agents and brokers. I re-call one agent who in a single year handled 230 transactions worth $42 million in residential listings -- with a staff of nine.

How did this one agent generate so much volume?

First, he was very good at what he did.

Second, he was a marketing whiz, sending out some 80,000 letters per month.

Third, he was well-organized.

Could computing and the Internet create other mega-agents?

Surely there will be cases where the Web allows a small number of licensees to reach super-agent status. But a more likely result is that the old 80/20 split will evolve.

For years in real estate the oft-quoted "rule" has been that 20 percent of all active licensees handle 80 percent of all the business. But what we're seeing now is that with the web a number of computer-savvy agents are pulling ahead of their peers. Perhaps the new "rule" will be 85/15 or even 90/10.

Evidence to support such thinking can be found in the 1999 member study just released by the National Association of Realtors.

Nearly nine out of ten Realtors own or lease a computer, according the report, and 62 percent surveyed said they use e-mail and the Internet for business purposes. Nearly three out of ten individual members have a Web page (74 percent said their company has a Web page), and 57 percent report at least 1 percent of their business is generated from on-line services.

What does it all mean? Professionals who use a computer earned $22,600 more than competitors who do not, according to the survey. This is big money when you consider that in 1998 the median gross income for a broker was $63,100, while the typical real estate agent earned $30,300.

The Internet presents new marketing and communication opportunities, and many brokers have shown that they can be effective on the Web. They have also shown something else: predictions that the Internet would replace or devalue most brokers have been wrong.

Question Of The Week

Q Does the new FHA homeowners protection program cover conventional loans?

A No. The FHA program -- which assigns new tasks and responsibilities to appraisers and encourages the use of home inspectors -- does not apply to either conventional loans or VA financing.

Alternatively, buyers as a matter of course, should make the purchase of a home contingent on a home inspection "satisfactory" to them by the individual or company of their choice. If the inspection is not "satisfactory," then the deal is off and the buyer's deposit should be refunded in full.

For proper language and advice, please speak with a broker or attorney.

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