The growing disparity of wealth, not just between those at the top of the income scale and those at the bottom but also those in the middle, has been chosen by a panel of experts as the single most important influence that will shape the American metropolis over the next 50 years.

As might be expected, the group of 149 members of the Society of American City and Regional Planning History had an easier time with the past 50 years, which was covered in part one of this series yesterday, than they did with the next five decades.

But, reports Robert Fishman of Rutgers University, who led a panel of 10 urban specialists in developing a list of 25 possibilities for each era, most of them foresee the continuation and even the intensification of the urban crisis that characterized that last 50 years.

And if they are correct about their prediction concerning the disparity of wealth, some of the negative consequences are detailed in the rest of the list of top influences a perpetual underclass, deterioration of the first-ring suburbs, and greater isolation by the most affluent in gated communities and other exclusive preserves at the edge of the region

Surprisingly, the Internet ranked only sixth on the list. But it might have ranked higher, says Fishman, if its impact on metropolia was clearer.

Here's a rundown of the Society's top ten list:

Published: January 4, 2000

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