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October 10, 2008
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New Sites Seek Share of Old Revenues

Peter G. Miller
OurBroker®

No day passes without an announcement that the some traditional newspaper or magazine is doing great things online. But the more interesting announcements are just the reverse, the news that leading online sites are themselves becoming traditional media.

Been to a newsstand recently? Have you picked up your copy of Yahoo! Internet Life, Garden Escape from Garden.com or EBayMagazine? Are you looking forward to print editions from Expedia and Pets.com -- sites which are said to be launching magazines?

It used to be that newspapers evolved into integrated media companies by purchasing radio stations, TV outlets, and cable systems. Now we have Internet sites starting their own magazines or buying old-line media giants outright -- think of AOL's acquisition of Time-Warner.

We are at an odd moment in Internet growth. Stock premiums for online companies are enormously high, yet traditional media continue to capture most eyeballs and ad revenues. By older standards, results and values don't match -- when Amazon announced that it had a loss of $185 million for the quarter ending December 31st, the stock rose 14 /34 points in a day. Had this been a traditional press-and-paper company it's hard to imagine that its stock value would not have plunged into a deep, dark, financial pit.

But while dot.coms are doing well on Wall Street, traditional media have both real cash and real profits. Just look at online advertising, as an example.

The Internet Advertising Bureau reports that in the third quarter of 1999 online ad revenues topped $1 billion for the first time -- that's an annual "run rate" of $4 billion. That's a lot of money, but folks off-line aren't doing badly either. Robert Coen, senior vice president and director of forecasting for McCann-Erickson Worldwide, estimates that U.S. advertisers spent a total of $215 billion in 1999 -- up 6.8 percent over the year before. In essence, online ads get a lot of ink -- even though they are less than 2 percent of what we spend for advertising nationwide.

Why are new media trying to become the barons of old technology? Because for all the hype and glitter associated with the Internet, most business is done off-line and most sales reported as e-commerce are nothing more than old business that has been re-named.

"Only 6.0 percent (or $720 million of the expected $11.9 billion) of online commerce in 1999 will represent incremental sales -- those that would not have occurred otherwise," says Jupiter Communications, a leading online research firm.

In other words, when a $50 shirt is sold online, it appears that e-commerce volume has increased by $50. In large measure this is a double counting because the shirt would likely have sold anyway, and also because most of the $50 went for off-line costs -- cloth, sewing, shipping, rent, etc.

Real estate has a similar tradition. A big brokerage firm will report "sales" of $1 billion, but little money remains once this total has been reduced by payments to sellers, sales people, and other brokers. The "company dollar" -- cash the firm actually keeps -- is a tiny number when compared with overall sales claims.

For traditional real estate brokers the core issue represented by online growth is not that sales will rise or fall, but rather that sales will shift to new venues online and that Internet sites will come between brokers and consumers. From this position at the center of the transaction, sites will be able to extract fees from brokers, thus raising internal costs and lowering the company dollar still further -- even though it is still local brokers who will do the hard work representing, marketing, bargaining, and deal-making for clients.

The Common-Sense Mortgage

The latest edition of The Common-Sense Mortgage -- in its second printing since September -- is now available in bookstores online and off. In print for nearly 15 years and widely recognized as the standard consumer guide to real estate financing, it's described by syndicated columnist Robert Bruss as "an encyclopedic, detailed summary of just about everything real-estate investors, agents, lenders and borrowers want and need to know about mortgages."

"On my scale of one to 10," says Bruss, "this superb book rates a 10."

"This continues to be the most, lucid, comprehensive treatment of the subject on the market," says The Real Estate Professional. "If you want solid, reliable information about residential real estate financing, written in a thoughtful, convincing style, this is your source."

For additional information, press here.

Question Of The Week

Q I now have a sales license and earn good money. Why do I need a broker's license since I'm now happy with my situation?

A In most states there are two licenses available to those in real estate: a sales license and a broker's license. In general terms, a salesperson works under the authority of a broker and has no right to contract directly with the public.

If you obtained a broker's license you can still work under the authority of your broker (as an associated broker). And you'll get other benefits as well. For instance, as a broker if you leave your current office, you will then be licensed to work for another broker or practice on your own, contract with the public, and have other licensees work under your authority.

Weekly Resource

One of the best ideas online comes from bookmarklets.com. This site offers a large number of small JAVA scripts that site builders can use to create better web pages and additional online features. All you do is find a script you like, save it, and use it -- there's no charge and no complexity.

As an example, suppose you need a web color chart. To see how a bookmarklet script works, just press here.

Published: October 10, 2008

Use of this article without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.





Editor's Note: This article reflects the opinions of Peter G. Miller only and not necessarily the views of this or any other publication, organization or Website owner.

Peter G. Miller, also known as OurBroker®, is the author of six real estate books -- including The Common-Sense Mortgage -- and is the original creator and host of America Online's Real Estate Center.

Peter's weekly columns appear in more than 100 newspapers nationwide, he is also published in a variety of other media outlets and he is a frequent speaker at national events and conventions.

Peter welcomes your questions, comments, and news releases via e-mail at .




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