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Real Estate News and Advice |
November 10, 2009 |
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Buying Strategies For A Market In Transition
by Broderick Perkins
Just how slow the market will go is up for debate, but economic factors converging on the national real estate market could turn against sellers and give buyers more of an edge -- if only for a short time. If Silicon Valley's unexpected April slump is any indication -- and the nation's real estate market often follows -- a correction could be in the works. "In past years, I would say that October through December was the best time of the year to purchase. However, last November saw a 5 percent increase from October which is the first time there was an increase from October to November. It may repeat this year," said real estate statistician Richard Calhoun, broker-owner of San Jose, CA-based Creekside Realty. "Consequently, I might be inclined to say the best opportunity will be in the August-through-October time frame. Buyers will definitely want to be in escrow prior to New Years 2001," said Calhoun. To prepare buyers for the possibility of a market swing in their favor, realty experts offered the following strategies for shopping in a transitional market. "Not getting an education is the worst thing you can do," says Newport Beach, CA-based mortgage broker Randy Johnson, author of "How to Save Thousands of Dollars on Your Home Mortgage" (John Wiley & Sons, Inc.). More specifically, if more than half of the houses remain on the market a month or more before selling and most of them sell for less than asking, it's a cool buyer's market, says George Devine, San Francisco broker and author of "For Sale By Owner In California" (Nolo Press, $24.95). After studying 23 national markets, Ted Jones, chief economist at Houston-based Stewart Title Company, found that a market with nine or more months-of-inventory is considered a buyer's market. Months-, weeks- or days-of-inventory is a theoretical measure of the time it would take to sell all available homes if no more came to market and the current sales pace continued for the duration. Others say a smaller inventory can indicate a buyer's market. "If there is more than 80 days of inventory, it is a buyer's market," says Calhoun. In any event, a seller's market doesn't become a buyer's market over night and if you aren't tracking indicators during the transition it could cost you. "If you are still in doubt about the value of the home, hire a professional appraiser. Spontaneous guesses of value are not what you need," said Joseph Eamon Cummins, author of "Not One Dollar More!: How to Save $3,000 to $30,000 Buying Your Next Home" (John Wiley & Sons, $16.95). "Don't go into this market without preapproval for the loan you will need. Be certain of your maximum budget," said Cummins. "What is the buyer's actual situation? Is he a 'Must Buy', or a 'Could Buy'? If a 'Could Buy' my suggestion is to stay out of the market until a clearer direction is established," said Cummins. "Should this be the peak or near the peak, it could take five or more years for home prices to simply return to their current levels. A homeowner would need still higher prices to cover their transaction costs of buying and selling the home -- you generally need at least 15 percent appreciation just to recoup those costs," said Eric Tyson, co-author of "Home Buying for Dummies" (IDG Books, $16.99). "For those who like to consider the investment perspective of buying versus renting, examine the after-tax monthly cost of buying a given home to the monthly cost of renting that same home. If the two numbers are close, there's generally less danger of buying in that market versus a market where you're paying a substantial premium to buy (probably like the Bay Area now)," said Tyson. Published: May 5, 2000 Use of this article without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws. Related Articles:
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