"Infill" development in which home builders fill in small parcels that have been passed over in previous years will be the favored strategy among housing professionals in the coming year, according to the Urban Land Institute.

In its annual "Mid-Year Outlook," the ULI places infill housing at the top of the list as the construction sector offering the best development prospects.

The Washington-based non-profit education and research group rates infill housing a better bet than seniors housing, office construction, high-income multi-family rentals, resorts, even golf course communities. And many of the 228 ULI members who provided their insights for the forecast agree.

"The days of 'commodity development' more of the same old thing are long past," said G. Ronald Witten of M/PF Research in Dallas. "Development opportunities will be focused on new, freash product concepts, such as infill redevelopment."

James Todd of the Peterson Cos., a Northern Virginia developer, said problems with traffic congestion are forcing his firm to "favor" close-in and infill projects. "As transportation and sprawl-related issues get more challenging," agreed William D'Elia of EDAW in San Francisco, "infill and mixed-use development will increase."

Even apartment specialists are searching for parcels already served by roads, sewer and other important components of the infrastructure. They're not easy to find, but they're worth searching for, said Ed Geraghty of Equity Residential Properties Trust in Atlanta.

"The best multi-family investment/development opportunities will be in harder-to-build infill locations...and in the downtowns of major cities," Geraghty said.

J. Ronald Terwilliger of Trammel Crow Residential, a large, national apartment builder based in Atlanta, said he believes "traffic congestion and the continuing growth of mature, childless households will cause the growth in urban development to become a secular trend continuing over the next decade."

With infill development leading the way, the ULI also expects the entire housing sector to thrive. Even with some slowing in sales resulting from higher mortgage rates, the forecast predicts prices will continue to rise "at a strong pace," albeit slightly below the levels seen over the previous 12 months.

Published: June 7, 2000

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When Lew Sichelman first started writing about housing in 1969, he was the youngest real estate writer in the country. Now, 37 years later, he's one of the oldest -- and most decorated. He has been rated the top housing columnist in the country by the National Association of Realtors as well as by his peers in the National Association of Real Estate Editors. Indeed, NAREE has recognized his work on numerous occasions. One year - due to his advancing age, he can't recall which one - he earned top honors in the annual NAREE Journalism Contest in three out of the four major writing categories. It was the first time one writer has won so many NAREE awards in a single year. Known for his ability to make even the most difficult topics understandable, Sichelman also has been honored by the National Association of Home Builders and the Mortgage Bankers Association. He began providing in-depth coverage of and consumer-oriented information about housing and housing finance at the Washington Daily News, where he was real estate editor. He held that same position for nine more years at the Washington Star, which purchased the News in 1972. The Star, a so-called "writer's newspaper" which also had the misfortune of being an evening paper, was put out of its misery in 1981, and Sichelman, who had begun self-syndicating his column in 1978, decided to become a full-time columnist. Today, his column, "The Housing Scene," is distributed by United Media to newspapers throughout the country. He also is on the staff of National Mortgage News, an independent newspaper which is considered the bible of the mortgage business. And he writes for numerous other publications, including MarketWatch.com, where he answers readers questions once a week, Sports Illustrated (don't ask), RealtyTimes.com, BigBuilder and others. Sichelman is married, the father of five and grandfather of eleven.