Real Estate News and Advice
November 10, 2009



Search Realty Times
 





Let Webcast City webcast your message.



Today's Insider REALTOR Secret









NEED HELP?

Click for Live Support


Call: 214-353-6980





Ultimate Real Estate Success SuperConference


Have We Reached Capitulation?

Lane Newbury, a retired investment banker living in Dallas, says that when the Dow crossed 10,000 a few years ago, he sold his holdings. While he sat on the sidelines during the technology boom, he also avoided the painful slide, and he says that he is just as happy to be avoiding the volatility of the current market.

"The nice thing about owning real estate is that you don't pick up the paper every morning and see what your house is worth," says Newbury. "With stocks, I don't see any sign that we have reached capitulation."

Capitulation? It's the stock market investor's state of crying Uncle. "That's the point that people call their brokers and say, sell everything," explains Newbury.

So if the stock market is too painful for most investors, will real estate and its related stocks look more attractive by comparison?

"You may be seeing some movement in some sectors related to the attacks, but the slide of the markets is about overvaluation, not fear," counsels Newbury.

Continuing low interest rates and new and existing home sales suggest that they might, but conflicting news and data from real estate and home-related stocks indicate that volatility is far from over.

Housing starts were down 6.9 percent in August, signaling a significant drop in new home building. Massive airline layoffs will affect key hubs across the nation, where real estate experts say the impact will certainly be felt.

Homestore's stock is taking the most punishment in the race to capitulation, but it is hard to determine whether the stock is taking a beating, closing at $8.47 Thursday, because of panic on the Street, or because it has yet to make a profit, according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP,) or because investors are worried about their subscription renewals

Homestore would not comment on the state of its stock or speculate on the reasons why it is slumping.

HomeSeekers has already been through its punishment phase, having born the brunt of the dot-com fallout last year. But that didn't stop investors from losing more by the end of trading on Wednesday.

Homeseekers has sold the majority of its holdings to an investor group called Homemark and is awaiting a special shareholder proxy to vote on the sale. Consultant and spokesperson John Giaimo believes that despite the terrorist attacks, business will continue as usual.

"There's a pause due to the enormity of the crisis," said Giaimo. "but, I'm assuming we are still on schedule. There should be a shareholder meeting announcement this week as to when a shareholder vote will be."

Cendant Corp. was hit with the double whammy - having key business models in the real estate and travel industries, both to be heavily affected by traveler fears and massive airline layoffs. Cendant is conducting a formal internal assessment to determine how earnings assessments will be affected.

Shares in Cendant closed at $11.69 Thursday on the NYSE, down from a 52-week high of $21.53, but above the 52-week low of $8.12.

Home improvement leaders, Home Depot and Lowe's, on the other hand, are riding out the storm with slight gains since the terrorist attacks. Analyst upgrades issued Monday and Tuesday raised both stocks from buys and market performs to strong buys. Home Depot earns $1.14 per share and pays a dividend of $0.16 a share, while Lowe's earns $1.16 per share and pays a dividend of $0.08 per share.

"There are two good times to act in the stock market," says Newbury. "When things couldn't look any better and when they look like they can't get worse."

Published: September 21, 2001

Use of this article without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.




Blanche is a renowned author of five real estate books. Her newest, Bubbles, Booms and Busts: Make Money In Any Real Estate Market, McGraw-Hill, was rave-reviewed by The New York Times. She was also selected from hundreds of real estate experts to contribute to Donald Trump's book, Trump: The Best Real Estate Advice I Ever Received: 100 Top Experts Share Their Strategies, Rutledge Hill Press, and is featured on page 68.


Order Now
Review - Honors

In 2006, Blanche was selected among scores of candidates to author two consumer real estate guidebooks for the National Association of Realtors: The NAR Guide to Home Buying, and The NAR Guide to Home Selling, Wiley & Sons. She is currently planning two new books for the NAR and its members.

     

Known for her keen insight into real estate industry issues and for her ability to make complex subjects easy to understand, Blanche is a sought-after keynote and continuing education speaker. Real estate organizations from MLSs, to brokerages, to franchisors, to associations hire her to provide up-to-the-minute analysis of real estate industry news and advice on how to improve revenues. Her passionate delivery, peppered with stinging wit, is a huge hit with audiences and fans.


Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors, Blanche Evans, Richard Courtney, president 2007, GRAR

"The GNAR membership meeting last week featured Blanche Evans as the keynote speaker. Her comments and insights resonated extremely well with those in attendance and we have had many requests for copies of her PowerPoint Presentation. She was a terrific part of the membership meeting and convention program!" - Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors

Coverage from WSMV, Nashville - 8-14-2007

That Interview Guy - Get Inside The Head Of Today's Generation
2007 AE Institute Session - To purchase
2006 AE Institute Session - Parts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
HouseValues Mastermind call - Parts 1 2

Blanche's fireside chat with Jeremy Conaway, HAR - Click here.

For more articles by Blanche, click here.




Ultimate Real Estate Success SuperConference



Real Estate News Network

You must enable Javascript to view the Video content and Navigation on this site.






Spotlight

Ultimate Real Estate Success SuperConference

Today's Headlines



Agent Publicity | Market Conditions Interview | Local Market Conditions | Video Newsletter | Article Index | Terms & Conditions | Privacy | Contact Us

Copyright © 2001 Realty Times®. All Rights Reserved.