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Can Homestore Get Back To Basics?

"Homestore.com's Future Is in Question," says Reuters, a view which raises an important issue: What next?

With many dot-coms the answer would be fairly obvious, a blank space on the Internet spectrum. But there's a catch with Homestore.com: It has actual revenues -- not enough cash coming in to cover costs, but a lot of dollars sloshing around. Could the company break even or perhaps even profit if it adopted a new business plan?

Homestore has in hand a number of assets which may have marketplace value -- the sale of these products, sites, and systems would raise cash, reduce staff, and slash costs. What remains would be a far smaller firm, but perhaps one which the real estate community could support.

For brokers, the interest in Realtor.com, a site operated by Homestore, was driven initially by one factor: Amazon. Amazon showed the power of the Internet as a marketing platform and demonstrated the web's ability to destabilize traditional and local businesses such as bookstores, travel agents, and stockbrokers.

Could the same thing happen to local realty brokers? A few years ago no one denied the possibility. Internet firms -- with massive support from Wall Street, the benefit of new technologies, and a different cost base -- were perceived as a viable competitive threat to local brokers.

As other industries were Amazoned there was much initial support within the real estate community for Realtor.com and its operator, Homestore. The attraction was a national site which would provide consumer access to all NAR members without favoring one over the other. Realtor.com would also do something else: It would provide an alternative to other site developers and listing aggregators.

Had Homestore simply operated Realtor.com, it's probable that a large number of people in real estate would have been very happy. With a supportive broker community, Homestore could have emerged with a solid piece of the mammoth real estate industry, a very nice position.

As a niche business, Homestore would have had little need to acquire other companies or expand its employment base. While revenues would be smaller, costs would be reduced.

The problem with the niche approach is that Wall Street prefers big companies with massive valuations. Small companies with a limited horizon don't have the panache of category killers. This is a concern if you want to lure employees with stock options or buy companies and services with stock instead of cash.

But now there is no choice. As this is written shares with an original IPO price of $20 -- shares which last year sold for more than $120 -- are now worth less than $3.

So how would the new Homestore work? Its product lines would look like this:

  • We host Realtor.com.

  • We sell web sites.

And that's it.

With this formulation there is no need to sell advertising -- there would be no commercial messages to compete with brokers for visitor time and attention. The site would be less complex because there would be no need to have a platform for ads or a need to promote corporate siblings or "strategic partners."

Looking ahead, the revised company must have a far-smaller staff. It needs new management with a clear understanding of the real estate industry. Cash from the sale of current divisions and assets can be used to fund the transition. In the end there will be a business with a clear purpose, understandable economics, and the possibility of success. This may not produce cheers on Wall Street, but it would be welcome by the real estate community.

What Merrill Lynch Thinks

"Homestore's business collapsed in Q3," says Merrill Lynch analyst Henry Blodget. "Although the company persists in attributing most of its problems to the terrorist attacks, this is hard to believe. More plausible is that the company had aggressive revenue recognition and accounting policies, heavily back-end loaded quarters, long-term advertising contracts that were coming up for renewal and (contrary to management's assertions) were performing poorly, and less-than-adequate reserves, all of which hit at the same time. The company is now undertaking a major restructuring, and is finally providing more detail about its revenue composition. This "work-out" is likely to take some time.

"In early October," Blodget says, "Homestore pre-announced that Q3 would be weak (after reaffirming it would be in-line on Sept. 6th). This validating a risk we've highlighted for some time -- that the company's growth could soon hit a wall. Advertising revenue, which management indicated would drive the shortfall, was even weaker than we expected. Management attributed the weakness largely to the September 11 th attacks, but this is implausible. How could advertising revenue be so back-end loaded and, if it was, how could management reaffirm forecasts with so much business left to close in a deteriorating economy? The company missed our original advertising revenue estimate of $51mm by a whopping 35% even though the quarter was about 80% completed at the time of the attacks. Needless to say, credibility may be at the top of the list of many things management needs to fix."

Source: Merrill Lynch, November 2, 2001

For more articles by Peter G. Miller, please press here.

Published: November 6, 2001

Use of this article without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.




Peter G. Miller, also known as OurBroker®, is the author of six real estate books -- including The Common-Sense Mortgage -- and is the original creator and host of America Online's Real Estate Center.

Peter's weekly columns appear in more than 100 newspapers nationwide, he is also published in a variety of other media outlets and he is a frequent speaker at national events and conventions.

Peter welcomes your questions, comments, and news releases via e-mail at .







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