Have the real estate spin doctors started to cry uncle? Judging from the latest information in the various research publications, one cannot but see a softening of the “it’s-all-going-to-be-just-dandy” rhetoric. It’s been replaced with the more subdued and cautious “let’s-wait-and-see-what-happens-next” dialogue.

This softening of their positions does not surprise me, and I am certain it does not surprise those of us who are in the trenches on a day-to-day basis. While I kept reading of late how great the market continued to be, I was hearing agents in most parts of the country lament the slowdowns, the difficulty in moving folks forward and the protracted time it took to secure a listing. The cry around the country from potential sellers is, “We want to list, but we want to wait to see what happens next."

The differing opinions about the health of the real estate market suggest a parallel to me from the time I was a corporate relocation specialist. We would order a couple of appraisals, along with a Broker Price Opinion (BPO), on a property. The three values would come in, and nine out of ten of the times the appraisals would be higher than the BPO. The reason given was usually that the agents had their “pulse” on the market and felt the market shifts more accurately than did the appraisers. It’s all about being in the trenches and watching from a front-row seat. The agents were talking to the consumers while the appraisers were depending largely upon data. Put your money on the agents every day of the week. They were right the majority of the time.

So here we are with the possibility of the real estate perfect storm churning around us. The components of the mother of all storms: consumer confidence down in the dumps, unemployment too high for comfort (especially in the manufacturing segment) and the threat of war coupled with the possibility of escalating oil prices. We should all pray daily that these forces do not meet head on and cause a dismal time for our country.

As real estate professionals, we are wiser if we are forewarned and therefore forearmed. And we can be. When things get tough, we have to get back to the basics. That means working very smart, separating activity from productivity and focusing on creating urgency for the consumer. We must believe that waiting to make a decision could be more costly in the long haul.

Without the benefit of a crystal ball, all we have is what we know today for sure:

• Rates remain favorable
• Real estate is a better investment than anything else out there
• There are ready, willing and able buyers to assist
• Mortgage money is still available, and lenders are spending it
• The market has slowed in many places, and this makes for better deals for buyers
• Sellers who have to move will, no matter what. Find them before they find another agent
• If you price it right, it will sell!

Screw your courage to the wall, get out of your own way, start today and prospect! Remember, your best source of business is those folks who know and trust you. Go to your past clients and customers and ask for their help. Touch base and ask every one of them for a referral. The agents who thrive over the tough times will be the ones who harness the power of their referral base.

Prospect for all kinds of business; i.e. FSBOs, expireds, cold calls, past clients and customers. Work open houses looking for people who have to sell before they can buy (75% of them will); leave no stone overturned.

If the storm hits, it will be tough. If it is not a massive, perfect storm, it may be a storm nonetheless. We still need to harness the resources at hand and work with them to our own ends.

If things worsen, we will lose many agents over the next year. Of this I am certain. There simply are too many folks who came into this business at the height of the market. They never had to face the really tough times. Sorry to say (Remember, I see this everyday as I travel around training agents), but new agents lack the skill to stay the course. When the going gets tough, only the more experienced agents will earn enough to make real estate a viable career.

No, this is not meant to be a gloom and doom prediction. It is simply the way that I see it. There is hope. If you are a newer agent and have not really prospected long and hard to build your business, start doing it right away. Get yourself into the habit of allocating time every day for building your business. Let go of time wasters (lookers and overpriced listings) and focus on high-priority activities.

For this market the highest priorities you can embrace are:

1. Every Monday morning work on bringing in a salable listing first
2. Separate lookers from buyers
3. Get price reductions on all listings you’ve carried for more than 30 days, and
4. Prospect every day for at least 2 hours

If you did this consistently, you would have the foundation you’d need to weather any storm. That is not to say that you might not get tossed around a bit and bruised, but you would be here when the sun came back out, and it will. After all, it always does!

Published: November 27, 2002

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Marylyn B. Schwartz, CSP, is a noted expert in real estate and corporate sales training, team development, customer care and diversity issues. She is president of TEAMWEAVERS and was a trainer for the Floyd Wickman Courses©, Sweathogs® program for over five years. Marylyn is also an author and Business/Life Coach. Contact her at , or visit her website at MarylynBSchwartz.com.