There has been a lot of positive real estate news lately, much of it just in time for the Thanksgiving weekend. Even if some economic news may be short-lived, at least there is a lot to be thankful for now.

As proven by the roller-coaster ups and downs of the last few months, economic data such as weekly job claims and consumer confidence surveys can surprise pundits in the way the data can turn on a dime. In some areas, particularly resort and coastal regions, home sales may slow while home prices continue to rise in a contrarian way.

Interest rates

Yet the flood of cheap money throughout the American economy, thanks to the Fed's lowering of short-term interest rates to banks, has opened up more mortgage loan products to buyers, enabling them to buy with less down, and buy more home than they could otherwise afford. Bank of Texas Mortgage Group is the proper name. I don't know what you meant by market-time. When buyers find the right property, they'll go ahead and buy and will shop the best rates at that time. I see more hedging about the rates on refinances. "Many buyers are holding off committing now, waiting for more security in their jobs and the market, as well as seeing what the new year will bring.

Home sales

Easy money is one of the factors driving near-record home sales. According to the NAR, existing-home sales increased 6.1 percent in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million units from an upwardly revised level of 5.44 million units in September. What is remarkable is that last month's sales rate was 9.5 percent above the 5.27-million unit pace set in October 2001, and was tied for the third-highest pace on record.

The picture was equally rosy for new home sales, which reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.01 million units in October, down 4.5 percent from an upwardly revised, all-time high rate of 1.05 million units in September, according to the Commerce Department. October was the third consecutive month in which new-home sales have broken the million-unit pace, says the government. NAHB president Gary Garczynski said that 2002 will almost certainly be the best year in history for new-home sales and that, even with some anticipated slowing of activity in months ahead, 2003 and 2004 are likely to be the second- and third-best years on record, respectively.

The NAHB is currently projecting that new-home sales for all of 2002 will reach nearly 960,000, up substantially from the current record of 908,000 units set in 2001.

Interest rates will likely continue to remain low, which will serve the first-time homebuyers, which is the market that enables the move-up buyer to trade homes.

"In recent weeks, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has moved lower, briefly dipping below 6.0 percent," says NAR President Cathy Whatley. "Right now there's very little pressure on interest rates to move much higher, so we'll have favorable affordability conditions for some time to come." Jobs

While there are many who are still jobless, it has to be generally good news that jobless claims appear to be slowing. The Labor Department has released advance figures for seasonally adjusted initial claims for first-time unemployment insurance that show initial jobless claims were 364,000, a decrease of 17,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 381,000. The 4-week moving average was 385,750, a decrease of  11,250 from the previous week's revised average of 397,000. This is the lowest level of initial jobless claims since before the recession began in early 2001.

Consumer confidence

Personal income increased $7.7 billion, or 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $14.2 billion, or 0.2 percent, in October, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. According to the Commerce Department, consumer spending rebounded more than expected in October from weak late-summer levels. Higher incomes encourages personal spending, and October also saw a personal spending recovery to a 0.4 percent gain in October, after falling an unrevised 0.4 percent a month earlier.

In a related survey, researchers at the University of Michigan found that consumer sentiment has risen off of nine-year lows to a consumer sentiment index of 84.2 in November, up from the 80.6 in October. Although the index failed to meet economists expectations of a 85.4 reading, the nation generally accepted the upturn as good news.

All of these indicators are positive for the housing market. While the short-term outlook looks good for continued home sales, the market could turn once again on bad news. Let's be thankful for the good news we have now.

Published: November 29, 2002

Use of this article without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.