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Real Estate News and Advice |
July 6, 2009 |
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2004 Market Could Dull Renters' Negotiating Edge
by Broderick Perkins
If your housing plan includes rental housing for the next year or so, now's the time to negotiate a long-term lease that locks in today's concessions. Renters who aren't yet ready to buy, but lock in long-term, cheaper rents now could be in a better position to save money to buy a home later. The coming changes in rental market conditions vary by region, but two new apartment housing industry reports indicate 2004 could come with the beginning of the end of incentives landlords have been using in recent years to woo renters. Forecasts of economic recovery, job growth, shortages in rental housing, greater demand from immigrants and falling affordability in the home-buying market could all combine to spawn higher rents and fewer concessions. "Asking rents will rise by 1.5 percent in 2004 and effective rents will grow faster as concessions begin to wane in the face of improving demand. Revenues are set to rise as a result, although higher insurance, energy and deferred maintenance costs will challenge operators," according to Marcus & Millichap's latest National Apartment Report. The report's findings are based, in part, on these market conditions: Marcus & Millichap says renters are already behind the eight ball in hot areas -- Orange County, San Diego, Los Angeles and Riverside-San Bernardino, CA markets, as well as Fort Lauderdale, FL. Landlords in Las Vegas, NV; Washington, D.C.; Boston, MA and more California cities, Oakland and San Francisco are already benefiting from low levels of new rental housing and the expected employment gains, according to Marcus & Millichap. That jibes with news from Novato, CA-based RealFacts, which reports on the Western U.S. market and recently revealed occupancy levels just at or above 95 percent in Los Angeles, Oakland, Orange, San Diego, San Francisco as well as California's Inland Empire and Las Vegas, NV. "As property managers struggle to increase occupancy and maintain asking rents, lessees are offered an array of concessions such as lease-signing bonuses; free weeks and months rent; and added amenities such as washers, dryers and free parking. In the hardest hit rental markets -- such as those of Texas and northern California -- many property managers offer potential tenants both reductions in asking rents as well as significant concessions that lower effective rents. In the Dallas/Ft. Worth market, for example, while asking rents declined 3.5 percent over the year, concessions reduced effective rents in some apartment complexes by as much as 20 percent," according to RealFacts. Marcus & Millichap said renters could maintain their negotiating edge in Atlanta, GA; Denver, CO and Texas towns, Dallas and Houston, but the report warns high vacancy rates could be a transient condition if the market of renters out paces the supply. Not faring as well as its neighbors to the north, the San Jose, CA metropolitan area (Silicon Valley's Capital) still suffers relatively high rents, but persistent vacancies from the dot com demise has kept landlords hopping with concessions and hoping for more renters. Change there isn't expected until 2005. Uncertainty was found in the mixed markets of Jacksonville and Orlando FL; New York; N.Y.; Portland, OR and Seattle, WA, according to Marcus & Millichap. "Although occupancy rates slipped in many markets during the fourth quarter, in most markets rents were relatively stable. Rent declines, where they occurred, were modest. Even in San Jose, the only market to experience a fourth quarter decline in rents of more than one percent, the rate of decline was significantly less than that of a year ago. While rents have yet to rebound in most markets, the worst seems to have passed. Still, occupancy levels will need to improve in most markets for there to be the constricted supply and excess demand conditions necessary for sustainable rent growth," RealFacts reported on the Western U.S. market. Published: January 28, 2004 Use of this article without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws. Related Articles:
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