The housing market should continue to bolster the economy in 2004, perhaps with even greater support than it has in recent years.

Twelve percent of adults 18 and older plan to buy a home this year, 48 percent of them do not currently own a home and 52 percent of them do own. More than 4-in-10 (43 percent) plan to buy a newly built home and 57 percent will buy an existing home, according to "Is The U.S. Housing Boom About To Bust?," an Ipsos poll released Feb. 26.

"Toward the end of last year there was a lot in the press about concerns it was going to be a tough year for housing market and that made people nervous," said Greg Mahon, senior vice president of financial services at Ipsos-Insight, an international survey-based market research group.

"This shows consumers are still going to support the housing market to the extent that there shouldn't be any concern from the housing market's standpoint," he added.

The survey is on par with forecasts from both the National Association of Realtors and the National Association of Home Builders.

The Ipsos survey found continued strength in the equity and refinance mortgage markets with seven percent of homeowners surveyed planning to tap their equity this year and nine percent planning to refinance.

Economic supply and demand theory would indicate the mortgage demand could put upward pressure on rates, but that isn't expected to happen because of the slow-growing, job-hungry economy.

"You would think rates would go up, but it is not going to have a major effect because it puts money back into the hands of lenders and with the massive budget deficit, that's a critical part of the story. The economic situation is one where we are not putting people back to work," said mortgage expert Jack Guttentag, the "Mortgage Professor."

Mahon added, "Greenspan is not going to touch rates through June and that bodes very well."

Earlier this month, Ipsos conducted telephone interviews among a nationally representative U.S. sample of 1,001 adults age 18 and older, of which 647 were homeowners.

"Last year was the best ever (for the housing market) and we are having another year like that," Mahon added.

Of those who intend on securing equity, 51 percent are going after a home equity loan and 49 percent will use a home equity line of credit (HELOC).

In the past 3 years, 36 percent of homeowners surveyed have already refinanced their home.

"Our findings indicate that there is still tremendous opportunity, so long as interest rates don’t rise substantially," added Mahon.

"Currently, all indications seem to suggest that rates will remain stagnant for the next six months, which portends favorably for consumers, financial services companies, and the U.S. economy," he said.

Earl Peattie, vice president of the National Financial News Service says lenders who want a slice of the pie will remain competitive with low rates even with continued strong demand.

"Just on the basis of people wanting to stay in business they will turn to the competitive side in pricing. Banks are really the champions of home equity. They really go after that market to keep the loan. They can really cut deals. Right now, you get deals below prime for 3.5 percent. You have to have really good credit, but overall the banks will do whatever they can to market themselves," Peattie said.

The same is true in the refinance market.

"The refi market is driven somewhat by mortgage-backed securities and lenders can also be aggressive and cut their margins and be in and out of the market however they want to compete," said Peattie.

Published: February 27, 2004

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Broderick Perkins parlayed a career in old-school journalism into a contemporary digital news service that really hits home. The award-winning consumer journalist, originally from Wilmington, DE, is founder, publisher and executive editor of the bootstrap DeadlineNews Group, a Silicon Valley-based editorial content and consulting service specializing in residential real estate, consumer news and related editorial consulting services. The DeadlineNews Group includes the website, DeadlineNews.com, offering real estate editorial content and consulting services, and its back shop, the Deadline Newsroom, an open house on news that really hits home. Perkins obtained his formal journalism education from University of Delaware and a journalism boot camp, the Institute of Journalism Education at the University of California-Berkeley. He went on to 20 years of service as a daily newspaper journalist at the Wilmington, DE News Journal and San Jose, CA Mercury News. Perkins covered housing on the San Jose Mercury News reporting team which earned a General News Reporting Pulitzer Prize in 1989 for coverage of the Loma Prieta earthquake. He has also produced real estate, consumer and small business content for the Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, RealtyTimes.com, Nolo.com, Better Homes and Gardens, the National Association of Realtors, Homestore/Move and Intuit/Quicken among more than three dozen publications. In addition to managing the DeadlineNews Group, Perkins most recently served as chief editorial consultant for Nolo's Essential Guide To Buying Your First Home, Nolo, and writes real estate television scripts for RealtyTimes.com.