In addition to rising consumer debt, rising interest rates, inflation, low job and wage growth and many other quantifiable, verifiable factors, there are other equally deadly reasons why buyers may back off of housing, particularly older housing.

While these reasons can't be supported by anything other than empirical data, they are adding to the winds that are whipping up the perfect real estate storm.

Most at risk of taking a beating is older housing, which is the majority of inventory available for sale in most communities. The largest housing inventory bulges are homes built from the 1950s and 1970s, eras when homes were half the square footage with half the bedrooms and baths that are available now in new homes. Just to equal the size, if not the amenities of a new homes, older homes must compete with extensive remodeling, a task many sellers and buyers simply don't want to take on.

And when buyers and sellers stalemate, the housing market goes stagnant.

Why will older housing be hit hardest in the real estate storm? New housing, with rare exceptions, eliminates many buyer concerns with modern floorplans, amenities, building-code compliance, and energy features that suit the ever-targeted dual-income couple with children. Fixtures and appliances, and even labor, come with warranties, short as they may be.

Older houses come with lots of baggage.

Typical older home problems

• Minefield disclosures: As noble as the seller disclosure process is, it brings up many issues to buyers that they didn't know they would have to deal with, such as the age of fixtures, roofs, foundations and other items that are pricey to fix. Insurance companies will no longer insure homes with roofs that have overlays, so sellers may be looking at completely replacing roofs at tens of thousands of dollars to please reluctant buyers. Inspections make matters worse, as inspectors are noting every crack in the driveway to avoid liability in this too-litigious world. Many agents are finding that getting a home under contract isn't difficult - it's getting it to closing that's hard.

• Environmental issues: When companies like Home Depot, the largest clearinghouse in the nation for sub-contracting, refuses to take up old floors to remodel a home because of asbestos issues, then it's all over but the crying. Radon, lead paint and other issues are serious problems for older homes.

• Money pit houses - The biggest fear that buyers have about older homes is unexpected, expensive repairs, including plumbing leaks that lead to mold, electrical outlet inadequacies, and air and heat problems, none of which can be repaired under four figures. New homes, with rare exception, make all those concerns go away.

• Cost of improvements: A trip to a home improvement store is daunting. Plantation shutters cost more a linear foot $145 than most new homes cost to build per square foot. As the cost of lumber, cement and other materials continue to skyrocket, sellers may attempt to defer improvements on to buyers, who may punish unimproved homes with lower offers.

• Rising costs of building materials: Lumber and concrete have gone through the roof, pardon the pun, causing shortages in many areas, driving up costs for builders and delaying production. The costs go up even more for homeowners and buyers who want materials for smaller jobs and may end up paying a premium to pour a driveway or build an addition. It's yet another reason why buyers will prefer that the work is already done.

• Remodeling nightmares: Contractors are among the most complained-about professionals, and the main reason is it is the largest unregulated industry associated with housing that there is. Real estate agents have to be licensed to sell real estate and are subjected to ongoing oversights by state associations, but builders and contractors can conduct business with no license, and in most cases, no liability.

  The idea of going through a remodeling job with a flaky contractor gives most people the willies whether they are buyers or sellers. Buyers would prefer the home seller has improvements already done. Sellers prefer to take a little less to let the buyer have all the fun. The result? A stagnant market where houses aren't moving.

• Builder incentives: Not only can buyers pick out what they want for new homes, many builders across the country are offering irresistible incentives such as no closing costs (they make it up in a higher interest rate on the loan, but that's another story) free upgrades on certain products or appliances, and free landscaping. And they're more nimble than existing home sellers. As soon as traffic starts to slow at the model, they start upping the upgrades to turn inventory.

• Arbitrary Realtor zoning: Realtors shoot themselves and their buyers and sellers in the feet by declaring zones of good or bad housing. Any housing that is chosen based on north or south of this avenue or west or east of that landmark, is in danger of inflation and recession. These boundaries, which are often arbitrary, chosen by me-too-thinking, and supported by only their own reluctance to expand their territories of influence, become war zones of economics. Certain areas then become blessed with multiple-offers and teardowns turn into McMansions, while other neighborhoods with perhaps as many desirable features, languish.

These problems would be easier to overcome if older houses were in areas that are revitalized by city planners and supported by Realtors, but the exodus of higher-salaried homebuyers to new suburbs makes it difficult. The lower the city coffers get, the less money there is to invest in roads, schools, law enforcement and economic development and the less enthusiastic Realtors are about endorsing certain neighborhoods, and they certainly aren't endorsing neighborhoods where buyers and sellers both refuse to do improvements.

That's the real kiss of death for older homes, where the future is decline, and sales sink to lot value before revitalization can take place again.

Published: June 25, 2004

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Blanche Evans is the award-winning senior editor of Realty Times, the Internet's leading independent real estate news service. She is featured daily on the Realty Times Video Network in the "Realty Viewpoint" segment. Blanche has been named one of the "25 Most Influential People In Real Estate" by REALTOR Magazine, and has been twice recognized as a "notable." In 2005, she was named "Top Reporter Covering the NAR" by Delahaye-Bacon's. Blanche is a renowned author of five real estate books. Her newest, Bubbles, Booms and Busts: Make Money In Any Real Estate Market, McGraw-Hill, was rave-reviewed by The New York Times. She was also selected from hundreds of real estate experts to contribute to Donald Trump's book, Trump: The Best Real Estate Advice I Ever Received: 100 Top Experts Share Their Strategies, Rutledge Hill Press, and is featured on page 68. Order Now Review - Honors In 2006, Blanche was selected among scores of candidates to author two consumer real estate guidebooks for the National Association of Realtors: The NAR Guide to Home Buying, and The NAR Guide to Home Selling, Wiley & Sons. She is currently planning two new books for the NAR and its members.       Known for her keen insight into real estate industry issues and for her ability to make complex subjects easy to understand, Blanche is a sought-after keynote and continuing education speaker. Real estate organizations from MLSs, to brokerages, to franchisors, to associations hire her to provide up-to-the-minute analysis of real estate industry news and advice on how to improve revenues. Her passionate delivery, peppered with stinging wit, is a huge hit with audiences and fans. Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors, Blanche Evans, Richard Courtney, president 2007, GRAR "The GNAR membership meeting last week featured Blanche Evans as the keynote speaker. Her comments and insights resonated extremely well with those in attendance and we have had many requests for copies of her PowerPoint Presentation. She was a terrific part of the membership meeting and convention program!" - Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors Coverage from WSMV, Nashville - 8-14-2007 That Interview Guy - Get Inside The Head Of Today's Generation 2007 AE Institute Session - To purchase 2006 AE Institute Session - Parts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 HouseValues Mastermind call - Parts 1 2 Blanche's fireside chat with Jeremy Conaway, HAR - Click here. To contact Blanche, email her at . For more articles by Blanche, click here.